Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Broncos against the Jaguars and the Lions facing the Steelers.
Week 16 Best Bet Prediction: Denver Broncos -3 (-105)
The Broncos and Jaguars are their respective division leaders, and Denver is currently the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
The game could be a playoff preview, and the location played a critical role in choosing to lay the 3 points with the Broncos.
Bo Nix hasn’t been a model of consistency in his young career. However, he’s played markedly better at home than on the road.
According to StatHead, in 17 road games, Nix has a 64.3% completion rate, 3,396 passing yards (199.8 per game), 5.56 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), 20 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, a 4.19% sack rate, a 41.8% success rate, and an 87.1 quarterback rating.
Conversely, in 15 home games, Nix has a 65.3% completion rate, 3,779 yards (251.9 per game), a 6.82 ANY/A, 33 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, a 3.15% sack rate, and a 96.6 quarterback rating.
Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence hasn’t performed as well on the road as at home this season.
T-Law has tallied 237.8 passing yards per game, 13 passing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 1 fumble lost, and a 90.1 quarterback rating in eight home games.
He has logged 218 passing yards per game, 10 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost, and an 84.7 quarterback rating in six road tilts.
Lawrence will be greeted by a fearsome defense in Denver this week.
According to Sumer Sports, the Broncos are eighth in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (-0.07), tied for sixth in EPA allowed per pass (-0.08), 12th in EPA allowed per rush (-0.05), and second in success rate allowed (37.53%).
The Jaguars also have a talented defense, ranking fourth in EPA allowed per play (-0.09) and eighth in success rate allowed (41.60%).
However, they haven’t done as well at keeping teams off the scoreboard on the road as at home.
Jacksonville has coughed up 144 points (24 per game) in six road games this year, yielding a median of 26.5.
The Jags are 4-2 on the road, with wins against the Titans, 49ers, Cardinals, and Raiders and losses by 4 points to the Bengals in Week 2 and 7 points to the Davis Mills-led Texans in Week 10.
The Broncos are monsters at home.
As Rich Hribar pointed out in the Week 16 Fantasy Football Worksheet, Denver is the final unbeaten team at home this season with a 7-0 record.
Only one of their victories was by fewer than 3 points this year.
The Broncos should be able to take advantage of their friendly home confines and beat the Jaguars by more than 3 points this week.
Week 16 Best Bet Prediction: Detroit Lions Over 30.5 Points (-105)
The Lions have a wagon for an offense.
Detroit is fourth in EPA per play (0.11), tied for fourth in EPA per pass (0.19), tied for 10th in EPA per rush (0), and 11th in success rate (45.10%).
Additionally, according to Pro Football Reference, the Lions are tied for first in yards per play (6.2) and first in scoring offense (30.6).
Detroit has kicked its scoring up a notch at home.
Per StatHead, they’ve scored 236 points (33.7 per game) in seven home games, with a median of 34.
The Lions have cleared 30.5 points in four home games this season.
Unsurprisingly, Jared Goff has balled out at home.
He has a 70.4% completion rate, 267.3 passing yards per game, 8.00 ANY/A, 15 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and a 112.5 quarterback rating in seven home games.
Goff’s life will likely be easier this week than facing a fully stocked defense for the Steelers.
T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig haven’t practiced for Week 16.
They’re Pittsburgh’s best pass rushers.
The Steelers also have substantial on-off splits with Watt, allowing a 70.9% completion rate (31st), a league-high 8.7 yards per attempt, and a 5.5% touchdown rate (20th) with Watt off the field, per Rich’s research in the Week 16 Fantasy Football Worksheet.
Derrick Harmon is trending toward returning this week after logging full practices on Wednesday and Thursday.
He’ll help Pittsburgh’s run defense, which could embolden Dan Campbell to dial up the pass more often, a development that would be ideal for Detroit’s scoring outlook.
Detroit’s injury-ravaged defense could also force the offense to keep pouring it on as well.
The Lions have allowed four consecutive opponents to score at least 27 points, and five of their last seven opponents have tallied at least 27 points.
Detroit’s lethal offense on the other side of their leaky defense against a potentially Watt-less and Herbig-less Steelers defense is a recipe for the Lions to score more than 30.5 points this week.
