There are eight teams left in the NFL playoffs, with a lot of great matchups this weekend.
Let's look at my three best props for this slate, including two from the Bears-Rams game and another from the Broncos against the Bills.
Divisional Round Prediction: Matthew Stafford Over 266.5 Passing Yards (-113)
The Los Angeles Rams are on the road against the Chicago Bears, and the game has a total of 49.
I believe that is too low.
I don’t think either defense will be able to stop the opposing offense, which will lead to a shootout.
The Bears have allowed 303 passing yards or more in each of their last three games, including 323 to Jordan Love in the Wild Card Round last week.
As for Stafford, he’s thrown for 267 or more in six of his last eight games.
The three coverages the Bears most often play are Cover 1, Cover 2, and Cover 3.
Of those, Stafford has faced Cover-3 the most, seeing it on 220 of his dropbacks.
He’s 146 of 209 (69.9%) for 1,799 yards, 8.6 yards per attempt, with 11 touchdown passes.
Those 1,799 yards against Cover 3 are the most in the league.
Not only that, but Stafford’s No. 1 target, Puka Nacua, leads the NFL in targets (71), receptions (56), and yards (735) against Cover 3.
Furthermore, against Cover 1, Nacua ranks fourth in the NFL in yards (318) and averages 21.1 yards per reception.
Something else to consider is that the Bears are dealing with injuries on defense.
Linebacker T.J. Edwards fractured his fibula and is out for the season, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson is questionable, and Kyler Gordon is dinged up and allowed a few chunk plays in the Wild Card Round win.
Finally, we have to examine Stafford when he has a clean pocket.
The Bears are 30th in the NFL in pressures (187), so I expect many clean looks for Stafford.
When he’s kept clean in the pocket, Stafford has completed 71.7% of his passes for 3,855 yards (8.5 yards per attempt) and 41 touchdowns.
Interestingly, his average depth of target is higher under pressure (10.8) than in a clean pocket (9.3), so if the Bears do get some pressure, Stafford may look to chuck it up to Nacua or another receiver downfield.
Divisional Round Prediction: Luther Burden III Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
In the Wild Card Round win over the Packers, in what was a 31-27 shootout, Burden had 3 catches on 7 targets for 42 yards.
When fellow wide receiver Rome Odunze was on the field, they had a fairly similar target share percentage, with Odunze at 18.8% and Burden at 15.6%.
Unfortunately, though, Burden caught just 1 of those targets.
What I liked was that Williams was targeting Burden at all levels of the field, which makes reaching this line of 38 that much easier.
Additionally, the Bears will be facing a lot of Cover 3, and Burden has been excellent against it.
He leads the team in yards (339) and is tied for the team lead in yards per reception (16.1) versus Cover 3.
Here are the stat lines for Burden III and Odunze:
- Burden: 25 targets, 21 catches, 339 yards, 1 touchdown.
- Odunze: 29 targets, 13 receptions, 209 yards, 2 touchdowns.
So, Odunze gets more deep shots, but Burden has been steady and has a higher yards after the catch per reception.
As mentioned above, I believe this game will be a shootout and go beyond the over-under of 49, and Burden will be the Bears’ answer against Cover 3.
Divisional Round Prediction: RJ Harvey Under 14.5 Rush Attempts (-130)
When fellow Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins hasn’t been on the field this season, Harvey has received the lion’s share of the Broncos’ running back carries, handling 73.1% of them.
He leads Jaleel McLaughlin, who’s at 25%.
Since Week 11, Harvey has had double-digit carries in all but one game, and he’s had 15 carries or more in three of those.
This may seem counterintuitive, seeing as how bad the Bills’ run defense is, allowing 108.4 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (6th), but Harvey just hasn’t been efficient when he’s gotten the ball.
He’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and has run 29 times for 71 over his last two games.
McLaughlin doesn’t get many carries, but he’s averaging 5.1 yards per carry.
Over his last three games, he’s run 18 times and has 118 yards.
The Broncos could also find themselves trailing in this game, and if that happens, Harvey tends to disappear in those situations.
This season, when the Broncos are trailing, Harvey has just 36 carries.
He has 146 on the season.
He still leads the Broncos’ running back carry share at 69.2%, but the Broncos tend to just turn away from the run game altogether.
So, there are a few angles.
Yes, the Bills’ run defense is terrible, but I’m not sure Harvey can take advantage, and that might open the door for McLaughlin more.
If the Broncos trail, they tend to ditch the running game.
Harvey will finish close to this number, but I don’t see him surpassing it unless, somehow, the Broncos, who won 11 games by one score, rack up a multi-score lead against a Josh Allen-led Bills offense.
