We’re back with three more data-driven prop betting recommendations for Week 4. Here are the top opportunities to take advantage of this weekend.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR JACOBY BRISSETT PASS COMPLETIONS IN WEEK 4
- Dolphins high pass rate
- Colts allowing high success rate against
- Colts defensive scheme
The Dolphins won their season opener with a one-point victory but dropped their next two games. Meanwhile, the Colts are winless against three quality opponents. It’s far from the most intriguing game on this weekend’s schedule but signs point to an opportunity for bettors to cash in.
- 18.5 pass completions on BetMGM (-125)
Miami has been the fourth most pass-heavy offense in the league through three weeks (70% pass). It’s true that the Dolphins have spent significant time playing catch-up this season, but their neutral pass rate also ranks inside the top-10 (67%). Jacoby Brissett completed 32 passes on 49 attempts last week – if you remove overtime, he was 28-for-40.
The Colts’ defensive struggles also help boost the outlook of Miami’s high-volume passing attack. Indianapolis ranks last in opponent pass success rate (56%) and 29th in deserved catch rate allowed (92%). This pass defense has allowed their opponents to cross the 19-completion threshold in all three games this season and 18-of-20 games dating back to last season.
Defensive scheme is a big part of why the Colts defense is able to maintain respectable standing in yards and points allowed while allowing a high success rate. Now in their fourth season under defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, the Colts have developed a reputation as a zone-heavy unit. Dating back to last season, the Colts rank third in zone coverage usage (79%).
SIS data shows that quarterbacks complete a higher percentage of passes against zone than man coverage (67% to 57%, respectively, since 2020).
Highest Zone Coverage Rate (2020-21)
|TEAM||ZONE COVERAGE RATE|
Additional tips: Feel comfortable taking this line up to 19.5 completions (-125). Betting the over on the game total is also an intriguing play. It’s one of the lowest totals on the board, listed at 42 on BetMGM, and while these teams haven’t been hanging big totals, their defenses have allowed a combined average of 28 points per game.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET UNDER THE LONGEST PASS COMPLETION FOR DAVIS MILLS IN WEEK 4
- Bills defense limits deep passing
- Conservative passing
- Weather concerns
We’re going back to the well after hitting on the under with this bet in Week 1 when Buffalo held Ben Roethlisberger to a long completion of 24 yards. Davis Mills managed to maintain his dignity despite losing his NFL debut last week. The task will be even harder this weekend as Mills travels to Buffalo for his first road game as a starter.
- 33.5 yard longest pass completion on BetMGM (-115)
In our Week 1 breakdown, we cited that teams didn’t challenge the Bills deep last season – only 38 attempts, accounting for just 7% of their opponent’s passes. That trend has carried over into the 2021 season with Buffalo allowing zero deep ball completions on a league-low three deep ball attempts.
The Bills have held their opponents under their long completion prop in 2-of-3 games this season. Taylor Heineke and Antonio Gibson victimized Buffalo for a 73-yard touchdown last week that was completed behind the line of scrimmage. Fortunately, the Texans rank 27th in Yards After Catch and don’t have a player inside the top-75 in YAC.
Davis Mills hasn’t been especially shy with his first 46 NFL passes traveling an average distance of 9.3 yards. However, he’s favored intermediate passes over deep balls, with just four passes traveling 20+ air yards.
His college career at Stanford also shows an aversion to attacking deep, and less than half of his deep ball attempts were on target.
20+ Air Yard Throw Rate of Rookie QBs (NCAA, 2020-21)
|PLAYER||DEEP BALL RATE|
The Texans are expected to struggle mightily, with sportsbooks making them a season-high 17-point underdog. BetMGM set low passing props across the board for Mills—206.5 passing yards and 18.5 completions—which implies little opportunity for the rookie QB to do any major damage.
If you weren’t already convinced, the weather in Buffalo looks ominous for Sunday. Forecasts call for a 90% chance of rain and 10-15 MPH winds.
Additional tips: This line may drop as word gets out about the weather, but don’t shy away unless it plummets below 30.5. With bad weather and an expected blowout, consider other prop bets that fit this narrative: Josh Allen under 36.5 pass attempts and Devin Singletary over 46.5 rushing yards stand out.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR MATT RYAN PASSING TOUCHDOWNS IN WEEK 4
- Vegas implied total
- Pass heavy around the endzone
- Betting on Matt Ryan to rebound
The Falcons have played an ugly brand of football in 2021. After losing all their preseason games, Atlanta has posted the second-worst point differential (-46), but was fortunate to scratch out an ugly win against the Giants last week. The Falcons return home this Sunday to face a struggling Washington defense, whose lone win has also come against the Giants.
- 1.5 passing touchdowns on BetMGM (-115)
Matt Ryan has been a shadow of his former self this season, inexcusably ranking last among qualified QBs in Average Throw Depth (4.4 yards) and On-Target Throw Rate (68.2%). Ryan has a long track record of success so there are worse ideas than betting on some positive regression from the 4-time Pro Bowler.
Say what you want about Ryan and the Falcons, the numbers here point to an edge on the over for this prop bet.
BetMGM has assigned a 47.5 points total, putting it in the top-half of highest expected scores this week, and giving the Falcons an implied score of 23.5. Through three weeks, Atlanta has been the most pass-heavy team near the endzone: 13 dropbacks to four rushes inside the 10-yard-line. Considering this ratio relative to the implied total score, it makes sense to bet on Ryan to find the end zone multiple times.
We mentioned the struggles of Washington’s defense that was expected to be among the league’s top units. It’s possible they, too, are in line for positive regression but WFT has surrendered 31 points per game and allowed all Buffalo pass attempts into the endzone to go for touchdowns last week.
Additional tips: This line shouldn’t move off 1.5 touchdowns, but bet this prop to -125 if movement does occur on the odds.