Week 7 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the Cincinnati Bengals host the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 7, starting with a player in that Thursday night game.
Week 7 Prediction: Noah Fant 25+ Receiving Yards (-130)
Week 6 marked the first game with Joe Flacco under center for the Bengals, and in that game, Fant caught 4 passes on 4 targets for 27 yards.
He had just a 10% team target share, trailing fellow tight end Tanner Hudson (12.5%), but his other metrics were far more promising than what Hudson showed.
Fant ran a route on 50% of Flacco’s dropbacks compared to Hudson’s 26.4%.
Additionally, Fant posted a 1.23 yards per route run average to Hudson’s 0.63.
Finally, Fant’s targets averaged 2.75 air yards, while Hudson’s were just 1.20.
So, while Fant got 1 fewer target, the type of targets he was getting points more toward receiving yardage production upside versus Hudson’s.
Fant also ran 22 routes in Week 6, a noticeable increase from just 30 over the previous three games.
More importantly, the Bengals will be without Hudson this week as he suffered a concussion against the Packers.
They’re also set to be without another tight end, Mike Gesicki, who was placed on injured reserve with a pectoral injury.
It’s also worth mentioning that Fant and Flacco have a bit of a history.
Flacco started eight games before landing on injured reserve for the Denver Broncos during the 2019-20 season, which was Fant’s rookie season.
In those first eight weeks, he had five games with 25 yards or more.
Sure, that’s a stretch, but that history is there.
As for their opponent, the Steelers allow the second-most receiving yards to tight ends per game at 71.8.
They’ve allowed seven tight ends to hit the 25-yard threshold, including multiple tight ends in three games.
The only tight ends that fell short were the New York Jets in Week 1, but that was in their first game with a new head coach, new quarterback, and new tight end room (Mason Taylor caught one pass for 20 yards).
Without Hudson and Gesicki on the field and with a quarterback he has rapport with against a defense that struggles versus tight ends, I’ll take a chance on Fant to finish with 25 yards or more.
Week 7 Prediction: Bryce Young Under 198.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Young is coming off one of the better games of his career against the Dallas Cowboys, completing 68% of his passes for 199 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
I’m taking the under in Week 7 at 198.5 on the road against the New York Jets.
So far this season, Young has finished with 198 yards or less in all but two games.
The two games include the 199 against the Cowboys and 328 on the road against the Arizona Cardinals.
However, for context, in that game against the Cardinals, Young and the Carolina Panthers were down by multiple scores, so almost all of that production came in garbage time.
On the road this season, Young is 71 of 120 (59.17%) for 632 yards, 5 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and averages 5.77 yards per attempt.
Keep in mind that, of those 632 yards, 328 came against the Cardinals.
He had 154 yards or fewer in each of the other two road games.
Not only that, but over his career, Young has been abysmal on the road, going just 1-17 and finishing with 199 yards or more in just seven of 18 games.
Also, the Jets are allowing just 207.5 passing yards per game.
Three quarterbacks have finished with 198 yards or less, including Josh Allen, Bo Nix, and Tua Tagovailoa.
Additionally, the Panthers' running game has really emerged, with Rico Dowdle and fellow running back Chuba Hubbard, who should be back in the lineup this week.
Between the Jets defense, Young’s ineptitude on the road, and having another running back return, I expect Young to finish well under 198 yards.
Week 7 Prediction: Quinshon Judkins Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Heading into this week, Judkins has run 84 times for 383 yards (4.6 yards per carry) and 2 rushing touchdowns.
This comes after he missed Week 1 and was worked into the backfield in Week 2, where he carried the ball just 10 times but gained 61 yards.
From Week 3 on, Judkins has garnered 84.1% of the Browns’ running back carries with 74 of them for 322 yards and 4.4 yards per carry.
Now, he’s taking on a Miami Dolphins team that allows 24 rush attempts (fifth-most) for 134.33 yards (first) and 5.60 yards per carry (second) per game to running backs.
Last week, they allowed 124 rushing yards to Los Angeles Chargers running back Kimani Vidal, and the week before that, they allowed 206 to Dowdle.
As for Judkins, he’s only finished with 86 yards or more twice (did have one game with 82 yards), but keep in mind, this is despite the Browns calling run plays just 34.64% of the time, which is the second-lowest rate in the NFL.
Not only that, but also keep in mind that he finished with 86 yards or more in games where the final score was within one score.
Every other game, the Browns lost by at least 14.
Why is that? Well, they’re always losing and unable to turn to the run like they should.
Now they’re taking on a Dolphins team as a home favorite.
This hasn’t happened yet to the Browns this season.
Given Judkins’ production when the Browns are underdogs, trailing often, and despite a low run play call percentage and how bad the Dolphins defense has been against running backs, I expect Judkins to get plenty of attempts to run wild on them.
I’d even go as far as to say that he’ll have 100 yards or more.
