The NFL Christmas Day slate is here!
There are great matchups throughout the day, but let's focus on the Commanders against the Cowboys and the Vikings facing the Lions.
Christmas Day Best Bet Prediction: Washington Commanders Under 21.5 Points (-120)
The Commanders are banged up.
Jayden Daniels has been shut down for the rest of the year, and Marcus Mariota hasn’t practiced this week after getting stitches in his hand.
Josh Johnson relieved Mariota last week against the Eagles, and he’s in line to start if Mariota is ruled out.
The organization also signed Jeff Driskel off the Cardinals practice squad, which could be interpreted as a sign that they don’t anticipate having Mariota available this week.
The injuries don’t stop at the quarterback position, either.
Starting OG Sam Cosmi was placed on the injured reserve. Starting LT Laremy Tunsil was out last week, and he’s started the week with two missed practices.
As a cherry on top, talented punt returner Jaylin Lane was also placed on the IR.
Lane has two punt returns for touchdowns on 23 punt returns in his rookie season, which shouldn’t be entirely overlooked for Washington’s scoring outlook this week.
According to Sumer Sports, among 45 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this year, Mariota is tied for 25th in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.01).
Johnson has -0.48 EPA per play on 11 plays this year, and the 39-year-old quarterback last saw extensive action in 2021, when he attempted 45 passes for the Jets and 40 for the Ravens.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), on 458 career dropbacks dating back to 2009, Johnson has 12 big-time throws (3.0 BTT%), 17 turnover-worthy plays (3.5 TWP%), a 57.9% completion rate, and 6.4 yards per pass attempt.
In Johnson’s nine career starts, his teams have never scored more than 21 points.
The Commanders scored only 18 points against the Eagles last week.
So, even if Mariota can suit up through his hand injury, he’ll be doing so behind a banged-up offensive line after a clunker performance.
Quinnen Williams has been estimated as limited in practice through Tuesday.
If he plays, the Commanders are unlikely to find much success by pivoting to a run-heavy approach.
Williams made his debut with the Cowboys in Week 11.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Cowboys have faced an 8.1% pass rate over expectations (PROE) since Week 11, the second-highest mark in the league.
Furthermore, they’ve allowed only 91.2 rushing yards per game (27th), 4.02 yards per carry (tied for 22nd), and a 46.3% success rate (24th) during that period.
The Commanders are ill-equipped to exploit Dallas’s leaky secondary.
As a result, they’ll likely go under 21.5 points on Christmas.
Christmas Day Best Bet Prediction: Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Under 43.5 Points (-110)
The Lions lost a heartbreaking shootout last week to the Steelers, and the Vikings won a low-scoring slugfest against the lowly Giants in Week 16.
Detroit’s injury-ravaged defense woke up Pittsburgh’s offense, but the penetrable force of their defense will meet the dull knight of a Max Brosmer-led offense.
Among 51 quarterbacks with at least 50 plays this season, Brosmer is dead last in EPA per play (-0.66).
He was a trainwreck against the Seahawks in his only career start.
Among 51 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this season, Brosmer is also PFF’s lowest-graded passer, and he has the highest turnover-worthy play rate (7.5).
Drawing the Seahawks in Seattle for his first start was brutal, but he’s also an undrafted rookie from this year’s NFL Draft class.
Brosmer’s second start comes against a less imposing defense, but it will be behind an offensive line without Christian Darrisaw and Ryan Kelly.
The Vikings will also likely be without Jordan Mason.
Mason injured his ankle early last week, and he hasn’t practiced this week.
Aaron Jones also tweaked his ankle against the Giants, but he was able to play through the issue and logged 21 carries, 85 rushing yards, 3 targets, 2 receptions, and 8 receiving yards.
Jones' ability to handle a hefty workload last week and opening the week with two limited practice participation estimates bode well for his availability this week.
Nevertheless, among 59 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year, Jones is 27th in yards per carry (4.34), 20th in explosive run rate (4.4%), 25th in success rate (51.8%), and 25th in stuff rate (43.0%).
Overloading Jones with a bell-cow workload on an ankle at less than 100% is unlikely to produce impressive production.
Kevin O’Connell’s options are to lean into Brosmer’s arm or lean on a backfield without Mason and with Jones at less than 100%, and either will be done behind an offensive line without Darrisaw and Kelly. Yuck.
The Lions should have some success on Christmas.
According to StatHead, in five starts against the Brian Flores-led Vikings defenses since 2023, Jared Goff has recorded a 76.0% completion rate, 1,372 passing yards, 7.39 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, 8 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a 110.7 quarterback rating.
Goff’s previous success against Flores is an interesting data point for Detroit’s scoring potential.
Yet, as Rich Hribar pointed out in the Week 17 Fantasy Football Worksheet, Goff was pressured on 42.9% of his dropbacks against the Vikings earlier this year.
The Lions have injuries along the offensive line.
Without Graham Glasnow, Christian Mahogany, and Taylor Decker in Week 16 against the Steelers, who were without T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig, Goff was pressured on 38.6% of his dropbacks.
The Lions didn’t practice on Monday or Tuesday, but Glasnow was projected as a full participant on Tuesday.
Mahogany and Decker were listed as limited participants on Tuesday.
Any of their returns would help Detroit’s offense, but it remains to be seen who will be healthy along their offensive line.
One way Dan Campbell could mitigate pressure on Goff is to lean on the running game.
Unfortunately, Detroit’s rushing attack has been boom-or-bust lately.
Since Week 12, the Lions are 20th in rushing yards per game (110.0), second in explosive run rate (7.7%), 27th in success rate (46.2%), and 28th in stuff rate (48.5%).
There are nits to pick on Detroit’s offense against an aggressive defense.
The blemishes are enough to question whether the Lions can light up the scoreboard against Flores’s aggressive defense, and they’d likely need to do the heavy lifting opposite the Brosmer-led Vikings to exceed the game’s total of 43.5 points.
Thus, 43.5 points is probably a bar too high for the Lions and Vikings to clear on Thursday.
