Rams (-4) at Colts

Last week Matt Manocherian talked about how Carson Wentz didn’t need to be an MVP-level player to make the Colts a threat to come out of the AFC South, he just needed to be more consistent with his pre-2020 self. In Week 1 against Seattle, he did just that, albeit in a losing effort.

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However, the Rams defense poses quite a different conundrum than the Seahawks, who pressured Wentz at a rate higher than the Colts allowed in all but one game last year. That one high-pressure game was against the Steelers, one of only a few teams with a defensive front as frightening as the Aaron Donald-led Rams. Don’t expect the Colts to light up the scoreboard here.

In Matthew Stafford’s debut for Los Angeles, he completed five of six passes thrown at least 15 yards downfield for a total of 197 yards. The yards and EPA gained on those throws were both the best the Rams have had in a game since mid-2019. And despite their reputation as a bend-but-don’t-break defense, the Colts allowed the sixth-most EPA per attempt on those throws in 2020.

One thing to watch for in LA’s receiving corps is the breakdown between Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods against Indy’s zone-heavy defense. While their overall lines were similar last season, Woods was notably less productive versus man coverage, garnering fewer targets and a yard less per target. With the opportunity to find holes in the defense, expect a better showing from Woods after Kupp had the spotlight last week.

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