Well, we’re finally here!
It’s Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season, and it all gets underway on Thursday when the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys.
We’ll be looking at three props this week: George Pickens’ touchdown scoring potential, Travis Kelce's reception total, and Aaron Jones’ pass-catching ability.
Of course, Week 1 can always come with a bit of chaos, but let’s try to parse through it all.
Week 1 Prediction: George Pickens Anytime TD Scorer (+220)
With the Cowboys trading away edge rusher Micah Parsons, I believe, even further, that they’ll be trailing early and often in this game.
The Cowboys are 7.5-point underdogs, which bodes well for a game script in which Dak Prescott will have to throw early and often, and his new wide receiver, George Pickens, will benefit.
These two players have skill sets that align quite well.
In 2024, through just eight games, 11.9% of Prescott’s attempts went for 20-plus yards downfield.
He had 4 touchdown passes and 4 drops on those attempts.
Going back to 2023, across 17 games, Prescott tossed 10 touchdowns and threw for 1,024 yards on passes of 20-plus yards downfield.
He was fifth in the NFL in pass attempts 20-plus yards downfield with 73.
It’s important to consider that, before getting Pickens, he didn’t really have a player who was a consistent downfield presence.
For context, Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb saw 11.6% of his targets go 20-plus yards downfield in 2024 and 15.6% in 2023.
Pickens was at 29% in 2024 and 21.2% in 2023.
Now, Pickens has a quarterback who wants to throw deep and has had success, and Prescott has a guy who can get downfield and make something happen.
A touchdown seems more than feasible in this matchup.
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Week 1 Prediction: Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (+123)
Yes, there are narratives out there about Travis Kelce’s age, but I think he could be for a solid season debut against the Chargers.
At +123 on his over at 5.5 receptions, we’ve got to take a chance.
The Chiefs' passing attack isn’t quite what it used to be, but the team still averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game last season (ninth in the league).
In Week 1, the Chiefs will have wide receiver Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown in the lineup, but fellow wide receiver Rashee Rice will be out for six games as he serves his suspension.
Kelce got off to a slow start in 2024.
Over the first three games, these were his game logs:
- Week 1: 4 targets, 3 receptions, 34 yards, 0 touchdowns.
- Week 2: 3 targets, 1 reception, 5 yards, 0 touchdowns.
- Week 3: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 30 yards, 0 touchdowns.
These were all games in which Kelce was co-existing with Rice.
In Week 4, the Chiefs took on the Chargers, and Rice suffered a knee injury.
With him out, Kelce caught 7 passes on 9 targets for 89 yards.
Against the Chargers later in the season, he caught 5 passes on 6 targets for 45 yards.
Overall, Kelce was targeted on 24.4% of his routes without Rice on the field last season.
That number was 16.2% of his routes when Rice was on the field, albeit in a small sample.
For another data point, opposing tight ends averaged 5.39 receptions per game against the Chargers.
So, while Brown is in the lineup, I don’t believe he’ll demand the same level of targets Rice would have.
It’s also early in the season before wear and tear hits Kelce.
Expect a fairly strong start to the season for Kelce with Rice out, and it begins in Week 1.
Week 1 Prediction: Aaron Jones Over 2.5 Receptions (-112)
In 2024, Jones saw 62 targets and caught 51 passes for 408 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Among all running backs, he was ninth in targets, tied for seventh in receptions, and seventh in yards.
In Week 1, Jones will take on the Chicago Bears.
In Week 12 last season, he caught 3 passes against them, and in Week 15, he had 2 — the Bears did change defensive coordinators this offseason.
I understand there could be concern with Jones as a whole with the acquisition of former San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason and his success with them last season during Christian McCaffrey’s absence, but he’s not someone who was really ever involved in the passing game.
He finished with more than 1 reception in just three games in 2024.
The Vikings' receiving options are a bit limited, too, with Jordan Addison suspended for three games.
They still have Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and the recently traded for Adam Thielen.
This will be the first NFL start of Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s career, so there could be something to be said about him “hitting singles and doubles,” with easy completions to get into a rhythm.
In his final season at Michigan in college, McCarthy completed 82% of his passes 0-9 yards downfield.
Overall, 54.9% of his attempts were either behind the line of scrimmage or 0-9 yards downfield.
With Jones being a running back, it shouldn’t come as a surprise, but nearly 90% of his catches came in those areas of the field.
On top of that, Jones caught 3 passes or more in 10 of 17 games last season.
In the game in which he caught 2 passes against the Bears, the Vikings won the game 30-12.
Now, the Vikings are just 1.5-point favorites, so I’d expect a much closer game that’ll allow for more potential reception opportunities for Jones, especially with a top receiver out due to suspension.
