Shedeur Sanders led all Sunday quarterbacks in passing yards last week, and I passed over him because of poor process.
The Browns-Titans game was one of only a couple of games under a 3-point spread, and the Titans have struggled to limit passing this season.
Regardless of the weather, the only thing Sanders needed to push his ceiling was the Titans' scoring early to force the Browns to chase the game.
Variance happens, and a 14-0 first quarter lead shouldn’t have been seen as an extreme outlier, but it provided Sanders the perfect recipe for a spike week.
Gamestate continues to be the most important storyline for peak passing outcomes.
Outlier performances come from games that go right down to the wire or teams that fall behind early.
Through 14 weeks of the season, eight of the weekly passing yardage leaders have been involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and five quarterbacks were trailing at halftime.
Jared Goff and the Lions offense scoring 42 points and winning by 3 touchdowns was the outlier.
Game state continues to be very important as teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.
This week features a slate with larger spreads, which could limit the passing ceiling for some of the elite quarterbacks.
NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Quarterback | Passing Yards | Opponent | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | 394 | Baltimore Ravens | 41-40 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | 450 | Dallas Cowboys | 37-40 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | 300 | Denver Broncos | 23-20 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | 375 | Indianapolis Colts | 27-20 |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | 389 | San Francisco 49ers | 23-26 |
| 6 | Mac Jones | 347 | Tampa Bay Bucs | 19-30 |
| 7 | Justin Herbert | 420 | Indianapolis Colts | 24-38 |
| 8 | Jordan Love | 360 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 35-25 |
| 9 | Joe Flacco | 470 | Chicago Bears | 42-47 |
| 10 | Jared Goff | 320 | Washington Commanders | 44-22 |
| 11 | Jacoby Brissett | 452 | San Francisco 49ers | 22-41 |
| 12 | Jameis Winston | 366 | Detroit Lions | 27-34 |
| 13 | Bo Nix | 321 | Washington Commanders | 27-26 |
| 14 | Dak Prescott | 376 | Detroit Lions | 30-44 |
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Most Week 15 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Jared Goff (+1100)
The Los Angeles Rams are 6-point home favorites in a game featuring the highest total of the week.
The Lions built an early lead, allowing them to remain balanced against the Cowboys.
What has flown under the radar is the fact that Jahmyr Gibbs has been held under 3.6 yards per attempt in three of his past four games.
The Rams are third in EPA per rush allowed.
The Lions are likely going to have to win this game through the air.
Boosting Goff’s ceiling is the potential that the Lions are super aggressive on fourth down in a game that Dan Campbell knows they have to put up multiple touchdowns to win.
A week ago, Jacoby Brissett managed 271 passing yards against this Rams unit in a trailing game state.
The Lions offense has capable pass catchers to lift Goff to a ceiling game, including Gibbs and Jameson Williams, who are explosive after the catch.
This game has taken money to the over.
It is likely that the Lions are chasing and need to remain aggressive from the start to win, which leads me to think that Goff can outproduce Matthew Stafford, who should still be very productive.
Week 15 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Cam Ward Ladders
- 2+ Passing TDs (+214)
- 3+ Passing TDs (+910)
- Over 190.5 Passing Yards (-111)
- 250+ Passing Yards (+408)
Cam Ward has played an absolute gauntlet of defenses in his rookie season.
In his 13 starts, he’s faced a defense that ranks in the top 12 in terms of EPA allowed per play 11 times, including five straight games against top-six defenses.
That changes this week as he travels to face a 49ers team that has faced a mediocre slate of opposing quarterbacks outside of division games.
In non-division games, the 49ers have faced Spencer Rattler, Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, Michael Penix, C.J. Stroud, Jaxson Dart, Bryce Young, and Shedeur Sanders.
Not a single quarterback listed is ranked in the top 10 of EPA + CPOE composite.
Despite the schedule, the 49ers rank 27th in EPA per dropback allowed, which provides Ward a much different outlook than the previous five weeks.
Opposing quarterbacks complete 69.2% of passes against the 49ers.
Only the Miami Dolphins allow a higher completion percentage.
In addition, the 49ers are last in the league with 16 quarterback sacks and 31st with a 29.7% pressure rate, which helps Ward, who has been sacked 49 times this season.
The Titans defense ranks below the 49ers in EPA per pass attempt, which creates an avenue for this game to be higher scoring.
The 49ers are going to have offensive success, and the path for the Titans to also move the ball is much easier than in past weeks, giving this game sneaky shootout potential.
