In tracking weekly rushing leaders throughout the season, there was one constant.
Spike rushing weeks are usually attached to the running back on the winning team.
This season, 18 of the top 20 single-game rushing performances came from a running back on the winning team
The 2 that did not came from the Patriots and Ravens in fourth quarter, Josh Allen-led comebacks.
Volume remains essential in identifying running back spike weeks.
This season, there were 17 instances of a running back gaining 150 or more rushing yards.
Those running backs averaged 21.8 carries in those games, and every running back had at least 12 carries.
| Wild Card Round NFL Odds |
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| NFL Passing Leader Odds |
| NFL Receiving Leader Odds |
| NFL Rushing Leader Odds |
Last season in Wild Card Weekend, four running backs rushed for 100 yards.
All four were on the winning team, and all four had at least 23 carries.
The safest way to select a rushing spike week is through predicting volume, which is correlated with leading.
The Rams are the largest favorite of the week, but Kyren Williams and Blake Corum have become a split backfield.
Since Week 6, Williams has handled 57.7% of the running back carries, and Corum has handled 39.4%.
NFL Weekly Rushing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Running Back | Rushing Yards | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Henry | 169 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Jonathan Taylor | 165 | Denver Broncos |
| 3 | David Montgomery | 151 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 4 | Ashton Jeanty | 138 | Chicago Bears |
| 5 | Rico Dowdle | 206 | Miami Dolphins |
| 6 | Rico Dowdle | 183 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 7 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 136 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 8 | James Cook | 216 | Carolina Panthers |
| 9 | Kyle Monangai | 176 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 10 | Jonathan Taylor | 244 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 11 | De'Von Achane | 120 | Washington Commanders |
| 12 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 219 | New York Giants |
| 13 | James Cook | 144 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 14 | Tony Pollard | 161 | Cleveland Browns |
| 15 | TreVeyon Henderson | 148 | Buffalo Bills |
| 16 | Jaylen Warren | 143 | Detroit Lions |
| 17 | Derrick Henry | 216 | Green Bay Packers |
| 18 | Ray Davis | 151 | New York Jets |
Most Wild Card Round Rushing Yards Prediction: Saquon Barkley (+425)
The Eagles enter the weekend as the second-largest favorite and are playing at home to open the playoffs.
Last season, Barkley averaged 21.5 rush attempts per game in the regular season and hit 25 rush attempts in 75% of the playoff games en route to the Eagles' Super Bowl Victory.
Barkley averaged 17.5 attempts per game this season, but the 49ers present a great opportunity for the Eagles to lean on the star running back.
Working in the Eagles' favor is the return of Lane Johnson for the playoffs.
Barkley has averaged 1.97 yards before contact with Johnson on the field compared to 0.88 yards before contact without Johnson this season.
In Eagles wins this season, Barkley had at least 18 rush attempts in every game except the Giants game, in which he left early with an injury.
The Eagles are more than happy to slow the game down and lean on the run if out ahead, which could propel Barkley to the necessary volume to lead all running backs in yards this week.
In Week 18, the 49ers defense faced 33 rush attempts from running backs in a trailing game script.
Should the Eagles build an early lead, a similar game plan could occur.
As a home favorite against a depleted defense, Barkley is the rushing yards favorite for good reason this weekend.
He should have plenty of volume and has explosive play potential.
Wild Card Round Running Back Longshot Bet: Quarterback Rushing Parlay (+895)
- Brock Purdy 25+ Rushing Yards
- Justin Herbert 20+ Rushing Yards
- Drake Maye 20+ Rushing Yards
- Josh Allen 20+ Rushing Yards
- Trevor Lawrence 20+ Rushing Yards
Inspired by Rich Hribar, Sunday’s quarterbacks all have averaged more than 24 rushing yards per game in the final portion of the season since Week 14.
I am leaving Jalen Hurts out of the parlay because, believe it or not, he averaged the lowest rushing yards per game of the six starting quarterbacks on Sunday over the final five weeks.
There is also a scenario in which the Eagles don’t need to use Hurt’s legs, as the offense matches very well against a depleted 49ers defense.
In a win-or-go-home situation, quarterbacks are more likely to risk taking a hit to gain extra yards.
Last season’s Wild Card games saw seven of the 12 starting quarterbacks reach at least 20 rushing yards.
