Week 12 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills.
Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 12, including a player from that game.
Week 12 Prediction: Dawson Knox Under 2.5 Receptions (-112)
The Bills will be without tight end Dalton Kincaid once again due to his hamstring injury.
They’ll also be without wide receivers Curtis Samuel (elbow/neck), Mecole Hardman (calf), and, reportedly, Keon Coleman (disciplinary).
I’m still taking the under on Knox’s receptions at 2.5.
Sure, those players are out, but Knox caught just one pass on three targets for 23 yards in Week 11, boasting a pedestrian 10% team target share.
Over the course of this season, his target share is at just 7.2%.
Additionally, looking over the game logs, the Texans have held the leading tight end on opposing teams to 2 or fewer catches on five of 11 occasions.
Going further, without Kincaid on the field over the last three seasons, Knox has a target share of just 12.7%.
In that same span, he also has just 17 catches against Cover 3, the coverage the Texans most often play.
Those 17 catches came on nearly 230 routes.
The point is that the Bills don’t use him in the passing game whatsoever.
Whether Kincaid is on the field or not, Knox is not getting enough looks to make him a reliable enough option to take the over.
Week 12 Prediction: Brian Thomas Jr. Under 4.5 Receptions (+115)
For the second player prop, I’m swinging at a plus-odds option and taking the under on Thomas' receptions.
Thomas hasn’t played over the last two weeks with an ankle injury, and he’s been limited this week in practice, so perhaps the ankle will still be a bit of an issue.
It seems like it’s lining up for tight end Brenton Strange to also get back into the lineup after being out since getting injured in Week 5.
So Thomas will re-enter a receiving corps that includes Strange, Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, and, of course, their running backs.
As for this line, Thomas has finished with 4 receptions or fewer in six of 10 games this season.
His opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, has allowed 11 of a possible 36 receivers to catch 5 passes or more in a game.
I’d feel even better about this if Cardinals cornerback Will Johnson were playing, but he has yet to practice this week, so it’s not looking too likely.
As for target share, Thomas hasn’t exactly dominated the team like you’d think he would this season.
Without Travis Hunter on the field, his target share is the best on the team, but it is still at 22.3%.
Just behind him are Washington and Meyers, who are at 20.9% and 20%, respectively.
It’s also worth noting that Thomas' quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, has not exactly performed well this season against Cover 3 and Cover 4, which are the two defenses the Cardinals play more often than anything else.
Against those, Lawrence is completing less than 60% of his passes.
As a receiver, Thomas has caught 19 of 39 passes.
This is +115 for a reason, but if Strange is back in the lineup along with Thomas, who is fresh off an injury and somewhat wishy-washy in terms of what to expect weekly, I’m rolling the dice.
Week 12 Prediction: Jared Goff Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-210)
For my final NFL player prop for this week's slate, I’ll take one that I’d consider a layup with Goff at more than 1.5 passing touchdowns.
While he fell short of this mark last week, that was against a pretty tough Philadelphia Eagles defense on the road.
Over the course of this season, he’s thrown 2 touchdowns or more in six of 10 games.
Of those six games, half were at home.
Now, at home, he’ll take on a New York Giants defense that’s allowing 1.73 passing touchdowns per game.
They’ve allowed 2 or more in four of their last five games.
The only player to fall short was Bears quarterback Caleb Williams.
Looking at their coverage, the Giants primarily deploy Cover 1 and Cover 3, and Goff has manhandled those looks all season.
When facing them, he’s completing 66.5% of his passes for 1,358 yards, 8.4 yards per attempt, 14 touchdowns, and just 1 interception.
For context, he’s completed 69.7% of his passes for 2,490 yards, 8 yards per attempt, 21 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions overall this season.
What about in games in which he’s favored?
He’s completing 69% of his passes for 857 yards, 10.2 yards per attempt, and 9 touchdowns.
Not only that, but I do expect Jaxson Dart under center for the Giants this week, and his rushing ability could help the Giants hang around longer than you’d expect.
This would help put Goff in a positive game script to continue passing the ball.
Goff’s top target, Amon-Ra St. Brown, has also done extremely well against man coverage this season, catching 22 passes for 237 yards and 6 touchdowns — he has 8 total on the year.
The odds don’t provide top-tier value or anything at -210, but this feels like an excellent addition to a parlay.
Goff should have a great bounce-back game here.
