Week 3 Thursday Night Football Betting Guide: Titans At Jaguars

Tennessee Offense vs Jacksonville Defense:

• After getting smashed by Patrick Mahomes in Week 1, the Jags defense stepped it up last week against the Texans. The Jags allowed only 4.2 yards per play to Houston.
• The Jags defense has only allowed 7 receptions on 8 targets to RBs in the first two weeks for 51 yards. Last week, Houston did not complete a pass to a running back.
• Deshaun Watson was only able to complete two explosive pass plays last week against Jacksonville.
• Marcus Mariota has really struggled in his last four games against this Jags defense. He has averaged 153 passing yards and has not topped 215 yards in any of those games. 
• Mariota had success running the ball, averaging 7 rushes for 37 yards on the ground against Jacksonville in his career.
• Last season in two games against Jacksonville, Mariota targeted RBs, TEs, and WRs at almost the same exact rate in both games. He targeted RBs and TEs right at 20% each in both games and WRs at around 60% in both games.
• Derrick Henry has started this season with an impressive 4.9 yards per carry and 83 yards on the ground per game. 
• Henry had a monster game against Jacksonville last year in Week 14 when the Jags essentially quit. He ran 17 times for 238 yards and 4 TDs and embarrassed the Jags defense. Outside of this performance, Henry has only averaged 3.4 yards per carry against this defense.

Jacksonville Offense vs Tennessee Defense:

• Gardner Minshew has played admirably in 7 quarters of action, completing 77% of his passes while throwing for 3 TDs and only 1 INT. 
• Minshew has not been very aggressive throwing the ball, however, and has the third-lowest air yards to the sticks among all QBs at minus-3.7 yards, meaning on average he is throwing the ball nearly 4 yards before the first down marker. In a low scoring game expect Minshew to dink and dunk a lot.
• Tennessee’s pass defense limited Jacoby Brissett to 146 yards last week on 28 attempts. They also confused Baker Mayfield in Week 1 and he needed nearly 40 attempts to throw for 285 yards. Minshew isn’t nearly as an aggressive downfield passer as Mayfield.
• Minshew has targeted RBs at 19%, TEs 26%, and WRs at 55%. Leonard Fournette has seen 10 targets from Minshew, while Dede Westbrook and D.J. Chark have seen 11 targets to lead the team. Chris Conley is right behind at 10 targets. 
• Leonard Fournette has struggled historically against the Titans, rushing for 145 yards on 47 carries and a 3.1 yards per carry average. He has topped 40 yards rushing only once in three games against the Titans.

ATS Side I like tonight: Jacksonville +1.5 -110 (5dimes):

This is a pretty bad matchup but for whatever reason, the NFL loves to put these two teams together on TNF. I have been bearish on the Titans since the summer and I think when this season is over, we will look at that opening day blowout against the Browns as one of the most surprising results all season. 

Mariota has continued his mediocre play this season and the offense is all centered around Henry. Minshew has been solid so far but rookie QBs playing early in the season have historically struggled. I think the Jags will play close to the vest but with home-field advantage, I think the Jags getting 1.5 is the right side. In a game with such a low total that one point could be valuable in a tight game.