We cashed in another winning week in the divisional round, and we’re back with three more prop lines to take advantage of this weekend…
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR C.J. UZOMAH RECEIVING YARDS
- Recent usage spike
- High expected point total
- SIS Projection: 48 receiving yards
The Bengals are one win away from an improbable Super Bowl appearance and will travel to Kansas City for a rematch with a Chiefs team that they beat earlier this month.
- 34.5 receiving yards on BetMGM (-115)
C.J. Uzomah has had a key role in the Bengals’ offensive success down the stretch, averaging 6.2 targets and 44 yards per game since Week 15 after 3.5 targets and 31 yards per game pace in the weeks prior.
Last week, Uzomah followed up a 64-yard performance in the Wild Card round with 71 yards, his third-highest output of the season. The Bengals’ tight end has finished second on the team in target share in each of their two playoff wins.
Bengals Receiving Target Share (since Week 15*)
| PLAYER | TARGET SHARE |
|---|---|
| Ja’Marr Chase | 28% |
| Tee Higgins | 20% |
| C.J. Uzomah | 19% |
*Only includes games in which the receiver played
The Chiefs appear that they’ll have the fortune of getting safety Tyrann Mathieu back from last week’s concussion. Regardless, Uzomah’s recent usage, the high projected score total (54.5), and the SIS projections all align to suggest Uzomah will come in comfortably above the yardage mark needed to cash the bet.
Additional tips: Joe Burrow clearly has confidence in his tight end, and he’ll likely be leaning on his most trusted weapons on the biggest stage of his pro career. This number is already up from 33.5, which is a good sign, but also a sign you should lock it in as early as possible. Feel comfortable playing the number up to 37.5.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR VAN JEFFERSON LONG RECEPTION
- Jefferson’s track record
- 49ers weakness in the secondary
- Key Rams passing tendency
In order for the Rams to book their place in the Super Bowl, they’ll need to break their six game losing streak against the 49ers. Cooper Kupp went over 110 receiving yards in both of their head-to-head losses this season, but Van Jefferson also added a long reception in each game.
- 17.5 long reception on BetMGM (-110)
Van Jefferson’s big play ability hasn’t been limited to games against the 49ers. The Rams’ third-receiver has hauled in a reception of 18+ yards in 16-of-19 games this season, which converts to an 84% win rate against this week’s long reception prop line.
Jefferson’s target volume has ticked down as Odell Beckham Jr.’s role has increased, but the sophomore is still on the field running routes on almost all of the Rams’ passing plays. Jefferson runs the most intermediate and deep routes on the team, and while they’re often used to clear space for his teammates, it only takes one target to win this prop.
Rams WR routes run on Go/Fly, Corner, Post, and Fade routes
| PLAYER | ROUTES RUN | NFL RANK |
|---|---|---|
| Van Jefferson | 163 | 13th |
| Odell Beckham Jr | 119 | 37th |
| Cooper Kupp | 72 | 77th |
Jefferson’s usage aligns with the biggest weakness of the 49ers pass defense. San Francisco has given up the league’s highest success rate on intermediate throws this season (66%), and Los Angeles has targeted that depth at the second-highest rate in the league (23%).
San Francisco’s heavy reliance on zone coverage (75%) is another factor in Jefferson’s favor. Jefferson ranks second on the Rams with 2.0 yards per route run against zone coverage, which is significantly higher than his 0.6 YPRR against man.
Additional tips: Don’t expect to see Jefferson on the receiving end of a ton of passes, but he’s averaging 3.3 targets/game over the last six weeks and it only takes one for a player with his downfield usage to cash in. We wouldn’t expect the prop number to move up, but play it up to 18.5 if it does. We’re more likely to see the odds move, and we’d recommend playing them to -120.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR JIMMY GAROPPOLO INTERCEPTIONS
- Garoppolo’s track record
- Rams strengths and scheme
- SIS Projection: 1 interception
The 49ers have come through with two road playoff victories despite less-than-stellar QB play. This week they’ll look to punch their Super Bowl ticket and finish off a 3-0 season sweep of the division-rival Rams.
- 0.5 interceptions on BetMGM (-150)
As we alluded to in the intro, Jimmy Garoppolo has not played his best football so far this postseason. The 49ers have managed to make it through two rounds without a passing TD and just two total offensive touchdowns.
Garoppolo has thrown an INT in both playoff games and six of his last eight games dating back to Week 12. Meanwhile, the Rams defense has intercepted a pass in every game over that same eight-game period.
Two of the most prominent features of the Rams defense are their ability to generate pressure (36%, 4th-most) and their abundant usage of zone coverage (82%, 2nd-most).
Garoppolo’s 88% on-target throw rate on passes from a clean pocket ranks second in the league, but that rate slides way down to 55% on pressured attempts.
Taking an even more granular look at the Rams zone defense shows that they’ve seen the league’s most pass attempts in Cover 4 and the third most in Cover 3. Jimmy Garoppolo interestingly ranks first in both yards per attempt (9.8) and interception rate (6%) against those two coverage types.
Highest INT Rate vs Cover 3 & Cover 4 (2021)
| PLAYER | INT RATE |
|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 6% |
| Zach Wilson | 4% |
| Matthew Stafford | 4% |
This season, 20 QBs have more pass attempts than Garoppolo against Cover 3 and Cover 4, but nobody has been picked off more than Jimmy G (11 INTs).
Additional tips: The -150 line is a premium but the number, along with its 60% implied probability, is still a bit too low. We highlighted several factors working against Garoppolo but didn’t even get into his thumb and shoulder injuries. If the line moves up, we’d advise playing it up to -160.
