Week 10 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the Denver Broncos host the Las Vegas Raiders.
Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 10, including Indianapolis Colts tight end Tyler Warren, Colts quarterback Daniel Jones, and Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold.
Week 10 Prediction: Tyler Warren Under 4.5 Receptions (-132)
Heading into Week 10, Warren is averaging 4.6 catches per game, but has finished with 4 or fewer catches in five games and just went over this line with five in two games.
The team traded away wide receiver Adonai Mitchell, and without him on the field, Warren’s numbers in the offense are slightly different.
He’s fourth on the team in team target share at 20.3%, trailing Michael Pittman (22.9%), Alec Pierce (22.6%), and Josh Downs (20.5%).
Additionally, over the last three weeks, with Mitchell off the field, his target share has dropped to 16.7%, resulting in just 12 catches during that span.
Pierce and Pittman have been seeing the bulk of the targets lately, with both players at or above a 27.1% target share.
Not only that, but he’s taking on a Falcons defense that allows a league-low 3.62 targets, 2.12 catches, and 0.12 touchdowns per game to tight ends.
In fact, no tight end has caught five passes against them in any game this season.
The closest was Hunter Henry of the New England Patriots last week with 4.
Warren isn’t like any other tight end, ranking second in receiving yards at the position, but the Falcons defense has been strong against tight ends, and his target share has been down a bit lately.
Perhaps this being an international game in Germany could change up some things, but there’s not a lot of data pointing toward taking the over, despite the excellent odds if you were to do so of +120.
Week 10 Prediction: Sam Darnold Under 1.5 Passing TDs (+150)
For my next prop, I’m taking a swing on Darnold to finish with 1 passing touchdown or fewer.
The odds are enticing at +150, and there’s some evidence to suggest it’s possible.
The Cardinals have allowed 1 passing touchdown or fewer in six of nine games this season, including Week 4, which was a home game for them against Darnold and the Seahawks.
In that game, Darnold threw for 242 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions.
In fact, the Cardinals allow just 1.12 passing touchdowns per game, which is the seventh-fewest in the NFL.
Darnold attempted 26 passes in that game, which was the fifth-most he’s attempted among the eight games he’s played.
Including the Cardinals game, Darnold has finished with 1 passing touchdown or fewer in three of eight games.
Of those three, two were home games.
The Cardinals also surrender just 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game to running backs (tied for fifth-fewest), 0.50 to wide receivers (tied for third-fewest), and 0.38 to tight ends (tied for fifth-fewest).
The touchdowns allowed per game to receivers could play a role, considering his No. 1 target is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads the NFL in receiving yards.
Defensively, the Cardinals play Cover 3 more than anything else.
Against it, Darnold has thrown just 4 touchdowns all season and is completing 64.5% of his passes.
In that Week 4 game, he was 5 of 8 passing for 57 yards and 0 touchdown passes against the Cardinals’ Cover 3.
The Seahawks recently traded for wide receiver Rashid Shaheed, and while he’ll be an excellent field stretcher, he has just 2 touchdowns this season.
One of them came on an 87-yard touchdown pass.
However, the Cardinals haven’t allowed a single touchdown this season in which the pass had more than 15 air yards.
The Cardinals turning to quarterback Jacoby Brissett could mean they’ll have a more competent offense, which could mean the Seahawks will need to throw more, but given the odds, there’s enough here to convince me to throw at least a half-unit wager on the under.
Week 10 Prediction: Daniel Jones Under 244.5 Passing Yards (-115)
For the final prop, I’m leaning under on Jones’ passing yards at 244.5.
Heading into this game, Jones has only finished under this line in three of nine games.
However, he’s taking on a Falcons defense that’s allowing just 174.75 passing yards per game, which is the fewest in the NFL.
Only one quarterback, Drake Maye of the New England Patriots, has thrown for 245 yards or more, and that happened only last week.
Outside of Maye, only six quarterbacks have even surpassed 200 yards.
The Falcons’ primary pass coverage is Cover 3, and they also blitz at the fourth-highest rate (opposing quarterbacks have faced their blitz on 107 dropbacks).
When the Falcons play Cover 3 and send the blitz (five or more rushers), opposing quarterbacks are averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt and completing under 60% of their passes.
As for Jones in those circumstances, he’s 17 of 32 (53.1%) for 264 yards, 8.3 yards per attempt, no touchdowns, and 1 interception.
Digging a bit deeper, the two routes that Jones has targeted most often are hitches and out routes.
The Falcons defense is holding quarterbacks to a yards per attempt average of 6.2 on hitches and 5.7 on out routes.
Additionally, the Falcons defense is far worse against the run, allowing 124.4 rushing yards per game (10th-fewest), and the Colts have the best running back in the NFL in Jonathan Taylor.
Given how consistent the Falcons have been overall this season against the pass and their run defense deficiency against a running back of Taylor’s caliber, Jones may not need to throw as much.
