T.A's Week 16 Westgate Supercontest Picks

For purposes of these articles I will list the contest line as well as the most current line using 5Dimes sportsbook. I will note if the current line is playable or not. I have personally bet all of these sides unless otherwise noted. As always, shop for the best lines.

Current NFL Record:
YTD Supercontest Picks: 35-39-1 (47%)
Thursday Night Football: 11-3-1 (79%)
Other Sunday Posted Picks: 15-8 (65%)
All Posted Picks: 61-50-2 (55%)

Bills +6.5 vs New England (Current Line: +7 -125 5Dimes)

If you can get the 7 at -120/125 I think it’s worth it with a total as low as 37.
In their first matchup, the Bills were able to hold Tom Brady to 46% completion percentage, 150 yards, and a ridiculous 3.8 YPA. The Bills were able to do this even with Josh Gordon and a fully healthy Julian Edelman in the lineup.
Now the world has seen how bad Brady’s protection and WR corps is and there is no reason to believe the Bills will not be able to slow down this NE offense.
This Bills defense should be able to keep the game close enough to cover. Josh Allen will struggle against this Patriots defense, but I think relying on Devin Singletary and a ground game against a Patriots run defense that is only 11th best in success rate since Week 8.
In low scoring divisional games in the final two weeks of the season, underdogs of at least 6 points are 23-13-1 ats (64%) since 1999. It’s 10-1 ats since 2014.

Bengals +1 vs Miami (Current Line: -1.5 -110 5Dimes)

Based purely on talent, I think the Bengals are clearly the better team. I know the Dolphins have been frisky at times and are 7-3 ats in their last 10 games but are minus-47 in point differential during this stretch. This minus-4.7-point margin per game is against 10 teams that on average have a minus-2.4-point margin. This is a minus-7.1-margin differential against expectation.
In games Andy Dalton has started, the Bengals have a scoring margin of minus-9.6 but they’ve done this against a schedule of opponents that have a plus-3.6 scoring margin. This minus-6-point margin differential isn’t great but still shows how the Bengals have performed better against expectations than Miami.
This comes down to the ability of the Bengals to sustain drives and just pound Joe Mixon against this awful Miami defense. In the first 12 games of the season, the Bengals were the third pass-heaviest team in the NFL in one-score game situations. Since Dalton has come back as starter, the Bengals are now the ninth run-heaviest team. Mixon has run the ball at least 18 times in the last four games and has rushed 48 times for 282 yards in just the last two games alone.
Now he gets to face a Miami run defense that ranks 29th in success rate allowed, 29th in DVOA run defense, have allowed the ninth highest percentage of explosive runs and rank dead last in adjusted line yards allowed.
An underrated injury is the loss of Raekwon McMillan at LB for the Dolphins. Based on PFF, McMillan ranks 6th best at LB in the NFL in “stop percentage,” meaning the percentage of tackles that result in an unsuccessful play for the offense. He also rates as the ninth-best LB in terms of PFF run defense grades. McMillan is by far the best run defender among all Dolphin LBs with a grad of 77 while his replacement Sunday is Deon Lacey with a 60 run defensive grade. Mixon is in for a monster game up the middle.
There is no doubt the Dolphins will be able to move the ball against this Cincinnati defense, but with zero running game (32nd in DVOA) they will have to do it solely through the air.
I like Miami much more in a spot where they are the underdog of over 3 points not where it’s essentially a win to cover spot like this game.

Eagles +2.5 vs Dallas (Current Line: +2 -110 5Dimes)

I was really surprised that Dallas is the favorite here. I personally make this line Philly -1. So, there’s clearly value on the Eagles here.
Let’s think about this for a minute. Two weeks ago, Dallas was -3 in Chicago and got blasted. Then Dallas is somehow +1 at home to the Rams and destroy the Rams. And now they are back to -2.5 in Philly? Would the Eagles essentially be a PK against the Bears on a neutral field? No way. We know this because in Week 9, the Eagles closed -5 at home against the Bears and won by 8. That line implied the Eagles would be -2 on a neutral field against the Bears.
Now we have a clearly hampered Dak Prescott and who would feel good backing a QB with any sort of shoulder issue? Especially when it will be a late afternoon game in cold conditions.
The Eagles have been top 12 in both run and pass success rate since Week 8, even with all of the injuries to the offense. Slot WR Greg Ward has stepped up the last two games and has a juicy matchup against Jourdan Lewis, who has been torched in the slot in the back half of this season. Since Week 10, Lewis is eighth-worst in passer rating allowed from the slot.
Philly will also have a big advantage with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert against Cowboys down the middle of the field. Dallas is 27th in success rate allowed to TEs on the season and 31st since Week 10.

Chargers -7 vs OAK (Current Line: -7 -125 5Dimes)

This really comes down to Oakland quitting on the season after that emotionally devastating loss to the Jags in their last game in Oakland last week.
Now the Raiders are sitting both Trent Brown and Josh Jacobs a week after multiple cuts of veterans. This team is toast right now.
The Chargers may be playing in Philip Rivers’s last home game although not sure how much that’s worth. At least these guys will try.
Rivers should be able to have a big game against the 31st ranked pass defense in the NFL. Oakland is dead last in explosive pass plays allowed and 30th in aDOT and YAC per reception allowed. Look for big plays from Mike Williams.

Cardinals +10 vs Seattle (Current Line: +9 -110 5Dimes)

The line is rightfully trending down towards the Cardinals’ side. Seattle has one win by more than 8, albeit an earlier season game against the Cardinals.
That game was a bit fluky as the Cards missed a field goal on their first drive, then Kyler Murray threw a pick-6 to Jadaveon Clowney off a tipped ball.
Seattle is battling a bunch of impactful injuries including the loss of Clowney, Quandre Diggs and the suspension of Al Woods. Shaquill Griffin, Bobby Wagner, Mychal Kendricks, and Ezekiel Ansah are all questionable, too. Clowney, Diggs, and Griffin are the three highest PFF-graded defensive players for Seattle and Woods is their fourth-best run defender.
Arizona is 8-4-1 ats as an underdog this season and has been scrappy all year.