Super Bowl LIX brings a rematch with the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles once again battling for the Lombardi Trophy.

While the betting market offers an endless array of props, player specials, and exotic wagers, the foundation of any betting breakdown starts with the two most basic bets: the point spread (ATS) and the game total.

Can Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs cover as slight favorites, or will the Eagles dictate the pace?

Here’s what I envision for Super Bowl LIX’s most fundamental bets.

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Chiefs vs. Eagles covered in our Super Bowl 59 Hub.

Super Bowl 59 Prediction: Chiefs -1.5 vs. Eagles

When the moment demands greatness, Patrick Mahomes delivers.

With his fifth Super Bowl start, tying John Elway for second-most all-time, Mahomes has built a career on thriving in chaos.

He’s trailed by double digits in each of his four previous appearances…and won three.

The Chiefs' unmatched playoff pedigree isn't just a stat. It’s a reality. Down late? No problem. Need a perfect drive? Mahomes makes it happen.

His adaptability under pressure is what separates him from the rest. Despite playing behind an offensive line that surrendered 41 sacks this season, Mahomes ranks second in success rate and fourth in EPA per dropback when pressured.

Philadelphia’s pass rush is elite, but Mahomes has seen it all before.

Quick-release throws, surgical efficiency, and an ability to exploit weaknesses — as he did against Houston and Pittsburgh late in the season — neutralize even the best defensive fronts. The Eagles may bring the heat, but Mahomes is the storm.

Defensively, Kansas City has the formula to disrupt Jalen Hurts.

The Chiefs’ pass rush, anchored by Chris Jones, is relentless, and Hurts ranks just 19th in success rate under pressure.

Philadelphia’s offense relies heavily on Saquon Barkley’s production, but the Chiefs’ run defense is built to contain explosive backs (2nd in yards per rush, and 3rd in rushes of 10-plus yards), forcing Hurts to beat them through the air, a matchup that favors Kansas City.

Their secondary has already shut down top receivers like Khalil Shakir and Nico Collins. A.J. Brown is next on the list.

The Chiefs are 17-0 in one-score games since 2023. They don’t just survive tight situations. They own them.

The Eagles have talent, but when the clock winds down, there’s only one quarterback I trust: Mahomes.

He has seven game-winning drives in the 4th quarter or overtime in playoffs, second most behind Tom Brady.

In a matchup as big as the Super Bowl, sometimes you have to ignore the stats and trust what your eyes and history tell you.

Betting against Mahomes has rarely paid off. Andy Reid. The moment. The dynasty continues. Chiefs -1.5.

Tip: Chiefs -125 on the moneyline is also the way to go. Just win.

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Super Bowl 59 Prediction: Chiefs vs. Eagles Under 49

This isn’t a game built for fireworks. It’s a battle of tempo, control, and defensive dominance.

The Philadelphia Eagles don’t just play slow. They dictate it.

With a league-leading 621 rushing attempts and a commitment to grinding down defenses, they have mastered the art of limiting possessions.

Saquon Barkley is the engine of this offense, with his 2,005-yard season proving the Eagles' reliance on the ground game.

Jalen Hurts, dealing with lingering knee concerns, has seen his dropbacks decrease from 39 per game early in the season to just 27, further emphasizing their risk-averse strategy.

The Eagles aren’t here for an air show. They’ll bleed the clock with Barkley’s bruising 6.5 yards per carry in the playoffs and Hurts’ methodical, short-pass approach — his 5.7 air yards per attempt ranked 31st in the league.

But it’s not just Philadelphia controlling tempo. Kansas City, for all of Patrick Mahomes’ brilliance, has thrived in low-scoring, defensive battles.

Both the Eagles and the Chiefs are top 10 in plays per game, and both teams have reasons to avoid a shootout.

The Eagles use their 32:07 average time of possession — the highest in the league — to keep Mahomes off the field.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have limited explosive plays this season, favoring a methodical, efficient passing attack that minimizes turnovers.

With both teams leaning into their strengths — Philadelphia’s run-heavy grind and Kansas City’s defensive discipline — Super Bowl LIX sets up as a battle of attrition.

Expect long drives, clock-killing possessions, and points at a premium.

Under 49 is the move. 22-20 anyone?