Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets: Super Bowl 58 Analysis & Breakdown

While the fantasy element of the Super Bowl is limited, the most available betting angles to take on the big game are in player props.

We will be breaking down those props for every notable player in Super Bowl 58 with career performance trends along with our favorite bet for each player. 

These are current lines from BetMGM Sportsbook. Shop around for the best lines and numbers while staying up to date on the latest odds.

Visit our prop bet tracker for updated lines for every notable player in Super Bowl 58.

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Chiefs vs. 49ers covered in our Super Bowl 58 Hub.

Best Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl 58 Prop Bet:

Under 25.5 passing completions

Mahomes is coming off two hyper-efficient passing games, and it appears those results have inflated this line. Given the total set for pass attempts, this line suggests Mahomes will need a 70% completion rate to go over this total. That can certainly happen — he has completed 75.8% of his passes the last two weeks with a relatively shallow depth of target — but the under comes with two outs. First, Mahomes is closer to the 67% completion rate he had in the regular season. Second, the Chiefs focus on running the ball against the 49ers’ weaker run defense, limiting Mahomes’ attempts.

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop Bet

Current Line: 262.5 Passing Yards — Over (-115) /Under (-115) 

Opening Line: 260.5 Passing Yards — Over (-115) /Under (-115) 

  • Career Game % Over Opening Line: 65.5%
  • 2023 % Over Opening Line: 43.4%

» Bet it now

Don’t miss out on our Super Bowl recommendations

As a THANK YOU for following us throughout the season, we wanted to offer you an option to save and get on board for our Super Bowl betting recommendations:

Hurry! This sale ends soon, AND EVEN SOONER we’ll be releasing written game previews, Super Bowl bets, and props.

This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot late in the season:

  • Final 11 weeks in NFL: 58-32 (64%)
  • Final 2023 Profits: $100 Bettors finished up $8,148
  • Final 2023 Elevated Plays Record: 102-64 (61%)
  • Final 2023 1+ Unit Plays Record: 27-11 (71%)
  • Final 2023 NFL Regular Season: 83-56 (59%)
  • Final 2023 NFL Computer Totals: 38-23 (62%)
  • Final 2023 NCAAF Bowls: 9-1 (90%)

Historically, we’ve been outstanding in the Super Bowl:

  • 26-10 (72%) lifetime Super Bowl Sides/Totals record
  • 2-0 (100%) on 2023 Super Bowl Elevated Plays

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Patrick Mahomes Touchdown Passing Prop Bet

Current Line: 1.5 Touchdown Passes — Over (-160)/Under (+120) 

Opening Line: 1.5 Touchdown Passes — Over (-135)/Under (+100) 

  • Career Game % Over Opening Line: 69.9%
  • 2023 % Over Opening Line: 52.6%

» Bet it now

Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Prop Bet

Current Line: 0.5 Interceptions — Over (+100)/Under (-135) 

Opening Line: 0.5 Interceptions — Over (-125)/Under (-105) 

  • Career Game % Over Opening Line: 46.0%
  • 2023 % Over Opening Line: 57.9%

» Bet it now

Patrick Mahomes Passing Attempts Prop Bet

Current Line: 36.5 Passing Attempts — Over (-120)/Under (-110) 

Opening Line: 36.5 Passing Attempts — Over (-130)/Under (-105) 

  • Career Game % Over Opening Line: 54.9%
  • 2023 % Over Opening Line: 63.2%

» Bet it now

Patrick Mahomes Passing Completions Prop Bet

Current Line: 25.5 Passing Completions — Over (-105)/Under (-125) 

Opening Line: 25.5 Passing Completions — Over (-115)/Under (-115) 

  • Career Game % Over Opening Line: 43.4%
  • 2023 % Over Opening Line: 42.1%

» Bet it now

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop Bet

Current Line: 26.5 Rushing Yards — Over (-125)/Under (-105) 

Opening Line: 25.5 Rushing Yards — Over (-115)/Under (-115) 

  • Career Game % Over Opening Line: 39.8%
  • 2023 % Over Opening Line: 52.6%

» Bet it now


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