2026 NFL Awards Odds: Best Futures Bets
- Trevor Lawrence AP MVP Award (+2500)
- Andrew Thomas Protector of the Year (+2800)
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Best 2026 NFL Player Awards Bet: Trevor Lawrence AP MVP Award (+2500)
The AP MVP Award is a quarterback award.
Period.
Adrian Peterson was the last non-quarterback to win the MVP in 2012, and LaDainian Tomlinson is the only other non-quarterback to capture the hardware in the last 20 years, doing so in 2006.
Any MVP bet on a non-quarterback is lighting money on fire.
The last 13 award-winning quarterbacks have been on successful teams.
Matt Ryan’s 2016 Falcons won 11 games, the fewest wins for a team led by an MVP quarterback during that stretch.
Nine of the winners in the last 13 years have quarterbacked the No. 1 seed in their conference, and three have led their team to the No. 2 seed.
Matthew Stafford was an outlier last year.
The Rams won 12 games, but they didn’t even capture the NFC West title.
Instead, they were the NFC’s No. 5 seed.
Josh Allen won the 2024 MVP Award when the Bills were the AFC’s No. 2 seed.
Lamar Jackson was nipping at his heels in that vote, but the Ravens were only the conference’s No. 3 seed.
Winning games is still clearly important to voters, but the last two years might indicate the rigidity of being a top-two seed has loosened.
If that’s the case, the pool of viable MVP candidates might be more vast than it was as recently as 2023.
As a result, I’m open to hunting value at quarterback a little lower down the board.
Trevor Lawrence fits the bill.
Lawrence got off to a slow start in his first year in Liam Coen’s offense before catching fire at the end of the year.
Lawrence tallied the following marks through Week 7, with rankings among 34 qualified quarterbacks in parentheses:
- -0.04 expected points added (EPA) per play (26th)
- 231.5 passing yards per game (15th)
- 5.24 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) (25th)
- 58.7% completion percentage (33rd)
- 9 passing touchdowns (tied for 18th)
- 3.5% passing touchdown rate (tied for 24th)
- 5 interceptions (tied for 26th)
- 1.9% interception rate (tied for 18th)
- 40.5% success rate (27th)
Lawrence was measurably bad before Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye.
As the following numbers from Week 9 through Week 18 illustrate, Lawrence erupted down the stretch:
- 0.16 EPA per play (5th)
- 238.7 passing yards per game (9th)
- 7.26 ANY/A (3rd)
- 62.8% completion percentage (18th)
- 20 passing touchdowns (2nd)
- 6.6% passing touchdown rate (4th)
- 7 interceptions (tied for 26th)
- 2.3% interception rate (tied for 19th)
- 49.7% success rate (4th)
In theory, it makes sense for a quarterback’s play to improve with more reps in a new offensive system.
That said, Lawrence also enjoyed two meaningful changes at the end of the year.
The Jaguars traded for Jakobi Meyers, who made his debut with the club in Week 10.
Parker Washington’s role also expanded during that run.
According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Washington had a 47.4% route participation rate from Week 1 through Week 7 before jumping to a 75.6% route participation rate from Week 9 through Week 18.
The Meyers acquisition and Washington ascension coincided with Travis Hunter suffering a season-ending injury in Week 7.
Hunter is healthy, but it appears he’ll primarily play defense and mix in on offense.
Still, having Hunter in the fold as insurance and as an additional weapon on offense, even in a limited capacity, is a plus for Lawrence’s passing outlook.
Beyond passing, Lawrence also adds value as a runner.
He ran for a career-high 359 yards (21.1 per game) and a career-high 9 touchdowns last season.
Lawrence has a path to piling up eye-catching, MVP-worthy touchdown and yardage totals.
Furthermore, if the Jaguars can repeat as the AFC South champion and finish ahead of the Texans and their vaunted defense, that could earn him narrative-based votes.
Lawrence offers gamblers enticing long odds on a legitimate MVP candidate.
Best 2026 NFL Player Awards Bet: Andrew Thomas Protector of the Year (+2800)
Protector of the Year is a fun award to take a shot on.
Joe Thuney was the inaugural winner last year, getting the guards on the board first.
Tackles Garett Bolles and Penei Sewell, guard Quinn Meinerz, and centers Aaron Brewer and Creed Humphrey were the other finalists.
Thus, tackles, guards, and centers each had a pair of representatives among the finalists.
Bettors shouldn’t immediately eliminate any positions along the offensive line from consideration for the Protector of the Year award.
As a result, the market is loaded with enticing odds for many supremely talented offensive linemen.
Looking back at last year could provide insight into what voters valued when they voted for Thuney as the inaugural Protector of the Year.
According to ESPN, Thuney had the highest pass-block win rate among guards.
Per TruMedia, Thuney played 1,098 offensive snaps, split into 454 run-blocking snaps and 644 pass-blocking snaps across 17 games.
He was credited with allowing 0 sacks, 15 pressures, 14 hurries, and 1 quarterback hit.
Among 147 offensive linemen with at least 650 blocking snaps in 2025, Thuney earned Pro Football Focus’ (PFF’s) third-highest pass-blocking grade behind Bolles and Laremy Tunsil but was only 51st in run blocking.
Leaning more toward pass blocking makes intuitive sense for a protection award.
That said, the criteria laid out for the Protector of the Year include skills, metrics, impact, leadership, durability, and strength of opponent.
The durability portion of the equation is a legitimate knock against Andrew Thomas.
The fourth pick in the 2020 NFL Draft has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career, missing or sitting out at least one game in five straight years since playing in all 16 contests in his rookie season.
In Thomas’ defense, the Giants rested their starters in Week 18 of the 2022 season, the only game he missed that year.
Still, working backward from 2025 through 2023, Thomas has been limited to 13, 6, and 10 games.
He’ll need to stay healthy to be in the mix for the Protector of the Year, but that’s baked into his +2800 odds.
Fortunately, Thomas’ injuries haven’t diminished his impact on the field.
He trailed only Tristan Wirfs and Zach Bako-Bewele (formerly known as Zach Tom) among qualified tackles in ESPN’s pass-block win rate.
Thomas also allowed just 2 sacks, 14 pressures, 10 hurries, and 2 quarterback hits.
In addition, Thomas was fourth in PFF’s pass-blocking grade and tied for 14th in run blocking.
Like Thuney benefiting from Chicago’s offensive line and offense performing better in 2025 than in 2024, Thomas’ case for winning the Protector of the Year could get a big lift if Big Blue’s offense performs better this year than in 2025.
Moreover, if Jaxson Dart’s sack rate improves in his sophomore campaign as Caleb Williams’ did from his first year to his second, that could help Thomas.
If Thomas stays healthy, his odds will almost certainly get shorter than +2800 as the season goes along.
So, getting some action on that number now is appealing.