Thanksgiving is finally here, and we have a great slate of games for the holiday.
Let's focus on the Cowboys against the Chiefs and the Ravens hosting the Bengals.
Thanksgiving Day Best Bet Prediction: Dallas Cowboys +3.5
It’s never a comfortable feeling to pick against Patrick Mahomes, especially when the 6-5 Chiefs remain backed up against the wall in a tight AFC playoff race.
Nevertheless, Mahomes and the Chiefs have the unenviable task of playing on the road in a short week after overtime on Sunday.
As Rich Hribar pointed out in the Week 13 Worksheet, the boss, Warren Sharp, was consulted for betting data since 2000 for teams on the road during a short week after overtime, and it’s unflattering for the Chiefs.
In the admittedly small sample of 20 occurrences, those teams were 4-16 straight up and against the spread (ATS).
Of the seven favorites in those 20 instances, they were 2-5 straight up and 0-7 ATS.
In yet another small sample, per StatHead, the Cowboys are 3-2 ATS at home this year, including 2-0 as home underdogs and winning as 3-point dogs against the visiting Eagles last week.
Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense have the firepower to hang if the game shoots out.
Per Sumer Sports, Prescott is tied for seventh among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.14).
Furthermore, the Cowboys are also sixth in EPA per pass (0.16) this season.
Meanwhile, according to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Chiefs have faced the eighth-highest pass rate over expectations (5.0% PROE) since Week 8.
The Cowboys have only the 11th-highest PROE (2.3%) since Week 8, but getting coaxed into airing it out more often could work to their advantage this week.
Circling to the other side of the ball, Dallas’ acquisition of Quinnen Williams could pay dividends for the defense the rest of the season.
Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), among 112 interior defensive linemen with at least 200 snaps this year, Williams is tied for second in stops (27) and tied for ninth in hurries (25).
Williams can impact both the run and the pass.
Moreover, Williams will have an easier assignment this week than if the Chiefs were at full health.
Sadly for Kansas City, Trey Smith has been ruled out.
Interior pressure could derail Mahomes’ passing efficiency.
Among 39 quarterbacks who’ve dropped back at least 50 times under pressure this year, Mahomes is tied for the 10th-highest turnover-worthy play rate (5.4%) and 32nd in completion percentage (42.2%).
There’s a path to the Cowboys upsetting the Chiefs this week or at least covering the 3.5-point spread offered at DraftKings Sportsbook at -115 odds.
Thanksgiving Day Best Bet Prediction: Baltimore Ravens Over 30.5 Points
The Ravens opened the season with 40, 41, 30, and 20 points through their first four games.
Unfortunately, Lamar Jackson injured his hamstring against the Chiefs in Week 4, and the offense hasn’t been the same, even after his return in Week 9.
The Ravens have scored 30 points or fewer in nine straight contests.
Furthermore, since the Ravens hung 28 points on the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, Baltimore has scored 27, 23, and 23 points.
The Bengals are the optimal elixir for what ails Baltimore’s offense.
Cincinnati has allowed the most EPA per play (0.19), the most EPA per pass (0.26), tied for the third-most EPA allowed per rush (0.08), and the highest success rate (50.07%) allowed this year.
Their traditional metrics aren’t any prettier.
According to Pro Football Reference, Cincinnati’s defense is tied for the most yards allowed per play (6.3), has the fourth-lowest pressure rate (17.1%), ceded the most passing yards per game (259.8), coughed up the second-most rushing yards per game (156.0), and has allowed the most points per game (32.7), 4.2 more points per game than the second-worst scoring defense.
The Bengals don’t have much talent on defense, and Trey Hendrickson has already been ruled out.
Hendrickson last cleared a 50% defensive snap share in Week 5.
In a reduced capacity in Week 6 and Week 8, the Bengals allowed 27 points to the Packers and 39 to the Jets.
Without Hendrickson in Week 7, Week 9, and the two games since their Week 10 bye, they’ve allowed 27, 47, 34, and 26 points to the Steelers, Bears, Steelers, and Patriots.
Thus, the Bengals have allowed an average of 33.5 points per game, with a median of 30.5 in games without Hendrickson this year.
Even if lower-body injuries have hampered Jackson’s play, he can play competently enough against Cincinnati’s Charmin-soft defense to move the ball through the air.
More importantly, the Ravens can run roughshod over and through the Bengals.
Since Jackson returned in Week 9, the Ravens are 22nd in pass rate over expected (-2.5%).
They should have ample incentive to feed Derrick Henry this week.
First, in King Henry’s last four games with Jackson back in the saddle, he’s rumbled for 90.3 rushing yards per game, 4.63 yards per carry, 2.21 yards before contact per attempt, 2.42 yards after contact per attempt, and a 5.1% explosive run rate.
Second, the Bengals aren’t showing any signs of stiffening against the run.
Instead, Cincinnati has yielded the second-most rushing yards per game (188.8), 5.68 yards per carry, and a 6.8% explosive run rate since Week 8.
Ideally, the return of Joe Burrow from turf toe and Ja’Marr Chase from a one-game suspension for spitting on Jalen Ramsey will force the Ravens to keep playing inspired offense until the final whistle.
Still, even if the Ravens are protecting a lead by taking the air out of the ball, they can keep scoring while pounding the rock and chewing up the clock against a non-existent run defense.
As a result, the Ravens have a stellar shot to exceed 30.5 points against the Bengals on Thursday night, whether it’s in a back-and-forth shootout or while capping off a dominant victory.
