The article hit on Justin Herbert last week as he passed for a career-high 420 yards against the Colts.
It wasn’t roses for every team, though, as the Las Vegas Raiders set a low mark on the season, registering 75 passing yards.
League-wide passing saw a small uptick in passing yards per team from Week 6, and four quarterbacks reached 300 passing yards.
One quarterback who stood out was Matthew Stafford, as he didn’t reach 200 passing yards but tallied 5 passing touchdowns.
Stafford is a great example for the theory that close games matter for stacking yardage.
The Rams were up 21-0 at halftime and didn’t need to keep the foot on the accelerator.
Through seven weeks of the season, five of the weekly touchdown leaders have been involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and the other two quarterbacks were trailing for the entire second half of the game.
Game state continues to be very important as teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.
In DFS and betting passing/receiving overs, focus on games that are likely to remain competitive.
Also, if an efficient passing team falls behind early, it provides an opportunity for live bets on passing overs (there is a caveat to this, as the team needs to be able to stop the run on defense).
NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Quarterback | Passing Yards | Opponent | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | 394 | Baltimore Ravens | 41-40 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | 450 | Dallas Cowboys | 37-40 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | 300 | Denver Broncos | 23-20 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | 375 | Indianapolis Colts | 27-20 |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | 389 | San Francisco 49ers | 23-26 |
| 6 | Mac Jones | 347 | Tampa Bay Bucs | 19-30 |
| 7 | Justin Herbert | 420 | Indianapolis Colts | 24-38 |
Most Week 8 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Jordan Love (+1000)
Love’s season has flown under the radar for numerous reasons, but the Packers boast a passing attack that is second in EPA per dropback.
Love's completion rate is 6.9% over expected, but he has finished below 30 pass attempts in four of his six games this season.
The offensive line appears to be at full health, and Josh Jacobs has a lingering injury, which could provide a runway for Love against the Steelers.
A Sunday Night Football matchup against Aaron Rodgers provides a great narrative, and it is highly unlikely that either quarterback wants to be handing the ball off in this matchup.
The Steelers are 27th in EPA per dropback on deep passes, and Love started the season averaging 11.5 and 13.2 air yards per attempt, which has dropped significantly over the past month.
It is in the range of outcomes that Love leans on his deep passing game this week.
The Steelers are coming off a loss to the Bengals, and there is a possibility that the Packers build an early lead, but Rodgers will be motivated in a game against Love, so I do anticipate potential pushback from the Steelers.
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Week 8 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Cam Ward Passing Ladders
- Over 204.5 Passing Yards (-112)
- 250+ Passing Yards (+262)
- 270+ Passing Yards (+424)
- 300+ Passing Yards (+870)
Ward is averaging 6.7 yards per attempt on first down, which drops to 4.5 and 5.5 on second and third down.
That is significant since the Titans started 17 drives with a pass compared to only 8 with a run against the Patriots in Week 7.
The drives that started with a pass reached a new set of downs or scored a touchdown 82.4% of the time, and drives that started with a rush converted a first down or touchdown 25% of the time.
The Titans trailed early but threw the ball 4% above expectation on first down in Week 7, which could help Ward improve passing efficiency and reduce the number of sacks he takes.
The Titans are two-touchdown underdogs to the Colts on Sunday, and without two of their best defensive players, the Colts are tied at the top of the league in first half scoring, averaging 18.1 points per game.
Ward is going to have to do his best to keep up with the Colts.
The Titans offense ranks ninth in deep pass EPA per play, whereas the Colts defense is trending in the wrong direction, ranking 21st in EPA per play on passes traveling more than 20 yards downfield.
Ward has averaged 37 pass attempts and 247 passing yards over the past three weeks and could be in line for his best performance in terms of yards against a Colts secondary that is missing a few key players.
