The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 9 matchup between the Bengals and Bears.
Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Chicago | Rank | @ | Cincinnati | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
| 27.5 | Implied Total | 25.0 | ||
| 24.0 | 15 | Points/Gm | 21.8 | 21 |
| 26.4 | 25 | Points All./Gm | 31.6 | 32 |
| 62.3 | 15 | Plays/Gm | 57.4 | 26 |
| 56.9 | 6 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.5 | 28 |
| 5.6 | 13 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.0 | 25 |
| 6.2 | 30 | Def. Yards/Play | 6.2 | 32 |
| 45.41% | 12 | Rush% | 33.55% | 32 |
| 54.59% | 21 | Pass% | 66.45% | 1 |
| 47.74% | 26 | Opp. Rush % | 46.37% | 24 |
| 52.26% | 7 | Opp. Pass % | 53.63% | 9 |
- The Bears are 31st in defensive success rate (52.7%)
- The Bengals are 30th in defensive success rate (52.8%).
- The Bears and Bengals are tied for 30th in points allowed per drive on possessions without a takeaway (3.08).
- Cincinnati has allowed a touchdown on a league-high 37.7% of opponent drives when they fail to get a turnover.
- The Bears are 30th (36.7%).
- The Bengals have allowed the most passing plays of 20 or more yards (30).
- Chicago is third in the league in the rate of offensive plays that gain 10 or more yards (22.5%).
- 16.2% of Chicago's run plays have gained 10 or more yards, second in the league behind Baltimore (17.8%).
- 89.8% of the rushing plays against the Bengals have gained yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bears (6.8) and Bengals (6.1) are the two worst defenses in yards allowed per play on early downs (first and second).
- The Bears have led for 43.8% of their offensive snaps, 9th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Caleb Williams (TRUST): Williams completed a season-high 25 passes on Sunday with a 65.8% completion rate and 285 yards (both the second-highest marks of the year), but in failing to throw a touchdown with an interception, he ended as the QB18 (11.8 points).
Williams has now finished in the back half of weekly scoring in three of his past four games.
He has run cold in the touchdown department, throwing 4 touchdowns over his past four games.
It brings me no joy to lean into him here, since he has underperformed in matchups against the Raiders (11.8 points) and Saints (4.7 points) over that span, but this Cincinnati defense keeps giving.
The closest game we have for Williams to this one was against Dallas, when he was QB1 overall in scoring (29.1 points).
Cincinnati is allowing 17.3 passing points per game (29th).
The Bears have a 27.5-point team total here.
Cincinnati has allowed 27 or more points in seven straight games.
The Bengals just gave up 39 points to a Jets offense that had scored 39 points total over their previous three games.
That was also an offense without Garrett Wilson and was likely to bench their starting quarterback entering the week, but couldn’t because Tyrod Taylor was injured.
The Bengals have allowed QB1 scoring weeks to Carson Wentz, Aaron Rodgers, and Fields this season.
The Bengals are 30th in pressure rate (26.9%) and had the league’s worst pressure rate on Sunday against Fields, who invites more pressure than any other quarterback.
Trey Hendrickson was back last week, but only played 31.9% of the defensive snaps before aggravating his injury.
The concern here for Williams not getting there is that the Bears are running all over the Bengals, but even then, that will create scoring opportunities.
Joe Flacco (TRUST): Flacco is dealing with a shoulder injury, but if everything checks for him this week, this is another stellar matchup for this passing game to keep their hot run going.
In his three starts with the Bengals, Flacco has been the QB13 (18.8 points), QB6 (26 points), and QB5 (24.3 points).
With Flacco, the Bengals have thrown the ball 6% more than expectations, and 11% over expectations on first downs.
He has made this offensive line seem respectable in pass protection.
Flacco has only been pressured on 27.9% of his dropbacks with the Bengals, the fourth-lowest rate in the league over the past three weeks.
A large part of that is that he has the fastest time to throw (2.38 seconds) in the league over that span.
Flacco has the lowest rate of dropbacks that have lost -1.0 EPA or worse (9.3%) over these past three weeks.
Now, he draws another great matchup against a Chicago defense that is 30th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.550).
This game is the Spider-Man meme, as highlighted in the game notes.
Chicago is 28th in pressure rate (29.7%).
Without pressure, they are allowing a 72.2% completion rate (30th), 7.8 Y/A (30th), and a league-high 8.2% touchdown rate.
The Bears are fresh off allowing Tyler Huntley to complete 77.3% of his passes for 8.5 Y/A.
Running Back
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More Week 9 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Ravens @ Dolphins | Thursday Night Football |
| Bears @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Commanders | Sunday Night Football |
| Cardinals @ Cowboys | Monday Night Football |
