2026 NFL Prop Bets: Best QB, RB & WR Over/Unders
- Josh Allen — Over 24.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
- Fernando Mendoza — Under 2299.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- David Montgomery — Over 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-102)
- Jonathan Taylor — Under 1224.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- D.J. Moore — Over 59.5 Receptions (-115)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Under 1324.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The picks above are just a sampling of the FREE player prop picks offered at Sharp Football Analysis.
Click on any of the articles below for the full betting card.
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Quarterback Season Props: 2026 Passing Overs & Unders
- Josh Allen — Over 24.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
- Fernando Mendoza — Under 2299.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Josh Allen 2026 Over/Under Prediction
The Buffalo offense played at the league's slowest pace and ran the ball at the second-highest rate last season, which seems very counterintuitive for a team with Josh Allen at quarterback.
Since the start of 2022, Allen is second in EPA per play and has finished among the top four quarterbacks in EPA per play in every single year.
Despite an effective rushing attack, it would be logical to find a way to lean on the most consistent quarterback over the past four seasons.
Speculation around the Bills is that new head coach Joe Brady will have a similar run-first offense.
However, the run rate may have been dictated by Brady’s boss.
His predecessor, Ken Dorsey, was fired after Allen opened the season with 10 interceptions in the opening 10 games of the 2023 season.
Up until that point, the Bills had passed 3.3% above expectation.
Since Brady took over, the Bills have consistently been below expectations.
In his one full season in Carolina, with Teddy Bridgewater and PJ Walker at quarterback, Brady's offense finished the season with a 2.7% pass rate above expectation.
It is in the range of outcomes that the Bills have a large year-over-year uptick in passing rate under Brady.
D.J. Moore entered the league at 21 years old, posted four 1,000-yard seasons in his first six years, is only 29, and represents a significant upgrade over any of the wide receivers Allen had on the field last year.
An already thin wide receiver room battled injuries last year.
Josh Palmer missed five games with an ankle injury, Khalil Shakir played through a nagging knee injury, and Dalton Kincaid missed five games and had his snaps limited due to an ongoing knee issue.
Improved personnel and receiver health could play a part in the Bills playing more aggressively this season.
According to Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview, the Bills faced the second-easiest schedule of opposing passing offenses last season.
They are projected to face the 16th-ranked schedule of opposing passing offenses this season.
That projection is based on last season’s metrics, so they could potentially face a more difficult schedule given that they get the Chargers, Vikings, Ravens, Raiders and Texans.
All of those teams could improve upon last season's offensive ranking.
In the last two seasons, when Bills opponents scored 30 or more points, Allen averaged 34 passes and 293 passing yards per game.
He averaged 25.8 pass attempts and 194.4 yards per game when opponents scored fewer than 30 points.
There have been nine games over the past two seasons in which the Bills allowed 10 or fewer points.
Allen averaged 22.2 pass attempts in those games.
The Bills' increased difficulty in terms of offensive opponents raises Allen’s passing floor and potentially boosts his passing ceiling as the team could be pushed into more offensive shootouts.
The Sharp Football Analysis projections are aggressive in factoring in increased passing from Allen and are well above the Vegas passing yards total.
ESPN’s publicly available projections have a moderate increase in passing attempts and yardage from last year and are still more than 300 yards over the passing total.
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Fernando Mendoza 2026 Over/Under Prediction
Taking the under on Fernando Mendoza’s season-long total is a bet on how many starts he will make more than how much success he will have in his rookie season.
The Raiders have little incentive to rush Mendoza as the team looks to be playing the long game after finishing dead last in 2025.
This isn’t a roster that can make up for significant talent deficiencies in one season, and the team hired a new head coach with long-term job security, increasing the odds that Mendoza will be slow-played in his opening season.
The Raiders signed veteran Kirk Cousins as a bridge, and Klint Kubiak has been on record since drafting Mendoza that there is no rush to having the rookie start.
This bet is calculating the possible outcomes about when Mendoza is named the starting quarterback.
The Raiders open the season against the Dolphins, who are the current favourites to hold the #1 pick in 2027.
Assuming Cousins wins the opening game in which the Raiders are favorites, Mendoza’s first start could be pushed back until November, which would allow for a maximum of 10 starts for the first-overall pick.
The Raiders have a Week 13 bye, which is favorable to the under
An early bye would make it easier to insert the rookie earlier in the season.
From Week 4 through Week 7, the Raiders face a gauntlet of difficult opponents.
Games against the Patriots, Chiefs, Bills, and Rams seem like an unlikely time to insert a rookie quarterback.
A Week 8 matchup against the Jets seems like the most likely scenario for the Raiders to start Mendoza.
If limited to the 10 final starts, which include two games against the Broncos and a game against the Seahawks, 230 yards per game given the limited receiving options outside of Brock Bowers is a lofty target.
The Raiders understand they are in rebuilding mode, evidenced by a failed Maxx Crosby trade earlier in the offseason, so it makes sense that Cousins starts in the opening months of the season.
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Running Back Season Props: 2026 Rushing Overs & Unders
- David Montgomery — Over 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-102)
- Jonathan Taylor — Under 1224.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
David Montgomery 2026 Over/Under Prediction
The Houston Texans traded a player and two draft picks, including a 2026 fourth-round pick, for David Montgomery.
They followed the trade by upgrading his contract.
Going back two seasons, the Texans acquired Joe Mixon.
Mixon handled more than 89% of the running back carries in nine of his 14 starts that year, including two games with 100% of the running back carries despite dealing with an ankle injury throughout the season.
Mixon eclipsed 20 carries in half of his starts in 2024.
Given the fact that the Texans are favorites to win the AFC South and are buoyed by an elite defense, Montgomery could be trusted to protect leads on a team projected for favorable game scripts.
Before splitting the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs, who is currently the highest-paid running back in the league, Montgomery handled more than 200 carries in each of his first five NFL seasons.
Montgomery has proven he can handle a large workload throughout his entire career.
Xavier Hutchinson finished 2025 second on the team in wide receiver routes, and Christian Kirk ran 21 routes per game when healthy, ahead of Day 2 picks Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.
DeMeco Ryans has shown time and time again he trusts his elite defense and veterans on offense, which favors Montgomery.
Woody Marks had an unremarkable season as a rookie, averaging 3.6 yards per carry, which provides runway for Montgomery to handle as much of the rushing work as possible.
Rich Hribar points out in his running back tiers that Montgomery is a schematic fit for Nick Caley’s man/gap rush attack.
The Texans ranked second in the league in man/gap run rate last year.
Montgomery had a 50% success rate and led all running backs in EPA per rush on man/gap runs.
The offensive line is a concern, but the Texans overhauled the five-man unit that ranked 32nd in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate last season.
Even if the line does not improve, this is a bet based on volume over efficiency.
There are strong signals for a 200-250 carry season, and I would not be shocked if Montgomery is among the leaders in rush attempts, pushing 280 carries if he remains healthy.
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Jonathan Taylor 2026 Over/Under Prediction
There is no denying that Jonathan Taylor is a workhorse running back, and he is coming off the second-best season of his career.
He led the league with 323 carries and racked up 1,585 rushing yards.
This is more a bet about volume regression and a bit of a fade on the Colts from a team perspective.
Over the past two seasons, Taylor has averaged 22.4 carries and 126 rushing yards in wins.
That average drops to 18.6 rushes and 76.4 yards in losses, a massive 50-yard discrepancy depending on game state.
Over the past four seasons, Taylor has averaged under 5.0 yards per carry in every season, making it likely that 260 to 280 carries are required to exceed the season-long total.
Although Taylor had his contract extended, Shane Steichen has mentioned the desire to decrease his workload.
The contract may give the Colts even more incentive to protect their investment.
Taylor had a league-high 86.7% of the running back carries last season, which is due for regression.
The Colts' season-long win total has trickled down this offseason.
Questions about the offense continue to pile up as Daniel Jones returns from an Achilles injury.
Alec Pierce has not started practicing following offseason surgery, and Josh Downs has already had a groin injury.
The Colts had the league's most efficient offense in the opening two months of 2025.
It will be difficult to repeat that offensive success if injuries mount up given the lack of receiver depth, which will result in fewer offensive plays and more trailing game scripts.
If the Colts do struggle, a distinct possibility according to betting markets, managing Taylor's workload becomes more likely down the stretch.
Taylor turns 27 this season, and his age introduces a layer of risk as he has only played 17 games in two of his first five seasons.
Should Taylor miss any time or the Colts struggle, reaching the required number of carries to eclipse 1,225 yards will be difficult.
This is not a bet questioning Taylor’s talent or ability.
It is a bet on volume reduction from 2025, which is a difficult season to replicate.
Taylor's 2025 production was outstanding, but it also represented a near-perfect environment for a high-end rushing total.
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Wide Receiver Season Props: 2026 Receiving Overs & Unders
- D.J. Moore — Over 59.5 Receptions (-115)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Under 1324.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
D.J. Moore 2026 Over/Under Prediction
D.J. Moore is coming off two lackluster seasons by his standards, but a new environment and the opportunity to play with Josh Allen may have created the perfect recipe for an excellent buy-low opportunity.
Moore has been seen smiling throughout training camp as he enters 2026 in a dramatically different situation after being traded from Chicago to Buffalo.
Instead of playing in an environment where something was clearly not right personally and in a Ben Johnson offense where his target share declined significantly, Moore now gets to catch passes from a former MVP quarterback while reuniting with Joe Brady, his former offensive coordinator in Carolina.
The biggest reason to bet Moore’s over is simple: Allen is without a doubt the best quarterback Moore has ever had passing him the ball.
Moore has spent most of his career dealing with inconsistent quarterback situations, yet he has still exceeded 1,000 receiving yards in four seasons.
He enters his ninth season averaging more than 1,000 receiving yards per season.
Moore is also a huge upgrade at the wide receiver position for Allen.
The Bills have not produced a 1,000-yard-wide receiver in either of the previous two seasons since Stefon Diggs’ departure, while their average target depth ranked last in the NFL in 2025.
Moore doesn't need an unreasonable target share to beat his season-long receiving-yardage line, but he should command a target share over 20% given the receiver depth in Buffalo.
The Bills entered the 2024 season with a new slogan: Everybody Eats.
Sean McDermott tried to spin that into a positive after the Bills parted ways with Diggs.
However, targets are earned.
The “Everybody Eats” slogan was admitting to everyone what was glaringly obvious: There wasn’t an alpha target earner on the roster.
In an interview, Ian Rapoport talked about Moore as a breakout candidate for the upcoming fantasy season, but fantasy gamers should be aware that “the Buffalo Bills like to spread the ball around.”
Again, this is a mythical statement and is a byproduct of a lackluster receiving room.
Diggs was a member of the Buffalo Bills from 2020 to 2023.
In those four years, he led all NFL receivers in receptions, was second in targets, and had 28.0% of the Bills' total team targets over that span.
Before last season, Moore had four consecutive seasons in which he had over 26% of his team’s targets.
In 2021, Brady’s final season as the Carolina Panthers offensive coordinator, Moore had 28.3% of the team's targets and 40.2% of the team’s total air yards.
In that season, Moore caught passes from Cam Newton, Sam Darnold, and PJ Walker and still exceeded 1,150 receiving yards.
The projections in the Sharp Football Analysis Draft Kit are bullish on Moore joining the Bills.
Our projections have Moore projected for 83 receptions and more than 1,100 receiving yards, well over the season-long yardage prop.
One of the biggest risks of betting season-long overs is injury.
Moore has played every game in the past five seasons and has played 15 or more games in all eight seasons to start his career.
Moore has played through injury in the past, which helps give him the opportunity to continue to accumulate volume over the full season.
The market may be overreacting to Moore’s 2025 season and overconfident that his decline is age-related.
In addition to our projections supporting the over, in the Wide Receiver Trends article, Rich Hribar highlighted that when searching for wide receivers to exceed expectations, one of the more common hits comes from players changing situations, making Moore a solid bet this season.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2026 Over/Under Prediction
Smith-Njigba is coming off a season in which he had 35.8% of the Seahawks' targets and 50% of the team’s air yards
He also led the league in receiving yards.
It may seem difficult to bet the under on a player ascending to superstar status, but those numbers will be nearly impossible to repeat.
The market is pricing in another elite season, and betting the under is essentially betting that his 2025 season represents the high-end of his range rather than the beginning of a new top-two receiver in the league baseline.
Five receivers exceeded 1,300 receiving yards last season, and only two the season prior.
The high total is extremely difficult to reach and requires good fortune as well as skill.
Smith-Njigba's 2025 production was extraordinary, but producing at that level is the biggest reason to bet the under.
The third-year breakout shouldn’t surprise many since Smith-Njigba was the first receiver off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft, but he more than doubled his career high in yards per route.
Klint Kubiak pulled all the right levers in his first year with the Seahawks, as Smith-Njigba recorded 575 yards on his 14 receptions that traveled more than 20 air yards (41.1 yards per reception).
That type of success on deep passes will be difficult to replicate.
Smith-Njigba dominated Seattle's target distribution.
He was fifth in targets despite the Seahawks finishing the season 29th in pass attempts.
In his first two seasons, Smith-Njigba was targeted on 20.9% of his routes.
That jumped to 33.5% last season.
As well as target regression, efficiency regression could be coming.
He averaged 15.1 yards per reception in 2025, up from 11.3 yards per reception in 2024 and 10.0 yards per reception in his rookie season.
Target competition should increase.
The Seahawks re-signed Rashid Shaheed to a lucrative deal in the offseason, signalling the likelihood of an increasing role for the speedy wide receiver who joined the team at the trade deadline.
What made Smith-Njigba’s 2025 season so incredible was the consistency with which he performed.
He eclipsed 70 or more receiving yards in 16 games.
That type of consistency will be difficult to replicate considering teams will be more focused on shutting down the best passing option for the Seahawks.
With two weeks to prepare, the Patriots forced the Seahawks to use ancillary receivers, limiting Smith-Njigba to 4 receptions and 27 yards in the Super Bowl.
It is likely that teams will copy this blueprint, forcing the Seahawks to use other receiving options more than in the 2025 season.
A new offensive environment adds uncertainty.
Seattle is also entering 2026 with their third different offensive coordinator in the three seasons under Mike Macdonald.
Although new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury comes from the same coaching tree as Kubiak, he joins the Seahawks as a first-time play-caller, a difficult task given the fact that the head coach is a defensive guru.
Despite winning a Super Bowl, Sam Darnold isn’t a lock as one of the league’s best passers.
In fact, he had 10 interceptions in his opening 10 games as a Seahawk and isn’t exempt from seeing ghosts.
Last year's Super Bowl victory has provided a bit of market overconfidence in an offense with several ranges of outcomes.
The under has several paths to victory: target regression, increased competition from Shaheed, Tory Horton, AJ Barner, and Elijah Arroyo, regression in yards per reception, changes in Seattle's offensive distribution, or simply missing a game or two.
A successful season doesn't have to assume Smith-Njigba falls back to his rookie-season production.
The combination of slightly fewer targets and slightly lower yards per target can have a significant effect over a full season.
He could catch 100-plus passes, remain one of the league's most productive receivers, and still finish below 1,325 yards.
This bet is simply a bet against the unsustainable success of last season and the market’s potential overconfidence in the wide receiver and Seahawks offense after one incredible season.
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