The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 8 matchup between the Patriots and Browns.
Find a breakdown of every Week 8 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Cleveland | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Spread | -7.0 | ||
| 16.75 | Implied Total | 23.75 | ||
| 16.1 | 30 | Points/Gm | 25.9 | 8 |
| 21.7 | 13 | Points All./Gm | 19.0 | 5 |
| 65.7 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 60.0 | 20 |
| 56.4 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 55.9 | 3 |
| 4.1 | 31 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 9 |
| 4.5 | 3 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 23 |
| 37.83% | 28 | Rush% | 46.19% | 8 |
| 62.17% | 5 | Pass% | 53.81% | 25 |
| 44.81% | 21 | Opp. Rush % | 40.15% | 10 |
| 55.19% | 12 | Opp. Pass % | 59.85% | 23 |
- The Patriots lead the league in success rate on passing plays (52.7%).
- Cleveland is last in the league in success rate on passing plays (35%).
- The Patriots have a 48.3% success rate defending passing plays, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Browns are eighth in defensive success rate on passing plays (59.2%) and first against rushing plays (70.1%).
- 26.9% of the runs against Cleveland have gained five or more yards (lowest), and 7.8% have gained 10 or more yards (6th-lowest).
- The Browns have had the lowest rate of runs gaining five or more yards (25.6%) and 10 or more yards (7.6%) in the league.
- The Browns have punted on a league-high 50% of their possessions.
- Cleveland is averaging a league-low 21.6 yards per drive since changing starting quarterbacks.
- The Browns allow a league-low 22.7 yards per drive.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Drake Maye: Maye continued his excellent start to the season on Sunday, completing 21 of 23 passes for 222 yards (9.7 Y/A) and 2 touchdowns.
He added 62 yards rushing to his line, turning in his fifth top-10 scoring week over his past six games.
Maye’s 91.3% completion rate was tied for the eighth-best all-time for a passer with over 20 attempts in a game.
He has now completed 10.3% more of his passes than expected, the highest differential in the league.
Maye was 6 of 7 on throws 10 or more yards downfield, extending his league-lead in completion rate on those throws (69.7%).
The league completion rate on those throws is 46.7%.
The way that Maye is playing, it is hard to aggressively look to stream for him, especially in a week with so many byes.
That said, this is his toughest test of the season so far, and I don't anticipate a ceiling week here.
Cleveland has allowed one passer to finish higher than QB16 against them this season, which was Lamar Jackson.
Aaron Rodgers is the only other quarterback to reach 15 fantasy points against the Browns other than Jackson, and Cleveland has faced Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Jared Goff.
It is a massive test for this New England offensive line, more so, which can have an impact.
New England has faced a relatively easy schedule in terms of pass rush, which is not the case here.
Maye is going to have to get the ball out quickly.
Maye has gotten the ball out within 2.5 seconds on only 37.9% of his dropbacks, 32nd in the league.
His time to throw under pressure is 3.63 seconds, 30th in the league.
Cleveland has converted 24.3% of their pressures into sacks, second in the league.
Cleveland has forced the quickest time to throw in the NFL (2.61 seconds).
When quarterbacks have held the ball longer than 2.5 seconds against them, they have allowed a 52.7% completion rate (8th) and a league-low 5.3 yards per attempt.
When quarterbacks have gotten rid of the ball with 2.5 seconds, they have allowed a 73% completion rate (18th), 7.5 Y/A (30th), and a 7.1% touchdown rate (26th).
We have seen teams like Detroit and Pittsburgh dial up a quicker passing game to offset the Cleveland pass rush.
On quick throws (within 2.5 seconds), Maye has a league-best 86.5% completion rate, but his depth of target on throws is only 4.0 air yards, 29th in the league.
Dillon Gabriel: Gabriel did not have to do much on Sunday, completing 13 of 18 passes for 116 yards in the runaway win against Miami.
Cleveland threw the ball 12% less than expected on Sunday, with a 15% rate below expectations on first downs.
The weather was rainy, and Miami never posed a challenge, allowing the Browns to remain conservative.
Gabriel has opened his career with QB18, QB25, and QB25 scoring weeks, leaving him as a QB2 for fantasy purposes.
We saw a couple of weeks ago that Cleveland will let him throw when forced to.
Gabriel had 52 attempts against Pittsburgh two weeks ago.
With the way the New England run defense is playing, Cleveland could be forced to push the ball again.
That said, the Patriots have been a weird fantasy defense this season against the pass.
They are 30th in completion rate (72.2%) and 31st in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.1 Y/A) with a 4.6% touchdown rate allowed (16th), but they have not allowed a QB1 scorer this season.
They have only been pushed by Josh Allen, but they have also not let the other QB2 types they have faced regularly turn in spike outings against them.
Running Back
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More Week 8 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Vikings @ Chargers | Thursday Night Football |
| Dolphins @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Colts | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Steelers | Sunday Night Football |
| Commanders @ Chiefs | Monday Night Football |
