Week 17 of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Dolphins against the Bucs and the Saints against the Titans.
Week 17 Best Bet Prediction: Miami Dolphins Under 19.5 Points (+100)
The Buccaneers are in a tailspin, losing six of their last seven games coming out of a Week 9 bye.
If they lose on Sunday and the Panthers upset the visiting Seahawks, Carolina will clinch the NFC South before its Week 18 rematch with Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers shouldn’t be lacking for motivation.
Fortunately, they will also draw Quinn Ewers in his second career start.
The Dolphins scored 21 points in his first career start in Week 16, but that comes with the caveat of facing the Bengals.
Ewers’ assignment will be vastly different this week.
The Bengals have a lousy defense.
According to Sumer Sports, Cincinnati is tied for 30th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (0.14), 30th in EPA allowed per pass (0.21), 29th in EPA allowed per rush (0.07), and 32nd in success rate allowed (48.30%).
The Buccaneers don’t have a stout defense in all facets.
They’re tied for 17th in EPA allowed per play (0.01), tied for 20th in EPA allowed per pass (0.06), tied for fifth in EPA allowed per rush (-0.07), and 21st in success rate allowed (44.99%).
Tampa Bay’s defense is below average against the pass but better than Cincinnati’s, and their defense is a top-10 unit against the run, which will make it difficult for the Dolphins to pivot to a run-heavy approach with De’Von Achane to protect Ewers.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Dolphins were tied for 27th in pass rate over expectations (-13.7% PROE) in Week 16.
The Buccaneers have faced the third-highest PROE (+4.2%) this season and are tied for the fourth-highest PROE (+4.9%) faced since Week 12.
Whether the Dolphins stubbornly run against a stout pass-funnel defense or ask more from Ewers, they’ll likely have difficulty scoring points.
Moreover, Ewers should get ready for a blitz-heavy defense after facing the polar opposite last week.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Bengals are dead last in blitz rate (17.1%) this year, and the Buccaneers are fifth in blitz rate (29.6%).
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Ewers has only 8 dropbacks against the blitz this year, and he completed 4 of 6 passes for 71 yards.
However, Ewers was also sacked twice (25%) on those dropbacks against the blitz.
Ewers’ 2024 numbers against the blitz in his final collegiate season weren’t particularly impressive, either.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), 94 FBS quarterbacks had at least 75 blitzed dropbacks in 2024, and Ewers was 34th in their passing grade (72.9), 57th in turnover-worthy play rate (3.3 TWP%), and tied for 66th in pressure-to-sack rate (22.5 P2S%).
After a Charmin-soft greeting to the NFL in Week 16, Todd Bowles will crank up the degree of difficulty for Ewers this week.
Finally, according to StatHead, Bowles has faced 20 starting rookie quarterbacks as Tampa Bay’s defensive coordinator or head coach since 2019, and he’s gone 12-8, holding seven of those 12 losing opponents under 20 points.
The favored and desperate Buccaneers should hold Ewers and the Dolphins under 19.5 points on Sunday.
Week 17 Best Bet Prediction: New Orleans Saints -2.5 (-114)
The scrappy Saints head to Tennessee this weekend on a three-game winning streak, and the Titans just beat the visiting Chiefs last week.
If someone awoke from a coma that started just before Week 1 of the NFL season, they’d likely guess a battle of rookie quarterbacks Cam Ward and Tyler Shough would favor the 2025 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick.
They’d be wrong.
Among 45 quarterbacks with 100 plays this season, Shough is 32nd in EPA per play (-0.04), and Ward is 40th (-0.17).
Obviously, a negative EPA for Shough isn’t a reason for a celebration, but he’s played much better after two relief appearances and his first career start.
In six subsequent starts, he has recorded a 68.9% completion rate, 248 passing yards per game, 7.12 yards per pass attempt, 5.82 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, 6 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and a 92.8 quarterback rating.
He’s played adequately and faces a pass-funnel defense this week.
In fact, the Titans have faced a league-high +6.3% PROE this year and faced the second-highest PROE (+6.6%) since Week 12.
The Saints lost Devin Neal to the injured reserve after Week 15, and Alvin Kamara is trending toward his fifth straight absence.
The Saints had a league-high +16.8% PROE last week, and they’re 10th in PROE (+2.0%) since Week 12.
Being encouraged to pass at the expense of their lousy backfield and rushing attack would be a plus for the Saints.
Shough also has a cushy assignment through the air.
The Titans are tied for 27th in EPA allowed per pass (0.14) this year.
New Orleans should have some success on offense.
Meanwhile, the Titans are 30th in EPA per play (-0.15), 31st in EPA per pass (-0.20), 28th in EPA per rush (-0.07), and 31st in success rate (37.88%).
They don’t have a cupcake to feast on, either.
Instead, the Saints are 10th in EPA allowed per play (-0.05), tied for 11th in EPA allowed per pass (-0.02), fourth in EPA allowed per rush (-0.08), and 11th in success rate allowed (42.07%).
New Orleans has an above-average defense against the run and pass.
So, the Saints have an advantage at quarterback, and their defense is the best unit in this matchup.
They’ve won all three games on their three-game win streak by at least 3 points, and they should extend their winning streak to four games and beat the Titans by at least 3 points.
