Jaguars vs. Bills Fantasy Football Worksheet, Wild Card Round

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Wild Card Round matchup between the Jaguars and Bills.

Find a breakdown of every Wild Card Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Game Overview

Liam Coen quickly turned around the Jaguars.

The Jaguars won 13 games in his first season as head coach, their most since 1999.

They are the hottest team in football.

Since their Week 8 bye, the Jaguars are 9-1, winning eight straight games with a league-best +153 point differential over that winning streak.

The next closest team in point margin over that run is at +97.

Jacksonville has scored 2.83 points per drive over that streak, fourth in the league.

Before their bye, the Jaguars were averaging 1.71 points per drive, which was 27th in the league.

The passing game has really taken off since their bye.

Jacksonville has gained 10 or more yards on 31.4% of its passing plays since Week 9, third in the NFL.

Before that, they had a gain of 10 or more yards on 23.3% of their passing plays, which was 25th.

The turnaround has not been entirely about the offense.

Over their past 10 games, Jacksonville has allowed 1.57 points per drive, which is fifth in the league.

The Jaguars have had a lighter road over the back half of the season, but they were 4-3 against teams with winning records, including road wins in Denver and San Francisco.

This will be a test for an upcoming team, as Buffalo is the most experienced postseason team in the AFC.

Buffalo did not win the AFC East for the first time since 2019, but this is their seventh straight season in the playoffs and eighth playoff trip in the nine seasons under Sean McDermott.

The Bills are 5-2 in the Wild Card Round under McDermott, with both of the losses coming on the road.

The first one was in Jacksonville back in 2017, before the Bills had Josh Allen.

The Jaguars have been a better team at home this season, allowing 1.55 points per drive (3rd) at home compared to 1.95 on the road (11th).

That aligns with Buffalo.

The Bills have averaged 2.27 points per drive on the road (12th) compared to 2.98 points per drive at home (2nd).

We are going to get into the individual player matchups below.

One of the fascinating components of this matchup is the inverse structure of how each team wants to operate on offense versus what the other team pushes opponents to do.

Jacksonville has been a far better passing offense than rushing team this season, but the Bills are a better pass defense than they are at stopping the run.

On the other hand, the Bills are one of the run-heaviest teams in the league, while the Jaguars are a complete pass-funnel defense.

Quarterback

Josh Allen: Although Allen's counting stats declined in 2025, he had another excellent season.

Allen had career lows in touchdown passes (25) and passing yards per game (215.8), but he had career highs in completion rate (69.3%) and yards per pass attempt (8.0).

Those rates were good for fourth and fifth in the league this season.

Although his passing touchdowns dropped from the year prior for the fifth consecutive season, Allen still posted a 5.4% touchdown rate, his sixth consecutive season over 5%.

No other quarterback over that span can say the same.

On top of the passing efficiency, Allen added 579 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground, his third season in a row with double-digit rushing scores.

If there is one nit to pick with Buffalo, it is that they do not throw it more.

Skeptics will point to Buffalo’s strengths being the offensive line, James Cook, Allen’s own rushing ability, and the subpar group of pass catchers they have as the primary components for leaning into the run, but any time that Buffalo has been pressed to throw the football this season, they have been successful.

Buffalo may not have a great group of pass catchers, but Allen raises that tide.

Buffalo has a 46.7% success rate on passing plays, seventh in the league.

That is what makes this matchup so compelling.

The Bills are 28th in pass rate compared to expectations (-3%).

Opponents against the Jaguars have thrown the ball 4.4% over expectations, the second-highest rate over expectations in the league.

The Bills are going to run against anyone, but anytime fantasy gamers have a spot where Buffalo could be coaxed into being more aggressive throwing the football, our ears perk up a bit.

These big games are typically when Buffalo puts more on Allen.

Allen has averaged 26.4 fantasy points per game in 13 career playoff games.

He has been held below 20 fantasy points in just three of those, with one game below 17 points.

As a passer in the postseason, Allen has thrown 25 touchdowns to 4 interceptions,

As a runner, he averages 51.4 yards per game on the ground with 7 touchdowns.

Jacksonville has good top-down metrics against the pass, but they also faced the second-easiest slate of passing opponents this season.

The Jaguars are sixth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.356), allowing a 62.5% completion rate (8th), 6.3 yards per attempt (3rd), and a 4.2% touchdown rate (12th).

Since the Week 8 bye, however, they have faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Brady Cook, Bo Nix, Philip Rivers, and Brandon Allen as the primary passers.

Not exactly the most daunting rogue’s gallery.

To their credit, they did smother Herbert over that span, but they did allow 352 passing yards to Nix (although just 1 touchdown).

Before their bye, they faced Brock Purdy (17.7 points), Patrick Mahomes (26.7 points), Sam Darnold (20 points), and Matthew Stafford (27.4 points), who all posted strong fantasy output.

Allen is much more in the bucket of the latter group than the former.

Jacksonville is middle-of-the-pack with a 36.2% pressure rate (19th) and at the bottom of the league with a 4.8% sack rate (30th).

The Jaguars are also 21st in rushing points allowed to top quarterbacks (3.2 per game) as a pipeline for Allen, assuming nothing is pressing here about a foot injury he was working through to close the season.

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence is in the midst of the hottest stretch of his career.

Since the Week 8 bye, Lawrence is averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt (7th) with a 6.6% touchdown rate (4th).

He has averaged a league-high 22.6 fantasy points per game over that span.

Before that, Lawrence was averaging 6.3 yards per pass attempt (26th) with a 3.5% touchdown rate (26th).

He averaged 16.0 fantasy points per game during the front half of the year, which ranked QB18.

Lawrence also set career highs with 359 yards rushing and 9 touchdowns on the ground.

While Jacksonville has had a run of weak opponents over the back half of the season, we have also seen this offense score 34 points in Denver three weeks ago as proof of concept that things have flipped for Lawrence in this passing game.

In that Denver game, Lawrence scored 31.2 fantasy points, connecting on 23 of 36 passes (63.9%) for 279 yards (7.8 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns and tacking on 20 yards and a score on the ground.

That performance provides added confidence here against a Buffalo defense that is second in passing points allowed (10.2 per game), allowing a 60.5% completion rate (4th), 6.4 yards per pass attempt (7th), and a 4.1% touchdown rate (11th).

Buffalo has had some favorable opponents (who hasn’t this season?).

Still, they have a stronger resume than Jacksonville when it comes to limiting spike weeks, holding Drake Maye to 155 passing yards and 6.7 yards per attempt in Week 15.

They limited Patrick Mahomes to a 44.1% completion rate and 0 touchdowns.

Buffalo has only allowed one passer to throw more than 2 touchdown passes against them, which was Joe Burrow.

Burrow’s game is the upside case for this red-hot passing game.

The other element in play for Lawrence is his production on the ground.

The Bills are 29th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks (22.6 per game).

Running Back

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