In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week.
Player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted.
Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Consider the over on Jahmyr Gibbs’ receptions prop
The Lions’ rookie running back let a lot of bettors down last week, making this a good opportunity to jump in and take the over on Jahmyr Gibbs’ receptions prop.
Jahmyr Gibbs’ receptions prop, current line:
With just two catches for 18 yards, Jahmyr Gibbs went under his receptions and receiving yards props in the season opener.
This was partially due to reduced playing time as the Lions’ coaching staff eased him into the league. Even if that reduced role continues, the differences in defensive scheme between the Chiefs and Seahawks should create opportunities for Gibbs in Week 2.
According to TruMedia, the Chiefs used zone coverage on just 61% of snaps outside the red zone. Seattle used zone at a 92% rate in its Week 1 matchup against the Rams.
The Seahawks’ rate of zone coverage was consistent with their 86% rate in 2022, the second-highest rate in the league.
These numbers are critical to Gibbs’ performance due to the differences in how Jared Goff distributes the ball against different schemes.
Take a look at D’Andre Swift’s target share breakdown outside the red zone from the second half of last season (after the T.J. Hockenson trade), via TruMedia:
- Versus zone: 18.3%, second on team
- Versus man: 11.4%, fourth on team
Gibbs is essentially stepping into Swift’s role in the offense, so we should expect a similar breakdown 一 and sure enough, both of his Week 1 targets came against zone coverage.
Consider the under on Deon Jackson’s longest rush prop
If we’re betting on the Indianapolis Colts’ offense, we’re probably taking unders 一 so take the under on Deon Jackson’s longest rush.
Deon Jackson longest rush, current line:
The Colts offensive line does not appear to be capable of consistently clearing running lanes for its ball carriers, so big plays will be tough to come by this year.
In 2022, Colts running backs ranked 21st in their rate of gaining three or more yards before contact, per TruMedia.
Last week against the Jaguars, Jackson was not provided three untouched yards on any of his 13 carries.
In fact, Jackson was contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 10 of his 13 attempts against Jacksonville.
Although the Texans run defense is not as strong as Jacksonville’s, Houston did fare relatively well against Baltimore last week, per TruMedia:
- 17% rate of allowing three or more yards before contact
- 50% contact rate at or behind the line of scrimmage
Due to Houston’s poor reputation, we may get a favorable line this week for taking the under on Jackson’s longest rush.
Consider the under on Geno Smith’s longest completion prop
Due to injuries along the offensive line, take the under on Geno Smith’s longest completion prop.
Geno Smith longest completion prop, current line:
The Seahawks struggled to protect Geno Smith against a weak Rams’ pass rush in Week 1, and those issues could continue against the Lions.
Smith was pressured on 44.8% of his dropbacks, higher than in any game last season, and was pressured in under 2.5 seconds on 24% of his dropbacks, per TruMedia.
Injuries to starting tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas played a role in those struggles. Lucas has already been placed on injured reserve, and Cross did not practice on Wednesday.
Dating back to the start of last season, Smith has 33 passes of 25 yards or more, with 25 of those (76%) coming on plays in which he held the ball for at least 2.5 seconds, per TruMedia.
As the offensive line struggled, Seattle appeared to adjust to a quicker passing attack, with Smith getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds on 58% of his attempts 一 far above his rates of 43% and 39% in matchups against the Rams in 2022.
Consider the over on Nick Chubb’s longest rush prop
We consistently played and won with this prop last year, so let’s go back to again 一 take the over on Nick Chubb’s longest rush against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.
Nick Chubb longest rush, current line:
The over on Nick Chubb’s longest rush was a winner in 14 of 17 games last year including both contests against Pittsburgh, and he reached at least 20 yards in 11 of those games.
The Browns offensive line plays a role in this, as the unit consistently clears running lanes. Chubb gained three or more yards before contact on 26% of his carries last year and 28% of his carries last week against Cincinnati.
That’s a key stat for this prop, as 79% of the time running backs gained 15 or more yards last year, it started with at least three yards before contact, per TruMedia.
Consider the over on Najee Harris’ receptions prop
The Steelers have a tough matchup against Myles Garrett and the Browns defense, so expect an increase in their quick passing concepts 一 take the over on Najee Harris’ receptions.
Najee Harris receptions prop, current line:
Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada is notorious for his slow-developing plays, but he’ll likely be forced to adjust against the Browns.
Cleveland pressured Joe Burrow on 36.4% of his dropbacks last week 一 and that was despite Burrow getting rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less on 74% of his throws, the highest rate in the league per TruMedia.
Kenny Pickett got rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less on just 35% of his attempts, the second lowest rate of Week 1.
The obvious adjustment for Canada is to create more quick-developing options for Pickett, and Harris is capable of playing a significant role in that game plan.