The NFL season moves quickly, and believe it or not, we’re already at Week 3.
We have the Buffalo Bills hosting the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East battle on Thursday night, and the surprising Colts are traveling to face the Titans on Sunday.
I’ll be zeroing in on Tua Tagovailoa’s interceptions and Calvin Ridley‘s receiving yardage.
Let’s dive in.
Week 3 Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa 1+ Interceptions (-156)
Given the odds of -156 and an implied probability of 60.94%, this may not be the most “under the radar” prop bet, but the goal when betting is to place a winning bet.
Therefore, picking Tagovailoa to have at least 1 interception is the right move.
This season, quarterbacks facing the Bills have played against their Cover 1, Cover 2, Cover 3, and Cover 4 packages on 48 of their 53 dropbacks (90.6%).
Here are the opposing quarterbacks' stats against each of these:
- Cover 1: 11 dropbacks, 6 completions, 10 attempts, 60% completion rate, 99 passing yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions.
- Cover 2: 12 dropbacks, 3 completions, 7 attempts, 42.9% completion rate, -5 passing yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions.
- Cover 3: 16 dropbacks, 8 completions, 13 pass attempts, 61.5% completion rate, 85 passing yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions.
- Cover 4: 9 dropbacks, 5 completions, 8 attempts, 62.5% completion rate, 60 passing yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions.
This is important because, as you can see, the Bills run a mix of coverages.
Now, how has Tagovailoa done against those same coverages this season?
- Cover 1: 7 dropbacks, 2 completions, 6 attempts, 33.3% completion rate, 74 passing yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions.
- Cover-2: 24 dropbacks, 16 completions, 18 attempts, 88.9% completion rate, 157 passing yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions.
- Cover-3: 12 dropbacks, 7 completions, 11 pass attempts, 63.6% completion rate, 92 passing yards, no touchdowns, 2 interceptions.
- Cover-4: 11 dropbacks, 7 completions, 10 attempts, 70% completion rate, 64 passing yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception.
So, all three of Tagovailoa’s interceptions this season have come against either Cover 3 or Cover 4.
He’s had 64 total dropbacks, and 23 of them (36%) have been against those coverages.
Collectively, Tagovailoa has completed 14 of 21 passes on 23 droopbacks for 160 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions against Cover 3 and Cover 4.
Not only that, but against zone coverage in general, 9.1% of Tagovailoa’s passes have been off-target, and that doesn’t count spikes or throwaway passes.
The Bills run Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 47.2% of their defensive plays.
Overall, this season, Tagovailoa has 5 turnover-worthy plays.
He’s been pressured on 27.3% of his dropbacks and has completed 6 of 10 passes for 81 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 turnover-worthy plays.
We also have to take into account that offensive lineman Austin Jackson has been placed on injured reserve, and another offensive lineman, Aaron Brewer, has been limited in practice this week.
Therefore, his projected starting five offensive linemen are Patrick Paul, Brewer (if he suits up), Jonah Savaiinaea, Kion Smith, and Larry Borom.
Combined, they’ve allowed 15 pressures and 4 sacks.
Finally, over his last three games against the Bills, Tagovailoa has thrown 5 interceptions with multiple interceptions in two of those three games.
To summarize: Tagovailoa has thrown all of his interceptions this season against coverages that the Bills play nearly half the time, he has a recent history of interceptions against the Bills, his offensive line is dreadful, and, due to the 12.5-point spread, he’ll likely need to throw, allowing for more interception opportunities.
Don't Miss Out on the Best Betting Recommendations Available
Warren Sharp is entering his 20th year providing winning betting recommendations to clients.
He has hit on 57% of his lifetime college recommendations, including 73% of his top selections.
A $100 bettor was up $15,636 following Warren’s picks for both college and the NFL last season.
Click here to learn more about 2025 Betting Packages!
Week 3 Prediction: Calvin Ridley 50+ Receiving Yards (-128)
Heading into Week 3 against the Indianapolis Colts, Ridley leads the Titans in team target share at 25%.
He’s caught 7 of 14 targets for 84 yards (12 yards per catch) and no touchdowns.
Ridley also runs a route on 92% of the team’s quarterback dropbacks, and he leads all Titans wide receivers in 20-plus yard receiving percentage at 28.6%.
Going further, Ridley is seventh among qualified receivers in target share when facing zone coverage, seeing 33.3% of Tennessee's targets in those situations.
To add, he’s tied for several in overall targets with 15.
He’s caught 9 of those for 121 yards (13.4 yards per catch), and 33.3% of those have gone for 20 yards or more.
His 13.4 yards per catch average is the second-highest among all players with a team target share of 14.2% or higher against zone.
As for zone coverage, the Colts play it on 70% of their defensive plays.
Further, 39.7% of opposing quarterback dropbacks have been against Cover 3.
Against this Lou Anarumo-led Cover 3 defense, opposing quarterbacks are 20 of 27 (74.1%) for 204 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions.
So, yes, they’ve been picking off passes, but opposing quarterbacks have completed plenty of passes, too.
This season, Ridley has run more routes versus Cover 3 than any other coverage.
He’s run 24 routes and caught 3 passes on 5 targets for 57 yards, along with 26 yards after the catch.
Ridley and rookie wide receiver Elic Ayomanor are tied for team target share (21.7%) versus Cover 3.
As for Ridley’s per-game numbers, he’s averaging 3.5 catches and 42 yards per game.
However, he had an even better game in Week 2, catching 3 of 6 targets for 57 yards (19 yards per reception) including one catch that went for 26 yards.
Ridley has run a mix of routes this season, but the majority include the following:
- Go Routes: 12
- Hitch, Out, Post: 10
The Colts have allowed the most production to out routes this season, surrendering 6 catches on 11 targets for 65 yards and a touchdown.
Let’s also consider that, when Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward has been pressured, he’s looked to Ridley the most.
It’s not by much (five targets versus the next closest with four), but still, he’s looking his way.
That said, the Colts' pass rush has only pressured opposing quarterbacks on 12 of their dropbacks, which is the second-lowest in the league.
It’s been a tough start to the year for Ward, but he’s also had to open the season on the road against the Denver Broncos and at home against the Los Angeles Rams.
These are two fantastic defensive fronts, which, for context, have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 37 (third in the NFL) and 30 (tied for eighth) of their dropbacks, respectively.
Now, he gets an easier matchup, pass-rush-wise, against the Colts.
In 2024, Ridley faced the Cincinnati Bengals, for whom Anarumo was the defensive coordinator.
In that game, with Mason Rudolph as his quarterback, who completed 21 of 26 passes for just 209 yards, Ridley had 41 yards and averaged 13.7 yards per catch.
Against the Colts, who are a far more generous team when it comes to doling out pressure against quarterbacks, Ward will have more time to throw and get on schedule.
Ridley, though it’s not by much, has been his top target this season and, despite being north of 30 years old, still can get yards after the catch.
Ridley will hit 50 receiving yards in this game.
