T.A.'s Conference Championship Round Picks

For the playoffs, I will post picks on sides and/or totals on all the games since I know people are in contests and pools. I will highlight the ones that I have personally wagered on and will be including the units I have bet as well. I will also mention the specific games that I did not wager on and are for pools and contests only. Note, I will only count the sides and totals that I have personally wagered on for my playoff record.

Yesterday I highlighted the major matchups to watch for and much of that analysis can be used to back up the plays below.

2019 NFL ATS Record posted in this article:

Supercontest Picks: 40-44-1 (48%)
Thursday Night Football: 11-3-1 (79%)
Other Posted Regular Season Picks: 18-9 (67%)

Playoffs:

Wildcard: 0-4 (-5.4 units)
Divisional: 2-2 (-0.75)
All Posted Picks: 71-62-2 (53%)

Sides and Totals I have wagered on:

Chiefs -7 (1 Unit -110 5Dimes)

This just feels like Andy Reid’s time. He has the much better team today and the best team in the entire NFL over the last half of the season.
The Chiefs have not only won seven straight games, but they have covered all of them. Maybe the market just hasn’t caught up to how good Kansas City really is? The Ravens closed -9.5 last week and so this line insinuates that Baltimore is 2.5 points better than KC on a neutral field. I personally had both teams even, so there is value here.
For me, this just comes down too much rather having an extremely favorable matchup in the passing game as opposed to having to slow down an RB like Derrick Henry. Patrick Mahomes faces the Titans’ 21st ranked DVOA pass defense. The Titans D has faced five teams that rank in the top 10 in DVOA pass offense. In those games, Tennessee has allowed 347 passing yards per game, 65% completion percentage, 7.64 ypa, 11 passing TDs, and 2 INTs. This includes Mahomes’s 446 passing yards in their first meeting.
In their first meeting, the Chiefs outplayed the Titans but ran into some bad luck. While leading 10-7 and in Titans territory in the second quarter, Damien Williams fumbled and the Titans took it back 53 yards for a touchdown. In addition, the Chiefs were called for five penalties in the first quarter alone, with four coming on offense. Of those four offensive penalties, three wiped out 10+ yard gains including one touchdown pass to Travis Kelce. Also in the first half, Mahomes overthrew a wide-open Tyreek Hill for a deep touchdown and Sammy Watkins dropped an easy third down pass in Titans territory that could’ve helped KC extend their 10-0 lead even further. These are not excuses, but mainly observations as to how easily the Chiefs could’ve led big early leading to a totally different Titans offensive game plan.
Don’t be too deterred by game script and the ability of Mahomes to continue to throw the ball in the second half of a blowout. In game situations when a team is winning by 14 or more points in the second half, KC is fifth in the NFL with a 45%/55% pass to run ratio. The Chiefs will continue to chuck the ball even when comfortably ahead.

Under 46.5 Niners/Packers (2 Units -110 5Dimes)

Dee Ford has played at least 30% of the Niners’ defensive snaps 11 times this season. In those games, the Niners have produced a 15% sack rate and have only allowed 13.7 offensive points per game.
I anticipate the Packers defense will play much better than in their first game and should be able to put enough pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo to potentially force a mistake or two.
In terms of pace, both teams rank in the middle of the pack or flat out slow in many game script situations. In neutral game situations, Green Bay ranks 18th and San Francisco 20th. When trailing by 7+ points, Green Bay ranks 24th. When leading by 7+ points, the Niners rank 23rd in pace. Also, as we saw last week, the Niners get very conservative with the ball when leading in the second half. Last week, the Niners ran the ball 16 times and only threw it three times in the second half. On the season, San Francisco has run the ball at the fourth-highest rate (69%) when leading by 10+ in the second halves of games. Seeing as how the Packers rank in the bottom 10 in run defense, I would expect the Niners to get ultra-conservative and run the clock out as much as possible if leading in the second half.

KC/SF ML Parlay (2 units -148 5Dimes)

Since 1989, underdogs of 7+ in the conference championship round have gone 14-11 ats but only 6-19 straight up. Of the 14 covers, eight teams lost the game.
Only two of the last 10 underdogs of 7+ have won outright. I think both underdogs have a chance to keep their games close, but I really feel the Chiefs and Niners are the much better teams and getting them both just to win is appropriate.