The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 13 Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens Sunday afternoon game.

DenverRank@BaltimoreRank
8.5Spread-8.5
15Implied Total23.5
14.332Points/Gm258
17.63Points All./Gm20.612
63.715Plays/Gm62.318
63.219Opp. Plays/Gm61.59
526Off. Yards/Play5.710
4.84Def. Yards/Play5.517
40.37%20Rush%49.49%6
59.63%13Pass%50.51%27
42.16%14Opp. Rush %34.17%2
57.84%19Opp. Pass %65.83%31
  • Denver games are now 110.5 total points below the game total this season, the lowest differential in the league.
  • Just 22.7% of the Denver offensive drives have reached the red zone or scored prior, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Denver has punted on 50.8% of their possessions, the only team in the league over 50%.
  • Baltimore has scored first in 10 games this season, the most in the league. 
  • The Ravens have 24 completions that have gained 20 or more yards, ahead of only the Rams (23) and Giants (19).
  • Baltimore has a +86 point differential in quarters 1-3 (third in the league) while having a -38 point differential in the fourth quarter (31st).
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Quarterback

Lamar Jackson: Jackson posted his highest-scoring game (23.1 points) since Week 3 and there was plenty left on the table. Jackson threw for 254 yards (his most since Week 2) and ran for another 89 (his most since Week 3) despite completing just 50% of his passes and throwing one touchdown pass.

Baltimore pass catchers put at least three potential touchdown passes down with drops, but Jackson now has seven touchdown passes over his past eight games after throwing 10 in the opening three weeks of the season.

While Jackson is not maxing out a ceiling that correlates to his ADP, he still has been a top-10-scoring quarterback in three of his past four games. He also has rarely bottomed out, scoring at least 15.0 fantasy points in five of his past six games. 

This is another spot where it is hard to plan for a ceiling week. Denver is second in passing points allowed per attempt (0.302) and has allowed just two top-10 fantasy scorers on the season. 

That said, the amount of lifting that the Denver defense has had to do this season may finally be showing up. Those two top-10 weeks allowed have come over their past three games to Ryan Tannehill (19.4 points) and Derek Carr (20.3 points), while Sam Darnold threw for 8.6 yards per attempt and posted 16.9 fantasy points last week. 

Since the trade of Bradley Chubb, Denver is 26th in pressure rate (26.6% of dropbacks) and last in the NFL with just two sacks. They have allowed a 101.1 passer rating over that span, 25th in the league. Jackson had 19.4 fantasy points against Denver a year ago.

I am still hesitant banking on a spike week from Jackson since his surrounding talent on offense is still lacking, but he is a floor-based QB1 through his rushing ability. 

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