Week 17 of the NFL season is here, and to kick things off on Thursday, which is also Christmas Day, we have three games: the Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys, the Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions, and the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos.
Below, I’ll provide a prop bet for each Christmas Day game.
Christmas Day Prediction: Javonte Williams Under 75.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
While Williams has run for 76 yards or more in nine of 15 games this season, there are a few angles to consider here.
First, Williams is a free agent after this season.
Now, this could mean that the Cowboys could squeeze every last snap out of him, but I tend to believe they’ll want to see more of what they have in a player like Malik Davis, who’s also a free agent, albeit a restricted one after this season or perhaps keep Williams healthy and sign him to an extension to lead this backfield next season.
After all, the Cowboys’ season is over after Week 18, so why push it?
Another consideration is contract incentives.
Williams had contract incentives for 1,250 total yards and 12 touchdowns.
He’s hit both of those, earning himself an extra $500,000.
So, when you consider that, along with the fact that he suffered a neck injury and came out of the Cowboys’ Week 16 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, I question what kind of usage he’ll have.
The matchup, though, is great.
The Commanders allow 24.3 carries, 113.5 rushing yards (4.7 yards per carry), and 0.93 touchdowns per game.
When we get this late in the season, there are other real-life implications to keep in mind beyond just what the stats show.
If Williams plays — he’s been limited in practice this week — I believe we could see closer to a 50/50 split between him and Davis, along with Hunter Luepke factored in.
As a result of those fewer snaps and carries, Williams will finish with 75 yards or fewer.
Christmas Day Prediction: Max Brosmer Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-225)
The last time we saw Brosmer start was on the road in Week 13 against the Seattle Seahawks.
He had a terrible outing, completing 19 of 30 passes for 126 yards, no touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.
Of course, back at home, he’ll face a Lions defense that’s certainly not as good as the Seahawks, allowing nearly 250 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, but I still think this will be a tough matchup.
The Lions are allowing 1.87 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Still, two of the last three, which include Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh Steelers) and Dak Prescott (Cowboys), have finished with 1 passing touchdown.
Coverage-wise, the Lions primarily play Cover 1 and Cover 3.
While it’s a small sample size, on 29 dropbacks, Brosmer is 15 of 26 (57.7%) against those for 122 yards (4.7 yards per attempt), no touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.
The Lions' defense has certainly been flailing the last few weeks, but they do have 3 interceptions over their last three games.
Additionally, they have 211 pressures (10th) and are facing a Vikings offensive line that’s allowed 51 sacks (3rd) and 204 pressures (tied for 11th).
It’s important to remember that Brosmer was an undrafted free agent.
These are meaningful reps for his development, no doubt, but right now, we’ll take advantage of a player prop point of view and take the under on 1.5 passing touchdowns.
Christmas Day Prediction: Kareem Hunt Over 5.5 Rush Attempts (-155)
To round things out, I’m looking toward one of the Chiefs running backs.
Hunt has a couple of notable contract incentives:
- Playing Time: 50% offensive snaps, currently at 47.7%.
- Scrimmage Yards: Needs 750 for his next break-point, has 681.
So, while the opponent doesn’t bode well for massive production, he’s 69 scrimmage yards away from his next incentive and is closing in on his playing time goal.
With third-string, second-year quarterback Chris Oladokun, who played at South Florida, Samford, and South Dakota State in college, starting, the Chiefs will certainly try to utilize the running game as much as possible.
To this point, Hunt has handled 50.5% of the Chiefs’ running back carries, which leads the team.
That said, Isiah Pacheco has missed some time.
Over the last three games, it’s been more of a 54/40/6 split led by Pacheco and followed by Hunt and rookie running back Brashard Smith, respectively.
The Chiefs are massive underdogs in this game, so Oladokun may need to start letting it fly eventually, but from the start, expect the Chiefs to run plenty.
Hunt has had 6 carries or more in 12 of 15 games.
I get the hesitation with the poor quarterback play and with him on the wrong side of a timeshare, but some incentives are coming up, which teams certainly make an effort to help their player achieve, and Hunt’s time in the NFL could be coming close to the end as he’ll be turning 31 years old this coming August.
Hunt needs 69 scrimmage yards.
If he can carve out even 20 yards across six carries or more, that’ll put him in a strong spot to cap it off in Week 18 against a lousy Las Vegas Raiders team.
With these carries, that should help him arrive at the 50% offensive snap threshold, too.
