Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is finally here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Chiefs and Chargers facing off in Brazil on Friday night and the Cardinals visiting the rebuilding Saints on Sunday as we look for value against the spread in the opening weekend.
Week 1 Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -3
The Chiefs were blown out by the Eagles in the Super Bowl when we last saw them play.
However, the 2025 Chargers aren’t the 2024 Eagles.
These AFC West foes played two close contests in 2024, with the Chiefs winning 17-10 and covering a 6.5-point spread in Week 4 in Los Angeles.
They won 19-17 in Kansas City in Week 14, but failed to cover the 4.5-point spread.
The Chiefs and Chargers have made meaningful personnel changes in the offseason.
Nevertheless, the Chiefs are starting at a higher point, and they still have their most critical pieces in the fold.
Namely, Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo, Chris Jones, and Trent McDuffie haven’t gone anywhere.
Of course, the Chiefs have other critical holdovers.
The Chargers also have some encouraging continuity.
Unfortunately, their stud left tackle, Rashawn Slater, suffered a season-ending ruptured patellar tendon in practice in the offseason, removing a crucial piece from Los Angeles’s offense.
Circling back to the Chiefs, Mahomes and Reid have excelled out of the gate.
In Mahomes’ seven seasons as a starter, the Chiefs have gone 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1.
Their only loss, which was one of their two losses ATS, was against the Lions in Week 1 in 2023.
The Lions were a 12-5 team in 2023 that reached the NFC Championship Game.
Furthermore, Travis Kelce was out due to an injury, while Chris Jones missed the contest while holding out for a new contract.
Mahomes and Reid have also thrived in neutral site games.
They’ve played seven games at a neutral site since 2018, going 5-2 ATS.
Both of their ATS losses were in the Super Bowl, suffering defeats to the Buccaneers in 2020 and the Eagles in 2024.
They’re 2-0 ATS at neutral sites in the regular season since Mahomes’ first year as a starter in 2018.
Kansas City’s combination of Week 1 and neutral site excellence is a good enough reason for me to lay the 3 points with the favored Chiefs.
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Week 1 Prediction: Arizona Cardinals -6.5
The Cardinals were 11-6 ATS in 2024.
They opened last year by covering as 7-point road underdogs against the Bills, and they were 5-3 ATS on the road.
Arizona was 8-9 last season.
However, their +21 point differential was the best in the NFC West.
Trey McBride emerged as one of the NFL’s best tight ends and Kyler Murray’s top passing-game weapon last year, and James Conner had an outstanding season as the focal point of the rushing attack.
Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t light the world on fire as a rookie, but he had a stellar campaign and could take a step forward in his sophomore season.
With the backbone of Arizona’s offense in place, they spent the offseason making much-needed additions to the defense via free agency and the NFL Draft.
The Cardinals added Josh Sweat, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Calais Campbell to their defensive line as free agents and spent top-100 picks on defensive tackle Walter Nolen (pick 16), cornerback Will Johnson (pick 47), and defensive end Jordan Burch (pick 78).
Nolen will miss time to start the season, but the other additions should be ready to help immediately.
Head coach Jonathan Gannon’s background is on the defensive side of the ball, and he has new weapons at his disposal this season.
The Cardinals have a soft matchup in Week 1 against the Saints.
First-time head coach Kellen Moore named Spencer Rattler as New Orleans’ starting quarterback for Week 1.
Sadly for Moore, the Saints, and their fanbase, Rattler didn’t so much win the job.
He just wasn’t as dreadful as rookie Tyler Shough.
Rattler was Pro Football Focus’s (PFF’s) 37th-ranked passer among 98 with at least 10 dropbacks in the preseason, and Shough was tied for 51st.
More importantly, Rattler was a mess last season.
The Saints were 0-6 in Rattler’s six starts (Week 6 through Week 8 and Week 16 through Week 18), going 1-5 ATS.
New Orleans scored only 74 points in Rattler’s starts, averaging 12.3 points per game with a median of 10 points.
