The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 3 matchup between the Vikings and Bengals.
Find a breakdown of every Week 3 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Cincinnati | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | Spread | -1.5 | ||
| 20.0 | Implied Total | 21.5 | ||
| 24.0 | 9 | Points/Gm | 16.5 | 27 |
| 21.5 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 23.0 | 17 |
| 57.0 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 47.5 | 32 |
| 70.5 | 29 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.0 | 20 |
| 4.3 | 31 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 26 |
| 5.2 | 16 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 15 |
| 35.09% | 27 | Rush% | 47.37% | 9 |
| 64.91% | 6 | Pass% | 52.63% | 24 |
| 36.17% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 51.59% | 29 |
| 63.83% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 48.41% | 4 |
- 58.3% of Cincinnati's set of downs have reached third down, 30th in the league.
- 57.5% of Minnesota's set of downs have reached third down, 29th in the league.
- The Vikings are averaging 1.43 points per drive, ahead of only the Raiders (1.32) and Titans (1.24).
- 52.2% of Minnesota's possessions have failed to gain a first down, the highest rate through two weeks. The league average is 31.8%.
- The Bengals have blitzed on a league-low 5.4% of opposing dropbacks. The league rate is 25.8%.
- Minnesota is 31st in passing EPA on offense (-23.09) through two weeks.
- With Jake Browning on the field in 2023, the Bengals averaged 5.6 yards per play. In that same season, they averaged 4.9 yards per play with Joe Burrow.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jake Browning: Browning will take over as the starter for the Bengals after the team lost Joe Burrow for what is expected to be three months, if not the remainder of the season.
Browning went 21 of 32 (65.6%) for 241 yards (7.5 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on Sunday in the comeback victory.
This will be his second stint as a starter in the NFL.
Browning started the final seven games for the Bengals in 2023, completing 70.4% of his passes for 8.0 yards per attempt with 12 touchdowns and 7 interceptions over that stretch.
He added 127 yards and 3 touchdowns rushing.
Browning added some volatility for his pass catchers during that run, but he himself was a solid fantasy option.
Over his seven games, he was:
- QB18 (11.9 points) in Week 12 vs. PIT
- QB4 (26.7 points) in Week 13 vs. JAX
- QB4 (23.7 points) in Week 14 vs. IND
- QB8 (18.9 points) in Week 15 vs. MIN
- QB24 (13.4 points) in Week 16 vs. PIT
- QB7 (21.1 points) in Week 17 vs. KC
- QB10 (18.0 points) in Week 18 vs. CLE
He should be a pickup for gamers who lost Burrow and Superflex players in general.
The Bengals remained aggressive throwing the ball with Browning on Sunday and over the stretch in 2023.
They threw the ball 5% over expectation on Sunday with him in the game (18% over expectation on first downs).
Over his seven starts in 2023, they threw the ball 2% more than expected (3% more on first downs).
We should see a change in approach from how the Bengals threw the ball that season.
When Browning took over that year, he averaged 6.4 air yards per attempt, the fewest in the NFL.
Burrow was right ahead of him at 6.4 air yards per throw.
32.1% of Browning’s throws in 2023 were at or behind the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in the league.
Burrow was at 28.3%, which was 29th.
15.2% of Browning’s throws were screens, the highest rate in the league.
Burrow was at 12.6% (5th).
The Bengals have adopted more of a downfield passing game since that season, so it will be interesting to see if Browning adapts to the current play calls or Cincinnati reverts to familiarity.
On Sunday, Browning averaged 8.8 air yards per attempt (9th highest in Week 2) and only threw 18.8% of his passes (12th lowest) at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Browning has streaming appeal attached to a pass-heavy offense and two strong pass catchers, but this immediate stretch of opponents for the Bengals has him more of a QB2 option that you will take anything extra from.
The Bengals have an unflattering team total here and face a Minnesota defense that is sixth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.318) and third in passing points allowed (8.9 per game).
Carson Wentz: Wentz is expected to start on Sunday, filling in for the injured J.J. McCarthy.
We have seen Wentz start a game in each of the past two seasons, but that was as a Week 18 clean-up option in both seasons for the Rams and Chiefs.
Last year, he was 10 of 17 for 98 yards with the Chiefs in their finale.
With the Rams in 2023, he was 17 of 24 for 163 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception, rushing for 56 yards and a touchdown.
This will be his first midseason start since 2023 with Washington.
Wentz does get to start in a Kevin O’Connell offense with Justin Jefferson as a primary pass catcher, as added appeal.
If he can avoid the negative plays that McCarthy stacked up to open the year, this offense can be on schedule to a greater degree.
McCarthy lost 1.0 EPA or worse on a league-high 31.5% of his dropbacks through two weeks.
As a byproduct, the Vikings are last in the NFL in offensive snaps.
Even with a better outlook if he can play clean football, the reason that Wentz remains as a QB2 is that Minnesota is expected to be missing a handful of starters.
The team will once again be without Jordan Addison and perhaps Christian Darrisaw.
They will also be without Aaron Jones.
On top of that, they could be missing two more starters on the offensive line in center Ryan Kelly and left tackle Justin Skule (playing for Darrisaw), who are each in the concussion protocol.
McCarthy was pressured on 40.7% of his dropbacks through two games, the sixth-highest rate in the league.
He was pressured on 55.6% of his dropbacks on Sunday night with Kelly and Skule off the field.
The Bengals are 24th in pressure rate defensively (30.4%) and have blitzed at the league’s lowest rate (5.4%), so they might not take full advantage of the moving parts along Minnesota's offensive line.
The Bengals are 21st in passing points allowed (15.2 per game) through two weeks.
The Bengals will be without first-round pick Shemar Stewart (ankle) for this game.
Running Back
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More Week 3 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Dolphins @ Bills | Thursday Night Football |
| Packers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Bears | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Giants | Sunday Night Football |
| Lions @ Ravens | Monday Night Football |
