Each week during the 2021 NFL season, Sports Info Solutions will highlight the spread of three games including Monday Night Football.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts
With the Colts firmly on the playoff bubble, they have a lot to gain this week. Unfortunately, they have to go through the defending Super Bowl champs to do it. To make matters worse, this matchup is a bit unfavorable for them stylistically.
It’s no secret that teams have been averse to running on Tampa Bay this year. The Bucs are the least-run on team in the NFL, having seen just 182 designed runs this year. And in case you were wondering – that holds true even if you remove garbage time.
Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor is comfortably the league leader in Rushing Points Earned with 34. That’s 13 more than the next-highest rusher, Derrick Henry, who still has 26 more attempts despite missing the last several games with injury. Taylor’s 0.18 Points Earned per Rush is pretty comparable to Carson Wentz’s 0.20 Points Earned per Pass, but Taylor has made more consistent progress for the Colts’ offense. His 51% positive EPA rate on carries is much better than Wentz’s 42% positive EPA rate on passes, which ranks 27th among 36 quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts.
Tom Brady, on the other hand, ranks fourth in both that metric and Passing Total Points Earned. Antonio Brown is still out, but Rob Gronkowski made his return Monday night and should be ready to go against a defense that ranks dead-last in Pass Coverage Total Points per Play. Considering the respective strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams, it’s hard to imagine the Colts taking this one.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
There will be a lot of familiar faces staring across the field at each other on Sunday, but this rematch of last year’s divisional round game is going to look a lot different.
Fortunately for the Rams, that 32-18 loss was the last game Jared Goff played for them. Goff is now the face of a faceless rebuild in Detroit, whereas his replacement, Matthew Stafford, ranks first in Passing Total Points in the NFL. LA also added Odell Beckham, Jr., but will be missing Robert Woods, who had ranked eighth in Receiving Total Points Earned before tearing his ACL. They struggled in the first game without him, producing -10 EPA against the 49ers in Week 10, but the NFL’s second-best offense by Total Points per Play will look to bounce back coming off a bye.
Los Angeles also added Von Miller, who recorded one hurry and one QB hit in his Rams debut. He and the rest of the top-ranked pass rushing unit will be looking to get after reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers, who ranks 18th in Passing Points per Play and is having something of a down year. In that sense, it’s strange to see Green Bay having success this season considering the way they’ve traditionally won games during the Rodgers era. The Packers offense ranks 15th in Total Points Per Game and second in Rushing Total Points Per Game, while the defense is actually the strong point of the team, ranking eighth in Total Points Saved Per Game.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team
After back-to-back Monday Night Footballs in which the home team won by 20+ points, you’d hope that we’d get a more exciting primetime matchup than this, but alas. Seattle and Washington have played some pretty uninspired football this year, so if you’re watching this game, you’re likely either bored or tuning in for the schadenfreude.
The Seahawks are just not what they used to be, and some of their best-paid players are aging and in decline. Since returning from injury, Wilson ranks second-to-last in the NFL in Passing Points Earned (-14), and dead-last in On-Target Rate (57.1%). Even before the injury, he ranked 13th in Passing Points Earned per Play through the first five weeks after ranking seventh and sixth in 2019 and 2020, respectively. But, he’s not the only one who’s showing signs of age.
Duane Brown ranks 37th among tackles in Pass Blocking Points Earned per Snap. Bobby Wagner ranks 38th among linebackers in Pass Coverage Points Saved per Snap. Jamal Adams ranks 44th among safeties in Pass Coverage Points Saved per Snap. Age and asset mismanagement are finally catching up to the Seahawks, and they seem to have lost their identity.
The strong suit of an otherwise mediocre unit is their run defense, which is currently 2nd-best in the NFL. Their counterparts rank 29th in Rushing Total Points per Play, as well as 29th in Passing Total Points per Play. Taylor Heinicke has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league this year, and he ranks 32nd in Passing Points Earned per Play. So, even with Russ limited, the Seahawks may still have the quarterback advantage. That said, Heinicke has ranked third in the NFL in that same metric during Washington’s two-game win streak.
Outside of that, it’s hard to find a bright spot for this Football Team. A defensive line that looked really scary coming into the year hasn’t generated much pressure, with Jonathan Allen leading a 20th-ranked pass rush unit in pressure rate at just 13%, while Montez Sweat (11%) is having a down year and Chase Young is out for the season.
The good news is that the NFL has begun flex scheduling, so hopefully we won’t get many more primetime games that are this bad.
