We have talked a good bit already in this series about biases and how important it is to challenge them within the framework of good process and good intuition of the factors that lead to or block player opportunity.
In this article, we are going to talk about assumptions.
Best Ball Fantasy Football: Everything You Need to Know
One of the great things about best ball as opposed to DFS is there are far fewer actionable numbers about what is happening on the field.
Once the season starts, there are accurate numbers for things like targets, pass rate, and other factors that improve projections. With best ball, there is less concrete information.
So instead we need to take a lot of factors and make the best assumptions we can, something our competition is doing as well.
The net result of the market’s assumptions is found in the current ADP of the players.
That being said, it is very easy for us to get dogmatic with our assumptions and have them turn into biases.
Biases are like chains. Sometimes the chains anchor us, but often the assumptions that lead to the biases turn out to be incorrect.
Therefore, it is important to be willing to challenge our assumptions with as much good information as possible.
There is an old saying that when you assume you make an “ass” out of “u” and “me.” In best ball, however, we must make assumptions.
Beyond that and most importantly we need to look at the assumptions the field is making and look for other possible ways those situations can play out. In doing so, we can take advantage of shaky assumptions that have perhaps turned into biases.
Here are some of the current assumptions baked into ADP that carry a reasonable chance of being wrong and how we can leverage them.
Situations To Target in Best Ball Drafts
- ADP says Christian McCaffrey is still the No. 1 RB and we shouldn’t worry about Elijah Mitchell even though McCaffrey’s scored EIGHT fewer points per game when Mitchell played. I am mostly fading CMC at cost (there is an opportunity cost in taking early RB as well) and mixing in Mitchell. Those eight points are a nice floor for Mitchell, and if McCaffrey gets hurt he could be a league winner
- Another first-round back is rookie Bijan Robinson. I have written it is smart to have some Bijan, but it is very likely Tyler Allgeier is still pretty involved. Allgeier is not currently baked into Bijan’s ADP, and I have revised my stance now that Bijan goes top five fairly regularly. I am fine being slightly under on him.
- Another rookie back I am going to be way under at cost on is Jahmyr Gibbs. The assumption is he will have the full role D’Andre Swift had two years ago even though David Montgomery is an upgrade on Jamaal Williams and is also a good pass catcher. Gibbs didn’t get red zone work or run much between the tackles even in college. For now, I am drafting a lot of Montgomery and very little Gibbs. When I do take him, I wait for him to fall to the fourth round, and even then mostly only on full PPR sites. Since 60% of my drafting will be once camp starts, I still have time to change course and get him closer to even weight if needed.
Those are three key early situations that offer an example of how to leverage assumptions. What assumptions are you attacking?
Think it over and hit me up on Twitter @bestballnfl.
Let’s challenge some assumptions and make ourselves the best we can be!
Rich Hribar returns on this week’s podcast. Rich has recently put out his redraft rankings for the Sharp Football Fantasy Draft Kit.
There is a lot of discrepancy between Rich’s rankings and current ADP which I believe will lead to some very fruitful discussions!
This is part of a best ball strategy series from expert best ball player Tod Burros.
