We mentioned last week that running back volume had decreased in comparison to last season.
However, Week 3 saw teams average 21.8 running back carries per game, up from 20.2 and 20.1 in the previous weeks.
Positive touchdown regression also struck, as running backs scored 27 rushing touchdowns in Week 3, a significant increase over the 17 and 16 touchdowns scored in the opening weeks.
David Montgomery led all running backs with 151 yards on 12 carries against the Ravens defense, which has now allowed the leading passer in Week 1 and the leading rusher in Week 3.
It should be noted that the Ravens offense scored 40 points and 30 points in Weeks 1 and 3, creating a shootout environment for the opposing offense.
The rookie running back class has underwhelmed in terms of the gigantic expectations of the fantasy football community.
However, Week 4 offers a chance to buy some stock of the young running backs before the price rises.
NFL Weekly Rushing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Running Back | Rushing Yards | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Henry | 169 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Jonathan Taylor | 165 | Denver Broncos |
| 3 | David Montgomery | 151 | Baltimore Ravens |
Most Week 4 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Omarion Hampton (+2200)
The undefeated Chargers travel to face a winless Giants squad as 6-point favorites.
This game is a mismatch in multiple aspects as Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert face off against Brian Daboll and Jaxson Dart.
Omarion Hampton has gotten off to a slow start in terms of rushing production, but this provides a solid buy-low spot for the rookie running back.
Hampton enters the game as the only running back on the roster with a carry this season and will be backed up by Hassan Haskins.
I’m leaning on Hampton to have a Jonathan Taylor-esque backfield share of the carries against a porous Giants run defense.
Hampton has averaged 2.6, 3.25, and 3.0 yards after contact in each of his three starts, as the majority of the problem is that he is being met behind or near the line of scrimmage.
As per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Hampton has rushed for expected yardage on 42.9% of his attempts, providing evidence that the run game struggles are not all on the running back.
The Giants defensive line could provide a better baseline for Hampton.
Coupled with sheer volume, it creates an opportunity for Hampton to break out in terms of rushing statistics.
The Giants rank 26th and 30th in EPA per rush and success rate, and they allow 1.6 yards before contact on running back rush attempts.
In each of the first three games against the Giants, opposing running backs have had at least 20 carries and have averaged 5.2 yards per carry.
The Chargers have leaned on Herbert early in the season, but those were three division games in which all three closing lines were within a field goal.
As a large favorite against a quarterback making his first start, it wouldn’t be a shock if Hampton leads all running backs in carries on Sunday.
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Week 4 Rushing Yards Longshot Bet: TreVeyon Henderson
- Longest Rush Over 11.5 (-115)
- Anytime Touchdown (+160)
- 2+ Touchdowns (+1100)
- Most Sunday Rushing Yards (+7500)
Mike Vrabel has made Henderson earn his role, as Henderson had 10 total carries before halftime in Week 3.
After Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson combined for 3 fumbles on Sunday, Henderson had all 9 running back carries.
Whether this trend continues has yet to be determined, but as we saw in preseason, Henderson is a home run threat when he is given touches.
Enter the Carolina Panther run defense, or lack thereof, which has picked up where it left off last year as one of the league’s worst units.
The Panthers have allowed a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs, including a 71-yard run to Travis Etienne in Week 1, who profiles similarly to Henderson.
According to Sumer Sports, the Patriots offense has faced the lowest rate of light boxes, which could change should the Patriots lean more towards the pass early in the game, creating an opportunity for Henderson to rack up some yards on a big play.
It is difficult to predict the running back usage for the Patriots.
However, I’d rather be a bit early on betting a player than chasing a big box score game.
With a potential increase in opportunity, paired with the Panthers' inability to stop the run, Henderson has an opportunity to make the Sunday evening highlight reel similarly to his first NFL preseason touch, which he housed for a kickoff return touchdown.
