Bears vs Packers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 12

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 12 Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Sunday Night Football game.

Chicago	Rank	@	Green Bay	Rank
8.5		Spread	-8.5
18.25		Implied Total	26.75
19.1	31	Points/Gm	30.8	3
20.9	6	Points All./Gm	25.8	17
64.4	14	Plays/Gm	62.9	23
65.8	22	Opp. Plays/Gm	59.7	2
33.7%	32	Rush%	42.1%	13
66.3%	1	Pass%	57.9%	20
43.6%	22	Opp. Rush %	42.9%	19
56.4%	11	Opp. Pass %	57.1%	14

16-of-18 (88.9%) offensive touchdowns scored by Chicago have come via passing, the largest percentage in the league.
Green Bay is second at 78.4% (29-of-37).
The Packers have scored on 44.4% of their offensive plays inside of the 10-yard line, the highest rate in the league.
The Bears are 31st in the league at 26.3%.
Aaron Rodgers is a league-leading 22-of-28 (78.6%) passing inside of the 10-yard line with the most touchdown passes (18).
Just 40% of the scoring plays against Chicago this season have been touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league. League average is 60.9%.
The Bears have just 17 rushing plays of 10 or more yards, the fewest in the league.
The Bears are the best defense in allowing opponents to convert on third downs (33.3%) and also the worst offense in converting third downs on offense (31.1%).
Just 27.2% of Nick Foles’s pass attempts on third downs have resulted in a first down, the lowest rate for all qualifying passers.

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has finished lower than QB7 just twice on the season, throwing multiple touchdown passes in every game but one. The Bears are allowing just 13.1 passing points per game (sixth), but have allowed lower-end QB1 scoring weeks to Drew Brees (19.6 points) and Kirk Cousins (17.6 points) at home over their past three games. The Bears are not getting to the quarterback, which is still the key to aggravating Rodgers. Rodgers is averaging 5.5 Y/A and a 37.3% completion rate under pressure, but Chicago is 24th in pressure rate (19.8%).

Where Rodgers can still stay afloat as lower-end QB1 such as Brees and Cousins did, it is hard to anticipate a full ceiling game here. The Bears have not allowed more than two touchdown passes in 36 consecutive games, the longest such streak since the Jets went 59 straight games over the 2001-2004 seasons.

Mitchell Trubisky: Trubisky has logged practice time and was declared the starter on Friday. The matchup is not daunting as the Packers are mid-pack in passing points allowed per game (15.8), but in a full week of options, Trubisky is only a 2QB option. In two starts against the Packers a year ago, Trubisky was the QB31 and QB18.

Running Back

Aaron Jones: Jones has slowed down on the yardage front, posting 41, 79, 95, and 71 yards over his past four games. He has been limited on the ground, rushing 48 times for 160 yards (3.3 YPC) over that stretch, but has added 7.4 receiving points per game over that span to keep his floor high as Jones has not had finished a week lower RB17 on the season.

The Bears have made Dalvin Cook (30 carries for 96 yards) and Derrick Henry (21 carries for 68 yards) work hard over their past two games. Jones himself rushed for 39 and 51 yards in two games against the Bears, but his receiving work and scoring upside have kept him with one highest floors at the position as an RB1 option.

David Montgomery: After missing last week with a concussion, Montgomery is expected to return to action Sunday night. Montgomery has just one RB1 scoring week on the season, but has been lower than RB25 in just one game since Tarik Cohen was lost for the season as he has averaged 18.7 touches and 6.5 receiving points per game. The Packers are allowing 156.9 yards per game to opposing backfields (30th), but as we have seen in great matchups versus the Panthers and Titans already, Montgomery is volume-based RB2 option.

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams: Adams has scored in five consecutive games with eight total touchdown receptions over that span. Since returning to the lineup in Week 6, Adams has a low of 12.6 PPR points, catching 51-of-70 targets for 655 yards and those eight touchdowns. Adams reeled in 7-of-13 targets for 103 yards and scored the last time these teams played in 2019 and had 100 yards or a touchdown in six of his past eight games versus Chicago. Adams is the weekly WR1 option once again in Week 12.

Allen Robinson: Robinson has only three WR1 scoring weeks on the season as he has had a continuous fight through quarterback play, but his volume has given him a high floor throughout the season. Robinson has had just one game this season with single-digit PPR points. The Bears move Robinson around a good amount, getting him into the slot 31% of the time to free him from Jaire Alexander for a number of pass routes. In two games versus Green Bay a year ago, Robinson had games of 7-102-0 and 7-125-0. Robinson is a volume-based WR2.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling has a reception of 40-plus yards in each of the past three games, but with more than six targets in just two games this season, his upside is tied into reaching the end zone. MVS has been the WR12, WR18, and WR4 in his three games with a touchdown and the WR50 or lower in each of his seven games without a score, leaving Valdes-Scantling as a touchdown-dependent FLEX. *Valdes-Scantling injured his Achilles in Thursday’s practice and then missed Friday. He is considered questionable to face the Bears, but it does not seem promising he will be available.

Allen Lazard: Lazard returned to action last week for the first time since Week 3, playing 60% of the snaps and running a pass route on 60.9% of the team dropbacks, catching 2-of-4 targets for 18 yards. Lazard should improve his usage moving forward with Valdes-Scantling banged up now, but he is a WR4 option.

Darnell Mooney: Mooney is getting plenty of exercise, receiving 739 air yards in his direction since Week 2, which is only slightly behind Robinson (758) over that span. But Mooney has seen just 63.5% of his targets deemed catchable, which has played a part into all of those opportunities turning into just 277 actual yards over that span. Mooney has just two weeks higher than WR46. The Packers are 30th in completion rate allowed on targets over 15 yards downfield (54.0%) if you want to chase a big play in single game DFS.

Anthony Miller: Miller has matched Robinson in targets (26) over the past three games, turning those opportunities into games of 8-73, 5-59, and 2-28 over that span. Miller has not scored a touchdown since Week 2 and has been higher than WR56 in just three games (one of his past seven), leaving him as only a single game DFS option as well.

Tight End

Jimmy Graham: Graham has notched more than 34 yards in just two games this season, tethered to whether or not he finds the end zone. All three of his TE1 scoring weeks this season have come along with a touchdown while he has averaged 4.9 PPR points per game in his six games without a touchdown this season. The Packers are 29th in yards per target allowed to tight ends (8.7 yards) and just allowed two scores to Indianapolis tight ends last week if you want to chase Graham as a touchdown-dependent TE2.

Robert Tonyan: Tonyan caught all five of his targets for 44 yards and a touchdown last week, to get back on the fantasy radar. It was Tonyan’s first end zone target since Week 4 and the 44 yards were the second-most he has had in a game since Adams returned to the lineup. The Bears have only allowed 12 passing touchdowns this season, but six have gone to opposing tight ends, the highest share of touchdowns for tight ends in the league if you need to pursue Tonyan as a TE2 or Showdown DFS option.

More Week 12 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: