Super Bowl LV is still over a week away, but initial lines and props are already starting to trickle out that will be bet on early and often. One of those early props already open at books is who will win the Super Bowl MVP Award.
The Chiefs are currently a slight favorite in Super Bowl odds, so it’s not surprising that Patrick Mahomes, last season’s winner, is the favorite to take the award home this season.
In the Super Bowl’s 54-year history, 47 different players have been named MVP of the game. The first edge you can gain on who will win the award is an obvious one…picking a player from the winning team.
Just once over those 54 years has a player won the MVP award while on the losing team, with the exception being Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley back in 1971. Whichever team you’re backing in the game should be where your support for MVP is going.
Just like the regular-season award, the position with the chalkiest odds to win the award for the big game are the quarterbacks. The award has gone to a quarterback 30 times. Over the past 10 years, quarterbacks have taken home the award seven times, with Julian Edelman, Von Miller, and Malcolm Smith as the non-quarterback winners over that span. Because of that, Tom Brady, who has four SB MVP Awards already on his mantle, is the player behind Mahomes in books to take home the hardware.
Staying on the offensive side of the ball is where you want to be if moving away from a signal-caller. An offensive player has won the award 44 times. You also want to focus on touchdown equity offensively. Just two offensive players (Edelman in 2019 and Deion Branch in 2005) have won the award without a touchdown in the game, but they were at least attached to Brady if digging in on a wideout.
Wide receivers and running backs have each won the award seven times, but have moved in opposite directions in the frequency of taking home the honor. The last running back to win the award was Terrell Davis back in 1998. Since that season, four wide receivers have won the award with Edelman being the first wideout to win since Santonio Holmes in 2009. Technically Desmond Howard’s position was wide receiver, but he was not included in the totals since he won the award as a return man in 1997.
No tight end has ever won the award, but if there was ever a year for a tight end to break that seal, Travis Kelce (+1300) is fourth in odds this season.
Defensive players have taken home the award 10 times and just four times over the past 20 seasons. If shopping at a specific position, linebackers lead the way with four wins, followed by defensive ends and safeties with two each, one defensive tackle, and one cornerback. If backing a defensive player, the good news is that you don’t have to chase the randomness of a defensive touchdown. Just one of those 10 defensive players scored a touchdown. The bad news is that you still likely need that player to have created some turnover in the game and most likely multiple ones. Ray Lewis in 2001 is the only defensive player to win the award without forcing or recovering a fumble or having an interception since 1978.
Both Devin White and Tyrann Mathieu (+4000) share the best odds among defensive players this season.
Shop around for the best odds on the MVP Award, but as a starting block of seeing where players are ranked, here are the current MVP odds from DraftKings.
Top Super Bowl 54 MVP Odds
Patrick Mahomes +100
Tom Brady +200
Tyreek Hill +1200
Travis Kelce +1300
Leonard Fournette +2500
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +2800
Mike Evans +3000
Chris Godwin +3000
Devin White +4000
Tyrann Mathieu +4000
Darrel Williams +4000
Shaquil Barrett +5000
Ronald Jones +5000
Mecole Hardman +5000
Antonio Brown +6000
Chris Jones +6600
Rob Gronkowski +7000
Jason Pierre-Paul +7000
Frank Clark +7000
Cameron Brate +8000
Lavonte David +8000
Sammy Watkins +8000
*All other players at +10000 or higher