Week 11 was difficult for passing across the league, as only 14 of the 28 starting quarterbacks threw for over 200 passing yards.
If you had Jacoby Brissett passing for 452 yards and Bryce Young passing for 448 yards on the bingo card, congratulations.
Game state continued to matter.
The Cardinals fell behind by a touchdown 16 seconds into the game and were down 2 touchdowns less than 10 minutes into the game.
Brissett was buoyed by the fact that both the Cardinal and 49er defenses are trending among the worst in the league as a result of injuries.
Young had a slightly different path, but the Panthers trailed at halftime by double digits, and hit his ceiling by completing a comeback and the game reaching overtime.
Through 11 weeks of the season, six of the weekly passing yardage leaders have been involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and four quarterbacks were trailing at halftime.
Jared Goff and the Lions offense scoring 42 points and winning by 3 touchdowns is the outlier.
Game state continues to be very important.
Teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.
Identifying which of the home underdogs can win or keep the game competitive should be the first step in selecting which games to attack for DFS and passing props.
This week has several games with double-digit point spreads and only two games currently lined under a field goal.
One of those features a matchup between Tyler Shough and Kirk Cousins.
Quarterback injuries are becoming a significant issue, and matchups are not ideal for high passing games this week.
NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Quarterback | Passing Yards | Opponent | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | 394 | Baltimore Ravens | 41-40 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | 450 | Dallas Cowboys | 37-40 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | 300 | Denver Broncos | 23-20 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | 375 | Indianapolis Colts | 27-20 |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | 389 | San Francisco 49ers | 23-26 |
| 6 | Mac Jones | 347 | Tampa Bay Bucs | 19-30 |
| 7 | Justin Herbert | 420 | Indianapolis Colts | 24-38 |
| 8 | Jordan Love | 360 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 35-25 |
| 9 | Joe Flacco | 470 | Chicago Bears | 42-47 |
| 10 | Jared Goff | 320 | Washington Commanders | 44-22 |
| 11 | Jacoby Brissett | 452 | San Francisco 49ers | 22-41 |
Most Week 12 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Jalen Hurts (+3000)
Is it likely Jalen Hurts has a spike passing game?
Probably not.
It has been well documented how uncreative the offense is in terms of routes by the wide receivers.
However, this is an offense with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown facing a Cowboys secondary.
The down-to-down efficiency is not great, but the Eagles lead the league in deep throw rate, which is very volatile but could produce some big plays.
The Eagle offense ranks first in deep passing EPA and faces a Cowboys defense that ranks last in deep pass EPA.
The Eagles will be without Lane Johnson, putting more responsibility on the passing game to succeed since rushing without him will be difficult.
The Eagles are definitely behind the league in terms of creating opportunities for wide receivers, but talent sometimes overcomes the overall situation.
An indoor game that features the best collective group of four wide receivers in any game this week has a tail outcome that can carry Hurts to a spike passing game.
Hurts has only attempted 35 passes in a single game this season.
It would not be surprising if his arm is leaned on more this game, either as a result of the Cowboys pushing the game or the running game having difficulties.
In the first meeting between these two teams, the Eagles had a 12-play drive that lasted 8 minutes and an 11-play drive that took over 7 minutes.
That is less likely in this game as the Cowboys have upgraded the run defense.
If the Eagles struggle to run, they could rely on high-variance explosive plays.
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Week 12 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Lamar Jackson and Tyrod Taylor Passing Ladders
- Jackson over 208.5 Passing Yards (-111)
- Taylor over 185.5 Passing Yards (-113)
- Taylor 220+ Passing Yards (+212)
- Taylor 250+ Passing Yards (+459)
- Taylor over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-121)
Believe it or not, the New York Jets rank seventh in pass success rate but rank 27th in EPA per dropback and 22 in EPA per rush.
Granted, the Jets have played the Browns and Patriots, but the defense has had a 67% rush success rate over the past two games despite trading Quinnen Williams.
Without Sauce Gardner, the Jets are likely to become a bit of a pass funnel.
That hasn’t been overly relevant to spike games since the offense has been abysmal, but the switch to Tyrod Taylor, if anything, gives the Jets some confidence to at least try to throw the ball.
Justin Fields had 170 passing yards over his final two games and attempted 13 total passes in the first half of those games.
This provides a bit of an opportunity for the Jets offense to potentially catch the Ravens off guard and create some explosive passes.
On the other side of the ball, Jackson is dealing with injuries and is averaging fewer than 6 rush attempts per game.
The biggest threat to Jackson’s passing ceiling was his rushing floor, which is lower as Jackson had 10 rushing yards last week.
The spread is large and the total is in the mid-40s, but this game has a potential ceiling if the Jets offense provides any sort of spark.
