Last week, Kirk Cousins turned back the clock and threw for 373 yards on Thursday Night Football to lead all quarterbacks in Week 15 passing yards.
Matthew Stafford led all Sunday quarterbacks in passing yards, edging out Jared Goff in a game that jumped off the page for quarterback passing.
Sharp subscribers were given Stafford passing overs, and the article selected Goff as the weekly leader, as the game had an ideal setup for a back-and-forth passing shootout.
The article selected Goff based on the opinion that the Lions, as touchdown underdogs, would likely trail and have to chase the game.
However, it was the Lions that jumped out to an early lead, propelling Stafford to 246 passing yards in the second and third quarters.
Gamestate continues to be the most important storyline for peak passing outcomes.
Outlier performances come from games that go right down to the wire or teams that fall behind early.
Through 15 weeks of the season, eight of the weekly passing yardage leaders have been involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and six quarterbacks were trailing at halftime.
Jared Goff and the Lions offense scoring 42 points and winning by 3 touchdowns was the outlier.
Game state continues to be very important as teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.
Sunday features a smaller slate, and all but two games are lined within a touchdown or less, giving plenty of options to chase for most passing yards.
Both Jaguars-Broncos and Patriots-Ravens provide plenty of intrigue amongst teams fighting for playoff games, and the Falcons-Cardinals game has shootout potential.
NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Quarterback | Passing Yards | Opponent | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | 394 | Baltimore Ravens | 41-40 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | 450 | Dallas Cowboys | 37-40 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | 300 | Denver Broncos | 23-20 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | 375 | Indianapolis Colts | 27-20 |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | 389 | San Francisco 49ers | 23-26 |
| 6 | Mac Jones | 347 | Tampa Bay Bucs | 19-30 |
| 7 | Justin Herbert | 420 | Indianapolis Colts | 24-38 |
| 8 | Jordan Love | 360 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 35-25 |
| 9 | Joe Flacco | 470 | Chicago Bears | 42-47 |
| 10 | Jared Goff | 320 | Washington Commanders | 44-22 |
| 11 | Jacoby Brissett | 452 | San Francisco 49ers | 22-41 |
| 12 | Jameis Winston | 366 | Detroit Lions | 27-34 |
| 13 | Bo Nix | 321 | Washington Commanders | 27-26 |
| 14 | Dak Prescott | 376 | Detroit Lions | 30-44 |
| 15 | Kirk Cousins | 373 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 29-28 |
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Most Week 16 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Baker Mayfield (+1700)
It’s not a coincidence that Mayfield had his best game in terms of yardage and efficiency over the past two months the moment that Mike Evans returned to the lineup.
Mayfield is undervalued this week given the importance of this game for both teams and the fact that his receiver room is back to full health, as even Jalen McMillan contributed last week.
The Buccaneers are a pass funnel, which forced Dave Canales to pivot from his run-heavy approach last season.
If the same happens this year, Mayfield’s ceiling is elevated.
Young had 46 pass attempts against the Buccaneers in the first matchup last season.
That matchup between the Buccaneers and Panthers had 145 combined plays.
That was the most of any game in Canales' tenure as the Panthers head coach and 22.5 more plays than the average Panther game over the last two seasons.
The Panthers are allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt and are 23rd in EPA per pass.
Mayfield had 359 passing yards against this defense in the second meeting last season.
Mayfield ran for 68 yards in his last game, his highest total of the season, implying he is slightly healthier and has extra rest.
That is a boost for a quarterback dealing with season long injuries.
This game should remain competitive, which is critical for a passing ceiling.
Both teams could turn to the passing game more than expected, which would bump play volume and shootout potential.
On a shorter slate, with less of a high-end outcome needed to take down the passing total, chasing a longer shot makes some sense this week.
Week 16 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Trevor Lawrence & Bo Nix Combined Passing Yards (DraftKings)
- 475+ Combined Passing Yards (+104)
- 525+ Combined Passing Yards (+243)
- 575+ Combined Passing Yards (+575)
Just as everyone predicted at the beginning of the season, this matchup features division leaders who have combined for 22 wins up to this point in the season.
The Jaguars and Broncos defenses are both top-six in rushing DVOA, setting up a potential pass-heavy game between Lawrence and Nix.
The Jaguars rank second in defensive rush success rate, and the Broncos have struggled to run since losing J.K. Dobbins.
Both the Jaguars and Broncos have leaned pass-heavy over the past few weeks.
Nix has averaged 38.5 pass attempts over the past month, and the Broncos have passed 6% over expectation over that span.
A game against the pass-funnel Jaguars provides a ceiling opportunity for Nix.
The Jaguars passed 9% over expectation last week as Trevor Lawrence had 5 passing touchdowns against the Jets.
Travis Etienne has averaged 3.0 yards per rush over the past three weeks, which could push the Jaguars to lean on the pass against the Broncos.
With both teams potentially leaning on the pass, play volume would increase, helping out both quarterbacks' passing totals.
