For Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season, three games stand out for betting opportunities: the Minnesota Vikings visiting the Chicago Bears, the Arizona Cardinals traveling to face the Seattle Seahawks, and the San Francisco 49ers against Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.
From divisional rivalries to teams fighting for playoff positioning, these games offer a mix of high-stakes football and potentially lucrative betting angles.
Week 12 Best Bet Prediction: Vikings at Bears Under 39.5
The Vikings offense has been sputtering in the second half of games this season. Since their Week 1 performance against the Giants, Minnesota has managed to score just one second-half touchdown in their last four road games, averaging 7.5 second-half points per game on the road, the sixth fewest in the league. That is a troubling trend of late-game offensive stagnation.
Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell has taken a step back, simplifying the offensive playbook in an attempt to improve execution.
This “dialing down” of the offense has led to a reduction in exotic formations and pre-snap motion, dropping from 67% in the first eight weeks to 54% since playing the Colts.
While this approach may lead to improved efficiency, it could also result in a more predictable and less explosive offense in the short term.
The simplified offensive strategy has already shown its effects in the last two games, with a more balanced attack featuring 38 passing attempts to 43 carries in one game and 32 passing attempts to 33 carries in another.
This balanced approach, while potentially more consistent, may limit big-play opportunities and keep the score low.
Adding to the Vikings' offensive concerns is quarterback Sam Darnold, who is coming off a 3-interception performance against the Jaguars. Facing a Bears defense that leads the league in takeaways at home, Darnold's turnover-prone tendencies could further hinder the Vikings' scoring potential.
The Bears offense has its own set of challenges, primarily centered around rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.
His tendency to hold onto the ball too long and reluctance to throw it away has resulted in a league-leading 41 sacks, with 12 coming in just the last two games.
Williams' struggles are further highlighted by his limited yardage output, failing to surpass 160 passing yards in four games this season. The Bears offense has lacked a coherent strategy, failing to effectively utilize the run game or play-action passes to set up bigger plays.
Given these offensive limitations on both sides, combined with the Bears' propensity for takeaways at home and the Vikings' simplified offensive approach, the under 39.5 point total seems not just possible but probable as both teams grapple with their offensive shortcomings in what could be a defensive showcase at Soldier Field.
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Week 12 Prediction: Cardinals at Seahawks Under 47.5
The Seahawks, despite their home-field advantage, are grappling with a series of offensive challenges that could significantly hamper their ability to put points on the board.
At the heart of Seattle's struggles lies their beleaguered offensive line. Ranking a dismal 26th in PFF's pass-block win rate and 19th in run-block win rate, this unit has been the Achilles heel of the Seahawks' offense. The consequences of this poor line play are far-reaching and multifaceted.
Geno Smith has been under siege, facing the fifth-highest pressure rate in the NFL and enduring the fourth-most sacks in the league.
This constant pressure has disrupted the rhythm of the passing game and forced Smith into hurried decisions, often leading to drive-killing incompletions or, worse, turnovers — he is tied with a league-leading 11 interceptions.
The ground game hasn't fared any better.
Seattle's rushing attack has been anemic, ranking 28th with a mere 91.5 yards per game. This lack of balance has made the Seahawks offense predictable and easier for defenses to scheme against, further compounding their scoring woes.
Adding to their offensive struggles, the Seahawks have been their own worst enemy, committing the third-most penalties per game.
They lead the league in offensive holding penalties and rank third in false starts.
These self-inflicted wounds have consistently put the offense behind the chains, leading to an average of 8.9 yards to gain on third down attempts — a mark that would be the worst in the NFL since at least 1980 if it holds for the season.
These long-yardage situations have made it exceedingly difficult for Seattle to sustain drives and score consistently.
The impact is particularly noticeable in the red zone, where Smith has completed just five of his 22 passes into the end zone, dead last (32nd) in the league.
Given these offensive struggles, it's hard to envision the Seahawks putting up big numbers against the Cardinals.
Even if Arizona's offense manages to find some success, Seattle's inability to consistently move the ball and score points is likely to keep the overall game total in check.
Week 12 Prediction: Packers -2 vs. 49ers
Packers running back Josh Jacobs is coming off an impressive performance, averaging 7.3 yards per carry in his last outing and racking up 95 yards in his previous home game against the Lions, showcasing his ability to dominate at Lambeau.
This ground game aligns perfectly with the 49ers' recent struggles against the run.
San Francisco's defense has shown vulnerabilities, allowing 184 yards to the Chiefs and an average of 6.3 yards per carry between both the Cardinals and Vikings.
If this trend continues, Jacobs could have a field day, keeping the chains moving and the clock running in Green Bay's favor.
While the ground game sets the foundation, it's the Packers' passing attack that could truly blow this game open.
Jordan Love has proven he can stretch the field with an average depth of target of 9.5 yards (fourth-highest in the NFL) and 16 yards per attempt on deep throws (fifth-highest).
Love's connection with wide receiver Christian Watson has been particularly explosive. In their last game, Watson hauled in four receptions for a staggering 150 yards, demonstrating the big-play potential that could prove devastating against a 49ers secondary.
San Francisco's defense, once considered elite, has shown cracks in recent weeks.
They allowed Seattle's Geno Smith to orchestrate a game-winning drive, completing 7 of 8 passes for 54 yards, after giving up 312 passing yards to Smith in their Week 6 road matchup.
Adding to San Francisco's concerns, Brock Purdy is reportedly dealing with a sore throwing shoulder. Kyle Shanahan has listed him as day-to-day, casting doubt on his effectiveness even if he does play.
The Packers' pass rush, led by Rashan Gary, could capitalize on this vulnerability.
Green Bay's pressure has been suffocating this season, allowing a 49% completion rate and 4.4 yards per attempt when they get to the quarterback, both second-best in the league.
Back the Pack at home.
