The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 17 matchup between the 49ers and Bears on Sunday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 17 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Chicago | Rank | @ | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Spread | -3.0 | ||
| 24.25 | Implied Total | 27.25 | ||
| 25.8 | 10 | Points/Gm | 26.1 | 9 |
| 23.6 | 19 | Points All./Gm | 21.3 | 11 |
| 65.8 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 64.8 | 3 |
| 59.0 | 8 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.8 | 9 |
| 5.6 | 10 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 14 |
| 5.9 | 28 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 22 |
| 47.11% | 7 | Rush% | 44.75% | 15 |
| 52.89% | 26 | Pass% | 55.25% | 18 |
| 44.75% | 19 | Opp. Rush % | 40.47% | 9 |
| 55.25% | 14 | Opp. Pass % | 59.53% | 24 |
- San Francisco is 10-0 when leading at the half.
- The Bears have a league-high five wins when trailing at the half and six wins when trailing in the fourth quarter.
- The Bears have a league-best 9-1 record outside of their division.
- The Bears have allowed 2.62 points per drive on the road (30th) compared to 1.51 points per drive at home (2nd).
- The Bears average a league-high 14.1 plays of 10 or more yards per game.
- The 49ers average 14.0 per game, 3rd in the league.
- The 49ers lead the league in success rate on passing plays (52%).
- Chicago has a 55% success rate defending passing plays, 21st in the league.
- The Bears lead the league in success rate on rushing plays (47.7%).
- The 49ers have a 54.8% success rate defending rushing plays, 29th in the league.
- Chicago leads the NFL in points off turnover margin (+69).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Brock Purdy: Purdy dissected the Indianapolis defense on Monday night, completing 25 of 34 passes (73.5%) for 295 yards (8.7 Y/A) with a career-high 5 touchdowns.
His lone blemish was a late-game interception that was immediately negated by a pick-six from the San Francisco defense.
Purdy has been the QB4 (26.2 points) and QB2 (30.9 points) the past two weeks against the Titans and Colts.
If George Kittle is a full go come Sunday, we will bump up Purdy’s status, but he is in a good spot to stay on track as a QB1.
This game has plenty of shootout appeal and upside.
Chicago has allowed 8.2 yards per attempt on the road (31st) with a league-high 8.9% touchdown rate.
They are 28th in pressure rate (31.7%).
From a clean pocket these past two weeks, Purdy is 35 of 45 (77.8%) for 437 yards (9.7 Y/A) with 6 touchdowns.
The Bears have played two-high coverages for 51.6% of their snaps, but teams rarely stay in those looks against the 49ers due to the rushing scheme.
Purdy has faced two-high coverages on 39.1% of his dropbacks, the third-lowest rate in the league.
When he has faced two-high looks, Purdy is third in fantasy points per dropback (0.60) behind Josh Allen (0.66) and Matthew Stafford (0.63).
Caleb Williams: It was ugly for most of Saturday night, but Williams closed the game on a high note against Green Bay, ending the week as the QB8 (21 points).
Williams was only 8 of 13 for 107 yards entering the fourth quarter on Saturday before going 11 of 21 for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns in the fourth quarter and overtime.
He added 30 rushing yards, 21 of which came in the fourth quarter.
Like Purdy, Williams will get a bump in status if he has a healthy pass-catching unit coming into Sunday night.
I would love to see Rome Odunze and Luther Burden playing (hopefully at least one of them) to elevate the ceiling outlook here for Williams.
Still, even if both do miss, this game environment and matchup are inviting enough for him as a QB1 option.
We always highlight when Williams draws a weak pass rush.
The 49ers are 30th in pressure rate (29.9%) and last in the NFL in sack rate (3.4%).
When Williams has been pressured, he has completed a league-low 38.7% of his passes for 5.3 yards per pass attempt (26th) and a 4% touchdown rate (17th).
Kept clean, he still has a lower-end 66.2% completion rate in the context of the league (31st), but it is a significant gap.
He also jumps to 7.6 Y/A (13th) with a 5% touchdown rate (17th) without pressure.
And when the 49ers do not get pressure, they have allowed a 76.9% completion rate (30th), a 5.8% touchdown rate (20th), and 7.5 Y/A (17th).
The 49ers have allowed multiple passing touchdowns the past two weeks to Philip Rivers and Cam Ward.
They are coming off allowing 277 yards (7.9 Y/A) and 17.1 fantasy points to Rivers.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey turned in another stellar outing on Monday night, producing 146 total yards and 2 touchdowns on 27 touches.
He rushed 21 times for 117 yards (5.6 YPC), catching 6 of 8 targets for 29 yards and 2 scores.
That was McCaffrey’s third 100-yard rushing game.
His season-long efficiency numbers get highlighted by detractors, but McCaffrey has been a better rusher since George Kittle returned.
On 153 runs with Kittle on the field, McCaffrey has a 44.4% success rate (RB10) with a run of 10 or more yards on 11.1% of his attempts (RB16), failing to gain yardage on 15.0% (RB21).
On 127 runs with Kittle off the field, McCaffrey has a 31.5% success rate (RB44), a run of 10 or more yards on 5.5% of his attempts (RB45), and has failed to gain yardage on 23.6% (RB43).
Kittle’s availability has a significant impact here for McCaffrey’s ceiling as a rusher and upside as an RB1.
The Bears offer matchup appeal in the running game if Kittle is here to aid efficiency.
Chicago is allowing 4.8 YPC (28th) to running backs.
If Kittle is held out or limited, his absence is a boost for McCaffrey in the passing game.
With Kittle on the field, McCaffrey has 21.3% of the team’s targets with 1.53 yards per route.
With Kittle off the field, McCaffrey has 26% of the targets with 2.19 yards per route.
Chicago RBs: D’Andre Swift handled 15 touches for 70 yards on Sunday night, while Kyle Monangai turned 12 touches into 93 yards.
Monangai did his damage with a season-high 43 receiving yards, anchored by a 34-yard catch and run.
Not much has changed here in this backfield.
Swift continues to edge out Monangai in snaps and touches, but this is very much a dual backfield where Swift is an RB2/FLEX and Monangai is just a tick lower and more touchdown dependent.
This is an excellent matchup for this rushing game.
Swift is third in the rate of outside zone runs at 52% of his carries.
Monangai is fifth at 47.1%.
The 49ers have allowed 5.6 YPC to running backs on outside zone runs (29th) with a league-low 49.3% success rate.
They have allowed a first down or touchdown on a league-high 29% of those runs.
Wide Receiver
More Week 17 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Commanders | Christmas Day |
| Lions @ Vikings | Christmas Day |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Christmas Day |
| Texans @ Chargers | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Packers | Saturday -- 8:00 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ 49ers | Sunday Night Football |
| Rams @ Falcons | Monday Night Football |
