Week 2 of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Patriots facing the Dolphins and the Monday night matchup between the Chargers and the Raiders.
Week 2 Prediction: New England Patriots +1.5
The New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins both enter Week 2 licking their wounds after losing in Week 1.
The Patriots lost at home to the cross-country traveling Las Vegas Raiders. Conversely, the Dolphins lost on the road against the Indianapolis Colts.
Without any other context, New England’s loss would be more damning.
However, Miami was the laughingstock of Week 1 after getting boatraced 33-8 in a pitiful showing.
It’s never wise to overreact to a one-week sample.
Still, the Patriots have a revamped roster and new coaching staff, and their margin of loss was just 7 points.
Conversely, the Dolphins have had the same combination of head coach (Mike McDaniel), offensive coordinator (Frank Smith), and quarterback (Tua Tagovailoa) since 2022, and defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver reprised his role after serving in the same position last year.
The offense was stuck in the mud, and the defense made Daniel Jones look like a future Hall of Famer in Week 1.
Again, it’s unwise to overreact to a one-week sample, but Miami’s dud is a culmination of a downward spiral since they went 11-6, with a +105 point differential in 2023.
They made win-now moves for 2023, weren’t rewarded, and slid to 8-9 with a -19 point differential in 2024.
Sure, Tagovailoa played in only 11 games last year, but Miami was an underwhelming 6-5 in his starts.
Moreover, the Dolphins appear to be paying the piper for their win-now moves before the 2023 season, as roster erosion has turned their current depth chart into a train wreck.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranked the Dolphins 20th in pass protection last year, and their top offensive lineman, left tackle Terron Armstead, retired in the offseason.
Miami was ranked 22nd in PFF’s pass-blocking grading in Week 1.
Now, they’ll need to navigate the absence of starting guard James Daniels and the likely absence of starting right tackle Austin Jackson.
In fairness, Daniels played only three offensive snaps in Week 1.
Still, losing 40% of starters along an offensive line would be a challenge for most quarterbacks and offenses to work around, and Miami’s offensive line lacks quality depth since the starters were already lousy.
It’s also especially discouraging for Miami’s offensive outlook since Tagovailoa struggles mightily with pressure.
Among 30 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks against pressure in 2024, Tua had PFF’s 17th-worst passing grade and their third-highest turnover-worthy-play rate (7.5 TWP%).
The lefty’s turnover-worthy-play rate under pressure was lower than only Kirk Cousins’ and Jameis Winston’s marks last season.
Even in Tua’s career year as a passer in 2023, he was just 13th out of 33 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks in PFF’s passing grade against pressure.
New England’s defense isn’t flush with elite pass-rushers.
Nevertheless, their offseason splashes on defensive tackle Milton Williams and edge rusher Harold Landry (who didn't practice on Wednesday but still has two more opportunities to do so) paid immediate dividends in Week 1.
According to PFF, Williams had 2 hits, 2 hurries, and a 22.6% pass-rush win rate on 31 pass-rush snaps in Week 1, and Landry had 4 hurries, 1 hit, and a 17.2% pass-rush win rate.
Moreover, Landry racked up 2.5 sacks against the Raiders. The Patriots should have enough juice on their defense for Mike Vrabel to push the right buttons to get after Tua.
New England’s offense had a lackluster showing in Week 1.
However, Miami’s pitiful defense is precisely the elixir they need to turn things around in Week 2.
PFF graded the Dolphins dead last in pass rush and 27th in coverage in Week 1, and their secondary will likely be without arguably their best cornerback.
Storm Duck has an ankle injury that’s expected to sideline him this week.
Frankly, the dysfunctional and spiraling Dolphins shouldn’t be laying points to anyone.
I’ll take the 1.5 points with the Patriots offered at FanDuel Sportsbook, which is better than the 0.5-point and 1.0-point options available at other sportsbooks.
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Week 2 Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers Team Total Over 24.5 Points
Don’t look now, but the Chargers have a fun offense. Maybe an old dog can be taught new tricks.
As I wrote about when suggesting futures for Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns earlier this week, Greg Roman isn’t calling an offense befitting leather helmets. Instead, Roman has let Herbert cook.
According to nfelo, Los Angeles’ 15.2% pass rate over expectations (PROE) in Week 1 was the highest in the NFL.
Furthermore, before chalking last week up as a blip on the radar or opponent-driven game plan, a look back at how last year progressed reveals that Roman already opened up the passing attack in 2024.
Per RotoViz’s pace app, the Chargers had a 48% situation-neutral pass rate before their Week 5 bye.
From Week 6 through the Super Bowl, their 59% situation-neutral pass rate was tied for the fourth-highest mark.
The Chargers aren’t the only pass-happy team in this contest, either.
Instead, Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly let Geno Smith chuck the pigskin.
The Raiders had the third-highest PROE (9.5%) in Week 1. Their offensive tendencies in Week 1, as well as Los Angeles’ dating back to after their bye in Week 5 of the 2024 season, should create a scoring-friendly environment.
I also love Herbert’s odds of carving up defensive coordinator Patrick Graham’s defense on Monday Night Football.
Graham was the defensive coordinator for the Giants in 2020 and 2021, and he’s been the defensive coordinator for the Raiders since 2022.
According to StatHead, Herbert lit up the Giants for 275 passing yards, 10.03 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), and 3 passing touchdowns in 2021, hanging 37 points on the G-Men.
In Herbert’s five meetings against the Graham-coached Raiders defenses from 2022 through 2024, Herbert completed 67.1% of his 167 pass attempts for 1,271 yards (254.2 per game), 7.58 ANY/A, 8 passing touchdowns, and only 1 interception.
Herbert also had only a 5.11% sack rate against the Raiders in those five starts.
To add context to those marks, Herbert’s 7.58 ANY/A would have ranked 14th among qualified quarterbacks in 2024, better than the league average of 7.06 ANY/A, per Pro Football Reference.
Herbert’s 5.11% sack rate against the Graham-coached Raiders would have been the 12th-lowest mark among all qualified quarterbacks last season.
This version of the Raiders has a suspect secondary for Herbert to pick apart.
Las Vegas had PFF’s 23rd-ranked coverage grade in Week 1.
The coverage aligns with PFF’s expectations for the Raiders’ secondary entering this season. PFF’s John Kosko ranked Las Vegas’ secondary dead last entering the year.
The final game of Week 1 could produce fireworks, and I at least expect the Chargers to hold up their end of the bargain and score more than 24.5 points on Monday night.
