The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 9 matchup between the Texans and Broncos.
Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Denver | Rank | @ | Houston | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | Spread | -1.5 | ||
| 19.0 | Implied Total | 20.5 | ||
| 25.9 | 10 | Points/Gm | 21.9 | 19 |
| 18.9 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 14.7 | 1 |
| 64.1 | 7 | Plays/Gm | 62.4 | 14 |
| 61.8 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 56.0 | 3 |
| 5.6 | 14 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 20 |
| 4.6 | 1 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 5 |
| 42.89% | 17 | Rush% | 42.56% | 18 |
| 57.11% | 16 | Pass% | 57.44% | 15 |
| 40.69% | 14 | Opp. Rush % | 40.56% | 13 |
| 59.31% | 19 | Opp. Pass % | 59.44% | 20 |
- Houston games are averaging a league-low 36.6 combined points per game.
- The Texans are allowing a league-low 1.36 points per drive.
- The Broncos are allowing 1.62 points per drive, fourth in the league.
- Denver has allowed a touchdown on 15.2% of opponent possessions, second in the league.
- Houston has allowed a touchdown on 17.1% of opponent drives, fourth in the league.
- Denver has forced a punt on a league-high 50% of opponent possessions.
- Houston has forced a punt on 46.1% of opponent drives, second in the league.
- Denver has a league-best 63.1% success rate against passing plays.
- Houston is second with a 62.2% success rate against opponent passing plays.
- Denver is averaging 1.2 more yards per rushing play than their opponents, the best margin in the league.
- Denver is 5-2 (.714) when their opponent scores first. The league has a .362 win rate when failing to score first.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Bo Nix: Nix delivered in a great spot at home last week, torching the Cowboys for a season-high 8.5 yards per pass attempt and 4 passing scores.
We always look at Nix based on the matchups, as he has been one of the most matchup-sensitive fantasy options since entering the league.
This season has been no different in opening the year.
Nix has QB1 scoring weeks against the Cowboys, Giants, Bengals, and Colts.
He has faced two teams in the top 10 in passing points allowed per attempt this season, the Chargers and Eagles.
In those games, he was the QB16 (13.4 points) and QB15 (17.9 points), averaging 6.1 and 6.2 yards per pass attempt, respectively.
That QB2 range is where I will have him this week.
Nix runs into a Houston defense on the road that is allowing the fewest passing points per attempt in the league (0.310).
The Texans have allowed a 58.3% completion rate (second), 6.4 yards per pass attempt (5th), and a league-low 2.8% touchdown rate.
They are fifth in pressure rate (40.9%) and sixth in pressure rate without blitzing (38%).
When Houston has gotten pressure, they have allowed a league-low 33.3% completion rate and a 38.6 rating.
Nix has still been sensitive to pressure.
He is completing 44.6% of his passes under pressure (25th) for 4.3 Y/A (30th).
C.J. Stroud: Stroud bounced back on Sunday, completing 30 of 39 passes for 318 yards and 2 touchdowns against the 49ers.
He threw an interception but added 30 rushing yards to offset the turnover for fantasy purposes.
Stroud was incredible on third downs on Sunday, completing all 11 of his third-down passes for 104 yards (9.5 Y/A) and a touchdown, converting 7 into new downs.
Stroud has flashed a usable floor with QB1 upside in some cozy matchups, but we have yet to see this offense and passing game punch up.
He has had his best moments against the Titans and a depleted Baltimore defense.
On Sunday, he was efficient against another depleted San Francisco defense that cannot rush the passer.
Stroud was pressured on only 23.8% of his dropbacks on Sunday, the fourth-lowest rate in the league in Week 8.
Right before last week's game, we saw Stroud have his hands full with the Seattle pass rush, throwing for a season-low 4.7 yards per pass attempt.
This is a similar matchup.
Denver is third in pressure rate (43.2%) and first in sack rate (12.3%).
29% of their pressures have resulted in sacks, the highest rate in the league.
They will not have Patrick Surtain to alleviate the matchup to a degree, but Dak Prescott took 18 dropbacks on Sunday with Surtain off the field, throwing for 6.1 Y/A with a 55.1 rating on those plays.
In 2024, Denver faced 103 dropbacks with Surtain off the field, allowing 6.6 Y/A on those plays, which was still good for second in the league.
This is still a unit to respect, and Stroud is still a QB2 until he punches up in a tough spot.
If he can hit here, it will go a long way toward building confidence in this passing game turning things around.
Denver has allowed multiple passing touchdowns twice this season, allowing 11.5 passing points per game.
Running Back
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More Week 9 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Ravens @ Dolphins | Thursday Night Football |
| Bears @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Commanders | Sunday Night Football |
| Cardinals @ Cowboys | Monday Night Football |
