Lions at Packers (-11.5)

Aaron Rodgers is obviously the headline here. He had his worst On-Target% in years (64%) against the Saints.

You might recall that last October he had a similarly heinous performance against the Bucs. In the surrounding games, he completed 50 of 67 passes (75% on-target) for a combined 610 yards and 8 touchdowns with no interceptions.

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Against the Lions in 2020, he combined for an 80% On-Target% with a combined 530 yards and five touchdowns with no picks. The biggest note here, though, is the pressure rate of just 16% in those games. Rodgers should have time to work. And yes, if you like, you can add in that extra little something that we see with Rodgers in primetime hosting a division foe. If the Packers don’t put up a big number here, then you have my permission to stop R-E-L-A-Xing.

That down game from Rodgers probably dipped the line a bit, and we might have been looking at a two-touchdown line if the Lions hadn’t surged back in the fourth quarter of their loss at home to the 49ers.

Through three quarters, the Lions were down by three touchdowns and Jared Goff had less than 6 yards per attempt with an average throw depth of 3 yards. In TWENTY-NINE fourth-quarter attempts, he tripled his average throw depth… and still had 6 yards per attempt. 

Like with Tua in Miami, Goff wasn’t helped by his receivers. Their -0.06 Receiving Points Earned per play in Week 1 was the worst in the league thanks to a concerning seven drops.

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