As the NFL season kicks off, everyone loves to dive into the shiny offensive player props. Touchdowns, passing yards, you name it.
But the real hidden gems? They’re often found in defensive props.
Whether it’s sack totals or interception leaders, focusing on defense can unlock some serious under-the-radar value that the public often overlooks.
Let’s dig deeper and find those angles that others might miss.
Player Prop Prediction: Christian Wilkins Over 4.75 Sacks (-110)
Christian Wilkins, who recently joined the Las Vegas Raiders after five seasons with the Miami Dolphins, stands to benefit significantly from playing alongside Maxx Crosby, one of the league’s top defensive players.
Last season, Wilkins recorded 8 sacks, showcasing his ability to generate pressure from the interior of the defensive line.
With Crosby likely to attract more double teams, Wilkins should see increased opportunities to sack the quarterback, making the over on 4.75 sacks an appealing bet.
This under-the-radar prop has a strong case, particularly given Wilkins’ proven track record of durability. He hasn’t missed a game in the past three seasons, and he has totaled 20.5 sacks over five seasons.
The improved team dynamics on the Raiders’ defensive line only enhance the likelihood of Wilkins surpassing the 4.75 sack mark this season.
Player Prop Prediction: Will Anderson Jr. Over 8.25 Sacks (-110)
A promising defensive player prop for the 2024 NFL season is over 8.25 sacks for Will Anderson Jr.
Anderson, a standout defensive end for the Houston Texans, made an immediate impact in his rookie season, recording 7 sacks despite missing two games.
The addition of veteran pass rusher Danielle Hunter is likely to boost Anderson’s sack total. Hunter’s presence should attract more attention from opposing offensive lines, reducing the double teams Anderson faced as a rookie and creating more opportunities for him to reach the quarterback.
In the offseason, Anderson reportedly added 15 pounds while maintaining his speed, enhancing his effectiveness as a pass rusher.
Under head coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans’ defense is expected to improve, providing Anderson with the support he needs to excel.
Betting on Anderson to exceed 8.25 sacks could be a smart play, given his potential and the improved team dynamics.
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Player Prop Prediction: Mike Evans Under 1,050.5 Receiving Yards
This is definitely fading history here.
Evans has consistently surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in each of his ten NFL seasons. However, there are a few reasons to consider the under.
The Bucs are projected to face the 11th easiest schedule overall based on Vegas forecasted win totals.
While this might not seem extremely difficult, the specific matchups they face add complexity.
The Bucs have several challenging away games, including matchups against the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs, teams that are known for their strong home-field advantages and competitive rosters.
The Bucs also face teams with formidable defenses, such as the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens.
Tampa’s receiving corps is expected to play the toughest schedule of passing defenses in terms of yards per pass attempt and explosive passing plays allowed, which could limit offensive production from Evans.
Tampa Bay was also hit with significant changes, particularly with the departure of OC Dave Canales.
New OC Liam Coen brings a wealth of experience from his time with the Los Angeles Rams and the University of Kentucky. Even with experience, this change could impact the dynamics of the offense.
Canales played a key role in developing the offensive scheme that helped quarterback Baker Mayfield thrive during the 2023 season.
Mayfield is coming off career highs in completion percentage (64.3%) and passing yards (4,044 yards). Regression to the mean could be coming with the Bucs facing a tough schedule of defenses with a new offensive coordinator.
Geno Smith, who previously worked with Canales, experienced struggles after his departure, suggesting that the loss of Canales’ guidance can impact quarterback performance.
Mayfield might face similar challenges, particularly in high-pressure situations where familiarity with the offensive scheme is crucial.
A difficult schedule of defenses, a new offensive coordinator, a historical performance of consistency, and Mayfield coming off a stellar season could all lead to an under for Evans.
Player Prop Prediction: Kirk Cousins Under 27.5 Passing Touchdowns
Kirk Cousins is now with the Atlanta Falcons.
That alone, the transition to a new team and adjustments in offensive schemes could impact his overall passing yardage.
Not just a new team, but a team with a new offensive coordinator in Zac Robinson and new head coach Raheem Morris.
Robinson’s history includes a background under Sean McVay, which suggests an emphasis on a balanced offensive approach. Morris is known for his defensive expertise. His focus might be skewed towards strengthening the defense.
Cousins just turned 36 this month. While quarterbacks can perform well into their late 30s, Cousins is also coming back from surgery to repair a torn Achilles tendon in November.
Recovery from such an injury can be challenging, especially for an older athlete.
While he is reportedly on track with his recovery, there’s always a risk of lingering effects or re-injury, potentially affecting his mobility and overall performance.
The Falcons are projected to face the easiest schedule in the NFL for the 2024 season, which includes matchups against some of the weakest rushing defenses.
Scheduling could encourage a run-heavy game plan. This includes matchups against teams like the Carolina Panthers, who finished with one of the worst records last year (2-15).
With Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier leading a strong backfield, the Falcons could lean more heavily on the run game against weaker rushing defenses.
Cousins could have a solid season in the passing game, but a run-heavy strategy in scoring situations, and play-calling dynamics could limit his touchdown totals.
Player Prop Prediction: Jared Goff Most Passing Yards (+950)
One reason Jared Goff could have another solid season of production is he is simply superior indoors, and the Lions play 14 indoor games this season.
Expanding on the idea of Goff’s potential for production, there are further reasons to consider betting on him having the most passing yards.
The Lions have retained much of their roster from the previous season. This continuity helps with familiarity and trust in his quarterback/receiver relationships.
Last year, Goff finished as the seventh-ranked quarterback in fantasy points with 288.9 points and was eighth overall in the NFL.
This year, he’s projected to have 4,230.2 passing yards, 28.1 touchdowns, and 10.8 interceptions, further indicating his potential to be a valuable fantasy asset.
Goff is also projected to face the seventh-easiest schedule for quarterbacks, which could provide more opportunities for strong performances.
I trust Goff. I trust his ability to connect with his receivers. One of those receivers, Amon-Ra St. Brown could be the primary beneficiary of indoor Goff.
Player Prop Prediction: Amon-Ra St. Brown Most Receiving Yards (+1100)
Amon-Ra St. Brown is the epitome of consistent production.
He was a reliable target throughout last season due to his ability to make contested catches and gain yards after the catch.
Finishing with 119 receptions for 1,515 yards, St. Brown ranked in the top five for all major receiving categories, including second in yards after the catch among NFL pass-catchers with 668 yards.
He’s not just a key offensive weapon for the Lions. He is the key offensive weapon.
In the NFC Wild Card Playoffs against the Los Angeles Rams, St. Brown caught seven passes for 110 yards including a crucial 30-yard reception that helped secure a narrow 24-23 victory.
That’s just one example of the significance of his presence.
St. Brown had stellar production, even while playing through injury for most of the season. He tore his oblique muscle off the bone in Week 3 but continued to perform at a high level.
I expect to see an explosive connection between Goff and St. Brown this season.
Both Goff and St. Brown are longer-shot chances. If I like the Lions to contend once again this season, then these are calculated risk options.
Player Prop Prediction: D’Andre Swift Under 750.5 Rushing Yards (-110) & Under 5.5 Rushing TDs (-120)
Stepping away from the Lions, there’s one player I expect to underperform.
D’Andre Swift, a former Lion who played with the Eagles last year, is now with a revamped offense on the Chicago Bears where he is expected to be a key component in the offensive strategy under offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.
Swift can certainly be a weapon, but I expect his most positive outcomes to come as a passing back.
With Caleb Williams at quarterback, the Bears are likely to emphasize a more dynamic passing game. Swift’s ability as a pass-catcher out of the backfield makes him an ideal fit for this offensive shift, but that could also stunt his rushing production.
Historically, Swift has been effective in the passing game, which was an underutilized aspect of his skill set during his time with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Given Waldron’s coaching style, Swift is likely to see a role that capitalizes on his receiving skills.
Game script can also come into play.
While the Bears have one of the easier overall schedules in terms of opponent winning percentages, they are expected to face a tougher slate of opposing offenses.
This could lead to more situations where the Bears are playing from behind, which might reduce how often they run the ball.
The Bears’ schedule includes several teams with potent offenses, such as the San Francisco 49ers and Lions, which could lead to higher-scoring games where the Bears might need to pass more frequently to stay competitive.
There are also durability concerns. Swift has not played a full season in his NFL career, and the likelihood of absences could affect his consistency and availability for the Bears.
Why bet on the under for rushing scores? Swift has had issues with ball security, which is critical in high-stakes situations like goal-line carries.
As mentioned, his skill set is often best utilized in space, where he can leverage his agility and speed.
Because Swift may be used more in passing situations or outside runs, that limits the likelihood of traditional power runs near the goal line.
Besides, Williams also excelled in goal-line situations in college, scoring seven of his 11 rushing touchdowns in 2023 from inside the five-yard line.
This could potentially limit Swift’s opportunities for short-yardage scores.
