Week 6 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the New York Giants host the Philadelphia Eagles.
Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 6, starting with a player in that Thursday night game.
Week 6 Prediction: Cam Skattebo Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
The Giants are hosting the Eagles on a short week, and in that game, I’m taking the under on Skattebo’s rushing yards at a line of 49.5 in a game where the Giants are 7-point underdogs.
So far this season, Skattebo is averaging 48 rushing yards per game and averaging just 3.8 yards per carry.
Heading into this game, Skattebo will also have more competition for carries as Tyrone Tracy Jr. is back in the lineup.
Skattebo and Tracy were in a near 50-50 timeshare before Tracy's injury.
Skattebo got 43.4% of the carries, and Tracy got 41.5% of them.
In those games, Skattebo averaged 7.6 carries per game, which included 10 in Week 3 when Tracy got injured.
In the two weeks following his injury, Skattebo posted the following stat totals:
- Week 4: 25 carries for 79 yards (3.2 yards per carry).
- Week 5: 15 carries for 59 yards (3.9 yards per carry).
Across those two games, he averaged 20 carries for 69 yards (2.9 yards per carry).
Yeah, not exactly efficient.
However, he did get 75.5% of the running back carries compared to Devin Singletary, who got just 24.5%.
Going further into his production during Tracy's absence, only 2.5% of his carries went for 10 yards or more.
This is important because the likelihood of him busting a longer run to help into this line is minimal.
Additionally, 22 of his 40 carries went between a three-yard loss and a three-yard gain.
More than 50% of his carries were for minimal gains.
Something else that’s important is how much work he got when the team was trailing.
Considering the Giants are 7-point underdogs, that could be early and often.
In Weeks 4 and 5, Skattebo got just 8 carries when the Giants were trailing by a point or more.
Furthermore, when down by seven points or more, he had just 2 carries.
So, not only is Skattebo highly inefficient, but the running back he was in a near 50-50 timeshare with is back, and when the team is losing, he’s not getting a bunch of action.
I’ll take the under.
Week 6 Prediction: Garrett Wilson Over 5.5 Receptions (+113)
In Week 6, the New York Jets and Denver Broncos will square off in London.
In that game, I’m taking Wilson to have six catches or more.
Of course, any time you can get “+” odds, that’s going to make a wager more appealing, but this is one to feel confident in.
The Jets will be without wide receiver Allen Lazard.
Without him on the field, Wilson has a 36% target share.
Additionally, without Lazard, Wilson runs a route on 99.2% of his quarterback's dropbacks.
With such a massive target share, Wilson has caught 6 passes or more in four of five games.
That includes each of his last three, and quarterback Justin Fields was throwing him passes in two of those.
The Broncos defense primarily plays Cover 1 and Cover 3.
These make up about 55.8% of the coverage opposing quarterbacks see against them.
Against Cover 1 and Cover 3 this season, Wilson has caught 13 passes, which is close to 40% of his receptions this season (33).
Going further, Wilson runs hitches (41) and out routes (32) more than anything else.
This is important because against those two routes, the Broncos have allowed 35 completions on 43 attempts (81.4%).
That said, any time you examine a game against the Broncos, especially involving a team’s No. 1 wide receiver, you have to account for Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II.
Looking back at the Jets and Broncos game last season, there were some obvious differences: the Jets had Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, for one, but that was also a terrible game weather-wise.
The Broncos won 10-9.
In that game, Wilson had 5 catches with 3 coming against Surtain.
Surtain himself has never allowed 6 catches to any single receiver in his entire career.
However, as we saw last season, Surtain is, of course, most often assigned to the No. 1 target, but Wilson will get matchups against other Broncos defenders.
Additionally, the Jets are 7.5-point underdogs, which is the perfect game script for throwing the ball frequently.
No, Fields isn’t exactly the greatest passer in the world, but get this: Fields’ best game as a passer came in Week 4 of the 2023 season against the Broncos.
He completed 28 of 35 passes for 335 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
This will be a difficult matchup for Wilson, given the target share volume and the Jets being sizable underdogs.
I think Wilson will get ample targets and reach the 6-reception mark.
