There has been a steady increase in running back carries per game every week this season.
Last week, each team averaged 22.4 running back attempts, which has now increased by more than 2 attempts per team since the opening week of the season.
With the added volume, production has increased.
Running backs averaged 102.7 rushing yards per team after averaging 78.8, 87.7, and 91 rushing yards per game in the opening weeks.
Even with last week's surge, production is still below where running backs were at this point of the season last year.
The biggest difference year over year is that last season running backs averaged 1.39 yards before contact compared to 1.19 yards before contact, which is a 14% decrease.
Last week, the article called for rookie running back breakouts, except it didn’t mention Ashton Jeanty, who finished the Week as the weekly rushing leader.
Omarian Hampton finished second.
NFL Weekly Rushing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Running Back | Rushing Yards | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Henry | 169 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Jonathan Taylor | 165 | Denver Broncos |
| 3 | David Montgomery | 151 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 4 | Ashton Jeanty | 138 | Chicago Bears |
Most Week 5 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): De’Von Achane (+2000)
There has been so much noise surrounding Mike McDaniel, Tua Tagovailoa, and Tyreek Hill that the success of the rushing game compared to last year has flown under the radar.
Last season, the Dolphins were 31st in EPA per rush, but that has improved to eighth this season.
Achane has improved his yards per carry from 4.4 to 4.9 and increased his rushes for 10 or more yards from 10.3% to 14% while decreasing his gains of 0 or fewer yards from 24.1% to 20%.
What is particularly intriguing in this matchup is the fact that the Panthers rank first in DVOA on passes to running backs but rank 26th in outside rush EPA, which may limit Achane in the passing game but improve his efficiency in the running game.
The Panthers rush defense looks improved over last year.
However, that is a function of playing the Cardinals and Patriots, who are 30th and 31st in rush success rate.
Despite the absolute softball of a rushing schedule, the Panthers defense ranks 26th in explosive rush rate allowed, which increases the odds of Achane creating a few explosive plays.
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Week 5 Rushing Yards Longshot Bet: Rachaad White, Saquon Barkley, and Breece Hall each to have 30+ Receiving Yards (+1685)
In week 4 running back target share hit 19.2% leaguewide as teams are struggling to pass protect with a league wide offensive injury epidemic. Rachaad White has multiple angles working in his favor for receiving work this week as Bucky Irving is sidelined and the Seattle Seahawks allow a league high 7.3 receptions and 66.5 receiving yards to running backs per game. Breece Hall is no longer required to exit the field for Braelon Allen and is second on the Jets in targets despite only being on the field for 43.8% of the Jets drop backs. The Broncos are 30th in DVOA to running back targets allowing a league high 11.3 yards per target and 14.2 yards after the catch to running back targets.
