In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.

This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.

Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.

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Consider the over on Nick Chubb’s longest rush prop

Even in a tough matchup against the Buffalo Bills, take the over on Nick Chubb’s longest rush.

Nick Chubb’s longest rush prop, current line:

  • Take the over at 19.5 or lower

Despite the Miami Dolphins dominating the Browns last week, Chubb managed to break off a 33-yard run. Chubb has a run of 20 or more yards in 12 of his last 13 games dating back to last season. 

I’ve been writing about this prop all season, so I’ll keep it simple this week: take the over.

Consider the under on Melvin Gordon’s longest rush

The under has consistently been a winner on Melvin Gordon’s longest rush, and the Las Vegas Raiders may pose a particularly difficult challenge this week. 

Melvin Gordon’s longest rush, current line:

  • Take the under at 10.5 or lower

This line was available at 11.5 last week 一 a number Gordon has surpassed on just two of his 82 carries. 

Despite the Raiders’ many struggles this season, their run defense has been a bright spot. 

Take a look at some of these numbers, via TruMedia:

  • Rate of contacting ball carrier at or behind line of scrimmage: 48% (ranked ninth)
  • Rate of allowing 10 or more yards: 11% (ranked sixth)

As he’s gotten older, Gordon has lost his elusive ability and regularly draws early contact in the run game. Excluding short-yardage situations, he’s averaging just 1.0 yards before contact per attempt, ranked 37th out of 41 qualified running backs. 

As long as this prop is available in the double digits, the under should continue to be a winner at a high rate. 

Consider the over on Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop

We bet on this prop the last time the New York Jets and New England Patriots met, so let’s go back for more 一 take the over on Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards. 

Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop, current line:

  • Take the over at 65.5 or higher

This recommendation is based on the trend we’ve been following with the Patriots’ defense and their use of single-high coverages. 

Since we started chasing this trend in Week 5, we’re 4-1 in our effort to identify the player most likely to benefit or suffer from New England’s coverage scheme. 

Outside the red zone, New England uses two-high safety coverages on a league-low 22% of opponent dropbacks, per TruMedia/PFF. This creates more opportunities on the outside (as opposed to the middle of the field) against New England relative to the rest of the league. 

Here’s a look at how the Jets’ target share outside the red zone breaks down based on coverage schemes, via TruMedia/PFF:

Garrett Wilson25%16%
Tyler Conklin18%17%
Corey Davis12%9%
Elijah Moore10%12%

In the last meeting, Wilson had a season-high 115 yards on six receptions, which probably means this prop will be available at a much higher number than the 38.5 we got last time. Given Wilson’s usage, however, we should still feel good even if it climbs into the 60s.

Consider the under on Davante Adams’s longest reception

Patrick Surtain II is a tough matchup for Davante Adams, so it looks like a good opportunity to take the under on his longest reception. 

Davante Adams’s longest reception, current line:

  • Take the under at 23.5 or higher

According to NextGenStats, Surtain shadowed Adams on 71% of his routes when these teams met in Week 4, and allowed an average of 1.3 yards of separation on Adams’s eight targets. 

Additionally, opposing quarterbacks are 4-for-18 when targeting Surtain in coverage at least 10 yards downfield, per Sports Info Solutions. 

The entire offense has been funneled through Adams the past two weeks, as he’s seen 31 targets. So there’s some risk based on the volume of opportunities he may see in this matchup.

However, Surtain blanketed Adams in their last meeting and Adams’s long reception reached just 20 yards. 

As a team, Denver is allowing 20 or more yards on just 5.3% of pass plays, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. 

Consider the under on Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop

In a tough matchup against the Tennessee Titans, take the under on Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop on Thursday night. 

Aaron Jones rushing yards prop, current line:

The under is 7-2 for starting running backs against the Titans this season, and there’s some strong data to suggest that trend is no fluke. 

The Titans have contacted opposing running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on a league-high 55% of their carries, per TruMedia. 

Green Bay has been quick to abandon the run at times 一 Jones has four games with single-digit carries 一 so this could potentially turn into a pass-heavy game for the Packers. 

The early weather forecast indicates it will be freezing temperatures (but no snow), which may lead some to expect a run-heavy game plan. However, the Packers have played 10 regular season games in freezing temperatures since 2017 and ran the ball over 50% of the time in only one of those matchups, per TruMedia. 

So despite the weather, expect a standard game plan for Green Bay, which could mean a reduced workload for Jones against a strong Titans run defense.

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