Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Texans Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Texans win this season?
The Texans are predicted to win 4.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Texans Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
Rookie quarterback, Davis Mills exceeded expectations as a third-round draft pick. Despite starting 13 games, Mills led all rookies with four 300-yard passing games and finished second with 16 passing touchdowns.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
The offensive line was decimated by injuries in 2021, finishing with the third-most adjusted games lost. Lacking significant depth, the line struggled for most of the season finishing last in adjusted line yards.
Optimism exists for this group as Tytus Howard allowed the lowest pressure rate of all left tackles who played over 100 snaps in 2021. Laremy Tunsil returns from injury and first-round draft pick Kenyon Green, the line should provide more help in both the running and passing game.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
In 2021 all three victories were by nine points or more, including victories over the Chargers and Titans. After finishing 0-4 in one-score games, the Texans can improve on that record with an improvement in field goal luck.
The Texans had multiple kickers in 2021 that combined for -1.1 field goals over expectation after finishing 2020 with 1.1 field goals over expectation.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Texans Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The Texans have the fifth-most difficult strength of schedule, the hardest of any teams with a third-place schedule. Adding on to the difficult schedule of opponents is the second-worst net rest, including three of the final nine games in which the opponent has a rest advantage.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The Texans’ roster needs to vastly improve on offense and defense as they finished 2021 last in net yards/play. The offense finished last in total yards and third-worst in yards per play and the defense gave up the second-most yards and yards per play.
Hindering the roster build is the fourth highest dead cap allocation, and although the team added young talent in the draft, the team is lacking depth.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
The Texans added talent to the secondary with Derek Stingley and Jalen Pitre, but outside of the rookies, the defense lacks star power. Lacking elite pass rushers teams are likely to beat the Texans through the air. The 2021 Texans allowed the third-highest success rate on targets to both tight ends and wide receivers.
The addition of a top-5 draft pick helps but is likely not enough to keep the Texans out of the bottom five in pass defenses.
Houston Texans Strength of Schedule:
The Texans are ranked #28 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the fifth hardest schedule for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.