Week 8 of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Broncos against the Cowboys and the Falcons facing the Dolphins.
Week 8 Best Bet Prediction: Broncos -3.5
The Broncos mounted a furious comeback against the Giants last week, getting shut out through three quarters and trailing the G-Men 19-0 before scoring an eye-popping 33 points in the fourth quarter.
Viewers were treated to the full Bo Nix experience.
Fortunately, Nix and Denver’s offense have a golden opportunity to build on their explosive fourth quarter in a cupcake matchup against Dallas’s dreadful defense.
According to Sumer Sports, the Cowboys are 29th in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed (0.13) and 31st in success rate allowed (49.14%).
The Broncos don’t have a juggernaut offense.
Nevertheless, it’s above average, ranking tied for ninth in EPA per play (0.04).
It’s also a versatile offense, capable of moving the ball through the air via Nix to Courtland Sutton and a mix of ancillary pieces or on the ground with Nix’s legs, J.K. Dobbins, or a sprinkling of RJ Harvey.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades the Broncos first in pass blocking and 12th in run blocking.
So, in addition to their stellar EPA ranks on offense, their offensive line is passing PFF’s film-grading test.
The Cowboys have an even more potent offense than the Broncos. Yet, Dallas’ high-flying offense is saddled by a dreadful defense.
Meanwhile, Denver’s above-average offense is the B-side of their offensive and defensive units.
The Broncos are tied for second in EPA per play allowed (-0.10) and first in success rate allowed (35.68%).
The Broncos have more paths to victory than the imbalanced Cowboys.
Moreover, Nix’s and Dak Prescott’s home and road splits are a critical consideration.
According to Pro Football Reference, Nix is 9-2 at home with a 95.0 quarterback rating versus 6-7 with an 88.2 quarterback rating on the road.
Per StatHead, last week’s 1-point victory against the Giants was Nix’s only win at home by fewer than 8 points.
Prescott is a fire-breathing giant at home and less imposing, albeit still stellar, on the road.
Since 2023, he’s tallied a 106.3 quarterback rating at home in 15 games versus a 95.2 quarterback rating in 18 games on the road.
Prescott and the Cowboys were only 8-10 in Prescott’s 18 road starts since 2023.
Ultimately, the well-rounded Broncos and their second-year quarterback should take advantage of playing at home and beat the Cowboys by more than 3.5 points on Sunday, and the -102 line offered at BetMGM Sportsbook is the most appealing line across sportsbooks.
Week 8 Best Bet Prediction: Falcons Over 26.5 Points
The home and road splits were a meaningful consideration for the previous betting consideration, and while the sample is small, Michael Penix’s home and road splits are night and day.
The second-year southpaw has a vomit-inducing 67.8 quarterback rating, 54.48% completion rate, and 159.0 passing yards per game in five career road starts.
However, Penix has a 95.2 quarterback rating, 64.46% completion rate, and 231.5 passing yards per game in six career starts at home.
The Falcons scored 14, 20, 24, 34, 34, and 38 points in Penix’s home starts, for an average of 27.3 points per game and a median of 29.0.
In Penix’s three wins at home, the Falcons scored 24, 34, and 34 points.
Unfortunately, Penix is nursing a bone bruise in his left knee.
The Falcons held a walkthrough yesterday, but he was estimated as a limited participant.
If Penix suffers a setback or is ineffective while playing through the knee injury, Kirk Cousins is at least a competent backup.
Either Penix or Cousins will have an easy assignment against the Dolphins.
Miami is tied for the most EPA per pass allowed (0.22) this season.
Still, neither quarterback might be needed much against the Dolphins.
Miami is tied for the second-most EPA per rush allowed (0.09) this season.
They’ve been steamrolled on the ground lately.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Dolphins have coughed up the most rushing yards per game (170.0) at a blistering 5.76 yards per carry since Week 4.
The Falcons have the horses to cream the Dolphins on the ground.
Per the Fantasy Points data suite, among 42 running backs with at least 40 rush attempts this year, Bijan Robinson is third in rushing yards per game (87.3), second in yards per carry (5.40), second in yards after contact per attempt (3.42), 10th in explosive run rate (6.2%), and 12th in success rate (54.6%).
Tyler Allgeier was listed as a limited practice participant on Wednesday’s injury report.
Assuming he plays, Allgeier is also a handful for Miami’s run defense.
He’s fifth in explosive run rate (7.0%) and 22nd in success rate (49.1%).
The Dolphins have surrendered 29.3 points per game this season.
The Jets are Miami’s only opponent that scored fewer than 27 points this year, scoring 21.
Gang Green is the NFL’s only remaining winless team.
The Falcons don’t even need to play their “A” game to exceed 26.5 points against the Dolphins.
Finally, even if Atlanta races out to a lead and takes the air out of the ball to salt the game away, they can continue to score points against Miami’s non-existent run defense.
So, eating the slightly chalky line of -122 at DraftKings Sportsbook for the Falcons over 26.5 points is compelling, and the line is actually somewhat less chalky than elsewhere.
