The Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs is here.
It begins with the Carolina Panthers vs. the Los Angeles Rams and ends with the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the Houston Texans on Monday night.
Below, I’ll provide my four best props for this weekend’s action.
Wild Card Round Prediction: Aaron Rodgers Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-112)
The narrative heading into this game is that the Texans badly outmatch the Steelers and are going to walk all over them.
While I can concede they may win the game, I don’t believe it’ll be as big a blowout as “the public” thinks it will be, and a big part of that will be Rodgers’ passing ability.
This season, Rodgers finished with 21 completions or more in 10 of 16 games, including each of his last five.
Rodgers is averaging just 6.7 yards per attempt, and the magic formula for him racking up these completions is his extremely fast time to throw.
Of all 36 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks this season, Rodgers has the second-fastest time to throw at 2.56 seconds, trailing only Miami Dolphins signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa at 2.55 seconds.
In addition to that, 22.9% of his attempts are behind the line of scrimmage, and 45% are between zero and nine yards downfield.
Does this mean there are explosive plays?
No, but for this prop, that massively benefits us.
Going further, the Texans primarily play Cover 3, and against that, Rodgers has a 67.7% completion percentage, completing 90 of 133 passes on 142 dropbacks.
Also, against quarterbacks that get the ball out in 2.56 seconds or faster, the Texans are allowing a 69.2% completion percentage for 1,777 yards, 6.2 yards per attempt, 12 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.
This game is setting up well for something more competitive than you might expect, and a big part of that will be completions from Rodgers’ 42-year-old right arm.
Wild Card Round Prediction: Konata Mumpfield Under 6.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Looking at the entirety of the 2025-2026 season, Mumpfield finished with a 4% target share, catching 10 of 23 passes for 92 yards and a touchdown.
He’s finished with 7 receiving yards or more in four games this season, including in two of his last three.
However, in the two games he went over this line, both Davante Adams and Tyler Higbee were out with injury.
In fact, in situations where Adams and Higbee are on the field, Mumpfield has a 0.7% target share, catching just 1 pass.
Then, if you add Puka Nacua to the mix, who will certainly be on the field, Mumpfield never even gets on the field.
Looking at the two games he went over this line, Mumpfield was far more involved.
He had a 15.5% target share and ran a route on 59.8% of quarterback Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks.
However, in Week 18, when only Higbee returned, he had a mere 2.7% target share, catching 0 passes on 1 target.
He did run a route on 51.2% of dropbacks, but still, he wasn’t looked at whatsoever.
Now, Adams is back on the field, and Mumpfield will likely not really get on the field, barring injury.
As it is, the Panthers allow the eighth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers per game, and Adams and Nacua will monopolize those targets.
I don’t see Mumpfield getting on the field.
Wild Card Round Prediction: Cade Stover Under 1.5 Receptions (-185)
The Texans are on the road against a Steelers defense that does allow the fourth-most receptions per game to opposing tight ends (6.24), but taking the over on Stover’s receptions isn’t the play.
Throughout the entire regular season, Stover boasts just a 2.9% target share, catching 12 of 16 passes for 76 yards.
He did miss a bunch of time, but even since his return in Week 11 to now, his target share is just 5%, catching 8 of 12 passes for 54 yards.
He caught 4 passes in Week 1, but after that, he’s caught 1 pass or fewer in five of nine games.
Stover is behind players like Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, Jayden Higgins, Xavier Hutchinson, and Christian Kirk in target share.
Not only that, but he’s run a route on just 21.1% of his quarterback’s dropbacks, which pales in comparison to Schultz’s 79.9%.
Going further, the Steelers play plenty of Cover 1 and Cover 3, and against those, Stover, since Week 11, has a 3.8% target share, tied with Jaylin Noel and Woody Marks.
He’s not getting targeted much at all, and he doesn’t run many routes.
Take the under.
Wild Card Round Prediction: Josh Whyle Under 1.5 Receptions (-400)
This is a somewhat surprising prop bet to see, not only because of the player but also because of the odds.
No, the odds aren’t great, but this one feels like an easy addition to a parlay or something like that.
Since Week 10, Whyle has a 2.3% target share, catching 4 of 5 passes for 32 yards and a touchdown.
Over the Packers’ last two games — not including Week 18 due to them playing backups — Whyle caught just 1 pass for 8 yards.
Whyle has just 5 catches all season and hasn’t caught multiple passes in a game since Week 18 last year, while he was on the Tennessee Titans.
This is a slam dunk under choice.
