We have talked a good bit already in this series about biases and how important it is to challenge them within the framework of good process and good intuition of the factors that lead to or block player opportunity.

In this article, we are going to talk about assumptions.

Best Ball Fantasy Football: Everything You Need to Know

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One of the great things about best ball as opposed to DFS is there are far fewer actionable numbers about what is happening on the field.

Once the season starts, there are accurate numbers for things like targets, pass rate, and other factors that improve projections. With best ball, there is less concrete information.

So instead we need to take a lot of factors and make the best assumptions we can, something our competition is doing as well.

The net result of the market’s assumptions is found in the current ADP of the players.

That being said, it is very easy for us to get dogmatic with our assumptions and have them turn into biases.

Biases are like chains. Sometimes the chains anchor us, but often the assumptions that lead to the biases turn out to be incorrect.

Therefore, it is important to be willing to challenge our assumptions with as much good information as possible.

There is an old saying that when you assume you make an “ass” out of “u” and “me.” In best ball, however, we must make assumptions.

Beyond that and most importantly we need to look at the assumptions the field is making and look for other possible ways those situations can play out. In doing so, we can take advantage of shaky assumptions that have perhaps turned into biases.

Let’s challenge some assumptions and make ourselves the best we can be!

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